Does Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) have an economic moat?

MoatScan AI rates Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) 60/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. Alibaba remains one of the most important digital commerce platforms in China, with powerful scale across marketplaces, logistics, payments, and cloud services.

What is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.'s moat score?

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) has a moat score of 60/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.

How does BABA's share price compare with its estimated fair value?

MoatScan AI estimates BABA's intrinsic value with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and shows how that estimate compares with the market price at the time of analysis. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis and is a research estimate, not a recommendation.

What is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.'s fair value estimate?

MoatScan AI derives Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.'s (BABA) fair value per share from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.

Back to Database

BABA$108.18

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.

Last Updated

Sep 29, 202613 days ago

Moat & Trend

Management

AI Impact

Competitive Radar

Moat Score

60/100

Executive Summary

Alibaba remains one of the most important digital commerce platforms in China, with powerful scale across marketplaces, logistics, payments, and cloud services. Its core moat comes from ecosystem breadth: Taobao, Tmall, Alibaba.com, Cainiao, and enterprise tools such as DingTalk create a platform merchants can use across multiple workflows. The company also benefits from a widely recognized brand and large data assets that improve matching, merchandising, and fulfillment. That said, Alibaba’s advantages are narrower than its size suggests. Users and sellers can multi-home, PDD and Douyin are winning attention with different engagement models, and regulators have shown they are willing to cap platform power. Cloud and AI add option value, but they remain contested businesses rather than entrenched monopolies.

Network Effects

Marketplace Flywheel Intact

Pillar Strength

7/10

Alibaba’s marketplaces benefit from classic cross-sided reinforcement: more consumers on Taobao and Tmall attract more merchants, while a broader merchant base expands assortment, price competition, and conversion. Alibaba.com and AliExpress add a similar flywheel for cross-border B2B and export sellers. The company also reinforces traffic through Alipay-adjacent payment capabilities, Cainiao logistics, and merchant advertising tools that improve matching and fulfillment. However, the network is not exclusive. Chinese shoppers routinely multi-home across JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Douyin, and merchants spread inventory and marketing spend across multiple platforms. The network effect is real, but value leakage from multi-homing keeps it below the level of a truly dominant platform monopoly.

Switching Costs

Moderate Merchant Friction

Pillar Strength

5.5/10

Switching costs are meaningful for merchants, but not prohibitive. A large seller on Tmall or Taobao builds operational dependence on storefront ratings, customer reviews, ad history, fulfillment integrations, and traffic optimization algorithms, and re-creating that base elsewhere takes time. Alibaba Cloud and DingTalk create some technical lock-in for enterprise users as data, workflows, and collaboration habits accumulate. Still, consumers can change apps instantly, and merchants can shift budget to JD, Pinduoduo, Meituan, or Douyin with limited contractual friction. The company does not have the kind of embedded ERP-style lock-in or long-term exclusive contracts that would make defections rare. That leaves switching costs moderate rather than deep.

Intangible Assets

Strong But Imperfect Brands

Pillar Strength

6/10

Alibaba owns some of China’s most recognizable digital brands, including Taobao, Tmall, AliExpress, Cainiao, DingTalk, and Alibaba Cloud, and those names still carry scale and familiarity with merchants and consumers. The company also holds valuable know-how in payments, logistics orchestration, and cloud infrastructure, plus a growing AI stack around Qwen and related models. But the brand is less pristine than that of global premium franchises because counterfeit concerns, antitrust fines, and political scrutiny have damaged trust. Its patents and software advantages matter, yet they are not tightly exclusive and can be imitated by deep-pocketed rivals. The result is a respectable but not exceptional intangible moat.

Cost Advantages

Scale Helps, Rivals Close

Pillar Strength

5.5/10

Alibaba enjoys some cost advantages from scale. Its enormous transaction volume gives it dense data on consumer behavior, merchant performance, and advertising efficiency, allowing better monetization per visit than smaller rivals. Cainiao and related logistics investments also spread fulfillment and routing costs over huge parcel flows, while Alibaba Cloud benefits from shared infrastructure and procurement at national scale. Yet the cost gap is not wide or durable enough to exclude competition. JD has its own logistics machine, PDD operates a low-cost traffic model, and ByteDance can distribute commerce through content at lower customer-acquisition cost. Alibaba’s scale helps, but rivals have narrowed the economics enough to keep the edge modest.

