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ARM$249.34

Arm Holdings plc

Last Updated
Aug 20, 20268 days ago
Moat & Trend
Management
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Competitive Radar

Moat Score

74/100

Executive Summary

Arm’s moat is built on architecture, not manufacturing. Its greatest strength is the enormous installed base of Arm-compatible software, tools, and engineering know-how that makes the instruction set the default choice across mobile, embedded, and an expanding set of data-center and client workloads. That ecosystem gives Arm meaningful pricing power and recurring royalty streams, but it is not absolute: licensees can multi-home, build semi-custom variants, and in some cases explore alternatives. The result is a real but bounded competitive advantage. The moat is stronger today than it was a few years ago because Arm is broadening beyond smartphones into servers, PCs, and automotive, but it still falls short of an unassailable franchise.

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Last Updated
Aug 20, 20268 days ago
Target Price
Analyst Consensus
FAIR VALUE
Financial Strength

Financial Score

75/100

Executive Summary

Arm Holdings’ most notable strength is its exceptionally resilient, capital-light semiconductor IP model, which supports near-97% gross margins, solid operating profitability, and a very strong balance sheet. Revenue has compounded from $2.7B to $4.9B, reaching $5.2B TTM, though growth has clearly moderated and recent margin gains have been offset by higher R&D and SG&A. Liquidity is excellent, with current assets, cash, and equity all rising materially, while leverage remains minimal and long-term debt is negligible. Cash generation has improved sharply, with TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow both strong, but the record is uneven due to working-capital swings and rising capex. Overall, Arm presents a high-quality but not flawless financial profile: fundamentally robust, moderately volatile in cash flow and earnings, and best described as a solid mid-to-upper tier issuer across the ratings set.

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Last Updated
Aug 20, 2026
Short Term
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Medium Term
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Price Outlook
$249.34Price at Analysis

The most probable near-term move is a modest rebound toward the $253.5 to $263.07 resistance zone, as bullish MACD and Golden Cross context offset the weaker short-term positioning. If that recovery stalls, the key downside risk is a return to $242.82 and then $241.63, where buyers would need to defend to preserve the broader constructive structure.

Technical Overview

ARM’s technical picture is mixed but not broken. Short-term momentum is improving, as MACD is bullish, yet the stock still trades below its 20-day average and in the lower half of its Bollinger Band, which limits conviction. Medium-term conditions are more balanced: the shares remain materially above the 200-day moving average and in Golden Cross territory, but they are still well below the 50-day and the broader range remains sideways. Long term, the moving-average structure stays constructive, but the large gap from the 52-week high keeps the setup from becoming outright bullish. The key levels to monitor are $242.82 and $241.63 on the downside, with $253.5 and $263.07 as the first meaningful upside checkpoints.

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Frequently asked questions about Arm Holdings plc

Does Arm Holdings plc (ARM) have an economic moat?
MoatScan AI rates Arm Holdings plc (ARM) 74/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. Arm’s moat is built on architecture, not manufacturing.Sign in free to see the Moat Type verdict and the pillar-by-pillar reasoning.
What is Arm Holdings plc's moat score?
Arm Holdings plc (ARM) has a moat score of 74/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.Sign in free to see each pillar rating, the Moat Type verdict and the moat trend.
Is ARM stock overvalued or undervalued?
MoatScan AI answers this by estimating ARM's intrinsic value with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, then comparing that estimate to the current market price. A share price meaningfully below the estimate is flagged undervalued; meaningfully above it, overvalued. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis.Sign in free to see the fair value estimate, the implied upside or downside, and the verdict.
What is Arm Holdings plc's fair value estimate?
MoatScan AI derives Arm Holdings plc's (ARM) fair value per share from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.Sign in free to see the estimate and the full assumptions behind it.

Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.