ADP$242.27
Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
Moat Score
69/100
ADP has a real but not impenetrable moat built on mission-critical payroll, HR, tax, and PEO workflows that are expensive and disruptive to replace. Its brand, compliance expertise, and scale support high retention and steady recurring revenue, while its broad customer base reinforces product development and operating leverage. However, the market remains competitive, with well-capitalized rivals attacking different segments through cloud-native software, automation, and bundled HR offerings. ADP’s advantage is therefore durable but not absolute: it is strongest in trust, execution, and embedded workflow depth rather than in a structural monopoly. The moat looks stable because switching costs remain high and the company keeps expanding its platform, but the rise of modern SaaS competitors limits the case for a wider moat.
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Financial Score
75/100
ADP’s standout strength is its highly durable, cash-generative earnings model, supported by recurring payroll and human-capital-management revenues. Revenue, net income, and EPS have compounded steadily through FY2025, while gross and operating margins have expanded, reflecting disciplined scale and pricing power. Cash flow is equally robust, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both trending higher and FCF margin reaching 24.5%. The balance sheet is solid but less pristine: liquidity has improved, equity has rebuilt, yet debt rose sharply in FY2025, leaving a tighter current and quick ratio profile than the income statement would suggest. Profitability ratios remain strong, though efficiency is only moderate, and growth is slowing into mid-single digits. Overall, ADP presents a high-quality but not flawless profile—strong on earnings and cash generation, adequate on leverage and liquidity, and consistent with its generally favorable ratings.
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The path of least resistance is modestly higher, with a likely probe of $243.12 and potentially $244.78 if momentum persists. The main downside risk is a retreat toward $239.45 and then $237.84, which would signal that the recent push is losing traction rather than entering a clean breakout phase.
ADP’s technical profile is stronger in the near term than it is over the longer horizon. Momentum is healthy, with price above the 20-day and 50-day averages and MACD supportive, but the stock is also stretched near the upper Bollinger Band and approaching overbought RSI territory. Medium-term trend signals are constructive, yet the death-cross territory flag and only slight separation from the 200-day average keep the broader setup from turning fully decisive. Longer term, the stock is still rebuilding from a deeper drawdown and remains well below its 52-week peak, leaving the recovery incomplete. The key levels to monitor are $243.12-$244.78 on the upside and $239.45-$237.84 on the downside, as those zones should define the next meaningful battleground.
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Frequently asked questions about Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
- Does Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) have an economic moat?
- MoatScan AI rates Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) 69/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. ADP has a real but not impenetrable moat built on mission-critical payroll, HR, tax, and PEO workflows that are expensive and disruptive to replace.Sign in free to see the Moat Type verdict and the pillar-by-pillar reasoning.
- What is Automatic Data Processing, Inc.'s moat score?
- Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) has a moat score of 69/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.Sign in free to see each pillar rating, the Moat Type verdict and the moat trend.
- Is ADP stock overvalued or undervalued?
- MoatScan AI answers this by estimating ADP's intrinsic value with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, then comparing that estimate to the current market price. A share price meaningfully below the estimate is flagged undervalued; meaningfully above it, overvalued. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis.Sign in free to see the fair value estimate, the implied upside or downside, and the verdict.
- What is Automatic Data Processing, Inc.'s fair value estimate?
- MoatScan AI derives Automatic Data Processing, Inc.'s (ADP) fair value per share from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.Sign in free to see the estimate and the full assumptions behind it.
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Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.