Efficient Scale

Oligopoly, Not Monopoly

Pillar Strength

6/10

Alibaba operates in markets that are large enough to support only a handful of meaningful national platforms, but not so small that true natural-monopoly economics apply. China’s core e-commerce arena is effectively an oligopoly with Alibaba, JD, PDD, and increasingly ByteDance and Meituan competing for time, traffic, and merchant budgets. In cloud, Alibaba is a leader, yet Huawei Cloud, Tencent Cloud, and state-backed alternatives prevent a locked-in duopoly. Entry is expensive because of technology, logistics, and trust, but incumbency does not stop determined rivals from winning share. The efficient-scale benefit is therefore partial: it raises barriers, but it does not make Alibaba irreplaceable.

Moat Type & Trend

Why this company earns its moat rating, and where the moat is heading

Moat Type

Narrow Moat

Trend

Stable

Why This Rating

Alibaba earns a Narrow Moat rather than Wide because its advantages are strongest at the ecosystem level, not at the level of a locked-in franchise. The company controls massive traffic and merchant relationships across e-commerce, logistics, and payments, but shoppers and sellers can and do spread activity across JD, PDD, Douyin, and Meituan without facing high exit costs. Its brands are powerful, yet the moat is diluted by regulatory limits, periodic trust issues, and the fact that cloud and AI remain highly competitive. Twenty years from now Alibaba should still matter, but not necessarily command the market with the same inevitability that a Wide Moat company would.

Why This Trend

The moat looks Stable because the core marketplace flywheel, merchant data, and logistics integration are still intact, and there is no evidence of a decisive collapse in Alibaba’s ability to attract traffic or sellers. At the same time, pressure from PDD, Douyin, and Meituan has not disappeared, so the moat is not clearly widening. A Positive trend would require sustained share gains or materially better merchant retention; a Negative trend would be signaled by persistent GMV loss, weaker advertising yields, or cloud share erosion that is not offset by AI or international growth.

Management Quality Assessment

Evaluating leadership track record, capital allocation, and governance

Verdict

Concerning

Alibaba is now run by hired management rather than Jack Ma; Eddie Wu has been CEO for about three years, with Joe Tsai as executive chairman. The current team has been more shareholder-friendly via buybacks and a new dividend, reducing shares outstanding meaningfully, but the underlying ROIC has fallen to about 2.5% from roughly 12% in 2023, showing weak capital efficiency. Insider alignment is moderate at the top through Tsai’s large stake, while Wu’s is small; the direction of insider ownership is unclear from available data. Wu’s compensation of about CN¥495 million looks rich relative to performance and peers. Governance has improved structurally through six independently managed business groups, though concentrated voting influence remains a mild red flag.

Key Highlights

Eddie Wu has only about three years as CEO, so the current leadership team has a short public track record; he succeeded Daniel Zhang in 2023.
Alibaba has used cash for buybacks and dividends: shares outstanding fell from about 2.70 billion in FY2021 to 2.35 billion in FY2025, and the annual dividend rose to about US$1.98 per share in FY2025.
Capital efficiency has weakened materially, with ROIC sliding to roughly 2.5% from about 12% in 2023, indicating management has not yet restored strong returns on invested capital.
Joe Tsai owns about 1.5% of the company and Eddie Wu about 0.1%, so insider alignment exists but is not especially strong at the operating CEO level.
Wu’s compensation of roughly CN¥495 million appears elevated relative to Alibaba’s recent operating performance, suggesting a potential pay-for-performance mismatch.

AI Impact Assessment

Evaluating how AI strengthens or disrupts existing moat pillars

Net Pressure. Alibaba’s AI strategy reinforces its wide moat mainly through scale, proprietary commerce data, and cloud distribution: AI can improve Taobao/Tmall search, recommendations, advertising yield, merchant tools, and enterprise cloud retention, all of which deepen switching costs and network effects. That said, the model layer itself looks only partially defensible because low-cost open-source systems and aggressive domestic rivals are rapidly commoditizing basic AI capability. The clearest facts are Alibaba’s heavy AI/cloud investment and triple-digit AI revenue growth; the inference is that these gains can expand the moat only if they convert into durable customer lock-in and margin leverage. Key uncertainty: whether AI demand sustains faster than price competition and chip/geopolitical constraints.

AI Opportunity Highlights

6 / 10

Alibaba Cloud has reported triple-digit AI-related revenue growth for multiple consecutive quarters, showing AI is already monetizing through infrastructure and services.
AI can directly improve search, recommendations, and ad targeting across Taobao and Tmall, lifting monetization inside Alibaba’s first-party commerce ecosystem.
Qwen and related open-source tooling have attracted more than 290,000 companies and developers, creating a funnel into Alibaba Cloud and enterprise services.
Alibaba has committed 380 billion yuan over three years to cloud and AI infrastructure, which can widen its compute and deployment scale versus smaller rivals.

AI Threat Highlights

7 / 10

DeepSeek, ByteDance’s Doubao, and other low-cost or open-source models are driving token prices down and weakening differentiation in the base model layer.
If foundational models remain free or cheap to download, enterprises can switch among providers with limited friction, lowering barriers to entry for rivals.
Alibaba’s AI roadmap depends on advanced chips and cloud infrastructure, leaving it exposed to export controls and other geopolitical constraints.
As AI model quality commoditizes, competitive advantage may shift toward the lowest-cost providers rather than toward Alibaba’s proprietary models.

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Last Updated

Sep 29, 202613 days ago

Target Price

Analyst Consensus

FAIR VALUE

Financial Strength

Financial Score

65/100

Executive Summary

Alibaba’s most notable strength is its still-solid balance sheet, with CNY 724.85B of current assets, CNY 1.11T of equity, and manageable debt of CNY 266.53B providing meaningful financial flexibility. However, that strength is being tested by weaker operating momentum: revenue growth has slowed, operating margin compressed to 6.15% in FY26 and 4.56% TTM, and rising SG&A has outpaced scale benefits. Cash generation has also deteriorated sharply, with operating cash flow falling to CNY 76B in TTM and free cash flow turning negative as capex expanded. Liquidity has weakened as the current ratio fell to 1.36 and the quick ratio to 0.73, even as analyst growth expectations remain constructive. Overall, Alibaba presents a mixed but resilient profile: strong strategic scale and balance-sheet depth offset by softer profitability, weaker cash conversion, and reduced operating leverage, consistent with its mid-range ratings.

Income Statement

Revenue · Margins · Profitability

Section Score

6/10

Revenue has grown from CNY 853.1B to CNY 1.02T over FY22-FY26, but momentum has clearly slowed, with FY26 growth down to 2.74% and TTM at 4.42% versus stronger prior years. Net income improved sharply through FY25, then weakened in FY26 and TTM, suggesting a deceleration rather than a clean step-up. Gross margin stayed fairly stable around 37%-40%, but operating margin compressed materially to 6.15% in FY26 and 4.56% TTM as SG&A surged to CNY 278.1B. Earnings quality is mixed: higher interest/investment income helped, while impairment and asset writedowns repeatedly weighed on results. Compared with large-scale internet/platform peers, growth is slower and profitability less consistent. The biggest flag is rising expenses without matching operating leverage.

Financials are in millions CNY unless otherwise specified

Metric	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	FY 2026	TTM
Period Ending	Mar 31, 2022	Mar 31, 2023	Mar 31, 2024	Mar 31, 2025	Mar 31, 2026	Jun 30, 2026
Revenue	853,062	868,687	941,168	996,347	1,023,670	1,044,971
Revenue Growth	18.93%	1.83%	8.34%	5.86%	2.74%	4.42%
Net Income	62,249	72,783	80,009	130,109	103,592	73,557
Net Income Growth	-58.78%	17.03%	9.97%	62.36%	-18.20%	-50.56%
Profit Margin	7.26%	8.35%	8.47%	12.99%	10.35%	7.02%

Data as of Jun 30, 2026

Balance Sheet

Assets · Liabilities · Equity

Section Score

7.5/10

Alibaba’s balance sheet remains solid, with CNY 724.85B of current assets against CNY 532.26B of current liabilities, leaving working capital of CNY 192.60B. Liquidity weakened versus prior years because cash and short-term investments fell to CNY 385.70B from CNY 571.03B in FY 2024, and current assets declined from the FY 2024 peak. Even so, total assets rose to CNY 1.96T, supported by higher long-term investments and a larger property, plant and equipment base. Total liabilities increased to CNY 848.22B, but shareholders’ equity also advanced to CNY 1.11T, keeping the capital structure healthy. Debt remains manageable at CNY 266.53B, though the sharp cash reduction and rising liabilities are the main watchpoints.

Financials are in millions CNY unless otherwise specified

Metric	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	FY 2026	Current
Period Ending	Mar 31, 2022	Mar 31, 2023	Mar 31, 2024	Mar 31, 2025	Mar 31, 2026	Jun 30, 2026
Total Current Assets	638,535	697,966	752,864	674,049	610,769	724,854
Total Assets	1,695,553	1,753,044	1,764,829	1,804,227	1,909,570	1,962,109
Total Current Liabilities	383,784	385,351	421,507	435,346	476,398	532,257
Total Liabilities	613,360	630,123	652,230	714,121	783,300	848,215

Data as of Jun 30, 2026

Cash Flow Statement

Operations · Investing · Financing

Section Score

6/10

Cash generation has weakened materially. Operating cash flow rose from CNY 143B in FY2022 to CNY 200B in FY2023, then slipped to CNY 183B and CNY 164B before dropping to CNY 76B in TTM, well below the latest FY level. Reinvestment has become much heavier, with capital expenditures expanding from CNY 53B in FY2022 to CNY 126B in FY2026 TTM, pushing free cash flow from CNY 166B in FY2023 to negative CNY 50B in FY2026 and negative CNY 77B TTM. Working-capital swings remain meaningful, while share repurchases and dividends continue, though buybacks slowed sharply in TTM. Overall, cash quality is mixed and current FCF coverage is weak.

Financials are in millions CNY unless otherwise specified

Metric	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	FY 2026	TTM
Period Ending	Mar 31, 2022	Mar 31, 2023	Mar 31, 2024	Mar 31, 2025	Mar 31, 2026	Jun 30, 2026
Operating Cash Flow	142,759	199,752	182,593	163,509	76,213	78,486
Operating Cash Flow Growth	-38.41%	39.92%	-8.59%	-10.45%	-53.39%	-47.87%
Free Cash Flow	89,450	165,422	150,506	77,537	-49,850	-76,579
Free Cash Flow Growth	-53.00%	84.93%	-9.02%	-48.48%	—	—
Free Cash Flow Margin	10.49%	19.04%	15.99%	7.78%	-4.87%	-7.33%

Data as of Jun 30, 2026

Key Ratios

Liquidity · Leverage · Efficiency · Returns

Section Score

5.5/10

Alibaba shows a mixed operating profile. Liquidity has weakened: the current ratio fell from 1.81 in FY2023 to 1.36 currently, while the quick ratio declined from 1.53 to 0.73, suggesting less room to cover short-term obligations. Leverage remains moderate, with debt/equity rising from 0.16 to 0.24 and debt/EBITDA moving up to 2.68, though net debt is still modest overall. Efficiency is fairly stable, with asset turnover holding around 0.50-0.56 and inventory turnover improving through FY2026, but limited receivables data restricts a fuller view. Profitability has softened materially: ROE, ROA, ROIC, and ROCE all peaked earlier in the period and have since fallen, indicating weaker capital returns and a less efficient earnings profile.

Ratios are dimensionless unless otherwise noted

Metric	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	FY 2026	Current
Period Ending	Mar 31, 2022	Mar 31, 2023	Mar 31, 2024	Mar 31, 2025	Mar 31, 2026	Sep 29, 2026
Debt / Equity Ratio	0.16	0.17	0.19	0.23	0.25	0.24
Quick Ratio	1.37	1.53	1.52	1.16	0.86	0.73
Current Ratio	1.66	1.81	1.79	1.55	1.28	1.36
ROEReturn on Equity (ROE)	4.35%	5.95%	6.38%	11.44%	9.22%	6.36%
ROAReturn on Assets (ROA)	3.56%	3.85%	4.93%	5.31%	2.12%	1.56%
ROICReturn on Invested Capital (ROIC)	7.76%	10.74%	13.68%	14.28%	4.86%	3.08%
ROCEReturn on Capital Employed (ROCE)	7.40%	7.80%	10.30%	11.10%	4.40%	3.30%

Data as of Sep 29, 2026

Growth

Revenue · EPS · Valuation · Estimates

Section Score

7.5/10

Alibaba’s revenue trend shows a clear slowdown from CNY 853.06B to CNY 868.69B, then a rebound to CNY 941.17B and CNY 996.35B, before analyst estimates point to a brief pause at CNY 1.02T and then stronger growth to CNY 1.12T and CNY 1.27T. That suggests a transition from uneven recovery to firmer compounding. EPS has been far more volatile: strong improvement through FY 2025 is followed by an uneven forward pattern, with forecast growth swinging sharply across the two covered years, implying earnings volatility rather than a smooth margin story. Sentiment is very constructive: Strong Buy consensus with 40 analysts, and the recommendation mix has stayed stable at 30 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, and only 2 Hold/Sell combined.

Third-party Analyst Price Targets

Low$95.15-12.04%

Median$187.63+73.44%

Average$185.17+71.17%

High$238.08+120.08%

Strong BuyConsensus rating and price targets published by third-party analysts. Not a MoatScan AI view.

40 analysts

Third-party Analyst Recommendation Trends

Rating	Apr '26	May '26	Jun '26	Jul '26	Aug '26	Sep '26
Strong Buy	31	30	30	30	30	30
Buy	8	8	8	8	8	8
Hold	2	2	1	1	1	1
Sell	1	1	1	1	1	1
Strong Sell	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	42	41	40	40	40	40

Forecast · Analyst Estimates

Revenue This Year1.12T

+9.65%from 1.02T

FY 2027

Revenue Next Year1.27T

+13.39%from 1.12T

FY 2028

EPS This Year· non-GAAP adj.5.65

+68.66%from 3.35

FY 2027

EPS Next Year· non-GAAP adj.7.92

+40.18%from 5.65

FY 2028

Historical · Reported Actuals

Metric	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	FY 2026
Revenue	853.06B	868.69B	941.17B	996.35B	1.02T
Revenue Growth	+18.93%	+1.83%	+8.34%	+5.86%	+2.74%
EPS (GAAP diluted)	22.74	27.46	31.24	53.59	44.00
EPS Growth	-58.42%	+20.76%	+13.77%	+71.54%	-17.90%

Revenue in CNY · EPS per share · Price targets in USD

Data as of Mar 31, 2026 · Forecast EPS is analyst non-GAAP adjusted; historical EPS is GAAP diluted — not directly comparable.

Fair Value Estimation

DCF · Model estimate vs. price +15.7% · Price below model estimate

AI Fair Value Estimate (DCF)

$125.15vs$108.18

Model estimate vs. price+15.7%

Price below model estimate

A discounted cash flow framework fits Alibaba because the business is already cash-generative and its operating profile can be modeled through a multi-year ramp in revenue, margins, and reinvestment intensity. The cash-flow path points to expanding free cash flow, with capex held disciplined relative to sales and growth gradually fading as the model matures; the valuation is converted at 1 CNY = 0.1493 USD.

AI Valuation Commentary

A DCF is the right lens for Alibaba because intrinsic value is driven by future cash generation rather than near-term market sentiment. The model assumes a 10.4% discount rate, 4% terminal growth, 4.86% five-year revenue CAGR, 21.61% average EBITDA margin, and capex at 6.95% of revenue, making margin durability and the fade to terminal growth the main sensitivity drivers. On those assumptions, fair value is 125.15 USD per share versus a current price of 108.18 USD, implying a 15.69% margin of safety and an Undervalued verdict. A stronger margin trajectory or lower WACC would improve upside; weaker growth or margin compression would narrow it.

DCF Assumptions

WACC

10.4%

Weighted avg cost of capital

Revenue Growth (5Y)

4.9%

CAGR assumption

EBITDA Margin

21.6%

Steady-state projection

CapEx / Revenue

7.0%

Capital investment

Terminal Growth

4.0%

Long-run growth rate

Projection Period

5 yrs

Explicit forecast horizon

Projected Cash Flows

Values in millions CNY

Year	Revenue	EBITDA	FCF	Discounted FCF
Yr 1	1,111,422	174,499	60,863	55,130
Yr 2	1,133,651	217,850	89,737	73,626
Yr 3	1,193,166	267,466	121,494	90,292
Yr 4	1,270,988	312,276	153,014	103,004
Yr 5	1,343,768	351,178	173,191	105,604
Terminal Value (PV)				1,716,063

Key Valuation Ratios

Current vs 5-year average

PE Ratio

24.82x

5Y avg 21.46x

+15.7% vs avg

Forward PE

13.76x

5Y avg 12.78x

+7.7% vs avg

PS Ratio

1.76x

5Y avg 1.96x

-10.3% vs avg

A multiple below its own multi-year average can indicate the stock is cheaper than its recent history — context, not a standalone signal.

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Last Updated

Aug 10, 2026

Short Term

Medium Term

Long Term

Technical Overview

$128.41Price at Analysis

BABA’s technical profile is improving in the short run, but the higher-timeframe trend has not yet fully turned. Momentum indicators are supportive, with price above the 20-day and 50-day averages and MACD still positive, yet the stock remains below the 200-day moving average and in Death Cross territory, which keeps the intermediate and long-term setup from becoming outright bullish. The action also shows signs of near-term stretching, as price is near the upper Bollinger Band and volume has contracted. The most relevant levels to watch are $128.67–$130.27 overhead, where near-term resistance is clustered, and $125.68/$123.8 on the downside, where support would need to hold to preserve the recovery structure.

Short Term

1 to 4 weeks

Uptrend

BABA’s near-term structure is constructive: price is trading above the 20-day moving average, MACD is bullish, and RSI at 63.8 sits in a favorable momentum zone without yet being decisively overbought. The main caution is that price is pressing near the upper Bollinger Band while relative volume is contracting, which suggests upside may continue but with increasing risk of near-term consolidation.

Key Indicators

Price vs 20-day MA+7.92% above

Price vs 50-day MA+12.83% above

RSI (14-day)63.8

RSI InterpretationApproaching overbought

MACD TrendPositive (above signal)

Bollinger PositionNear upper band

Volume TrendContracting

Support

$126.78$126.12$125.15

Resistance

$128.67$129.33$130.25

At $128.41, BABA is closest to daily resistance at $128.67, with nearby support at $126.78 and then $126.12. A test of the $128.67–$130.25 resistance band looks likely in the 1–4 week window, while a pullback toward $126.78 would be the key short-term downside check.

Medium Term

1 to 6 months

Sideways

The intermediate picture is mixed. BABA is above the 50-day moving average and has regained short-term trend strength, but it remains below the 200-day moving average and is still operating in Death Cross territory, which limits conviction on a sustained trend reversal. The sideways range position reinforces a market that is improving, but not yet clearly trending.

Key Indicators

Price vs 50-day MA+12.83% above

Price vs 200-day MA-8.34% below

52-Week Range PositionMiddle third (36%)

Trend DirectionSideways

MA Cross SignalDeath Cross territory

Relative Volume0.59x avg

Support

$125.68$122.96$115.71

Resistance

$129.12$135.65

Weekly structure places immediate resistance at $129.12, with stronger overhead supply at $135.65, while support sits at $125.68 and $122.96. The $125.68 area also aligns with the broader recovery zone above the 50-day moving average, making it an important pivot to monitor over the next 1–6 months.

Long Term

6 months and beyond

Downtrend

The long-term trend remains cautious because BABA is still 8.34% below the 200-day moving average and the recent Death Cross continues to weigh on the broader structure. Although the stock is no longer near its 52-week low, it remains in the middle third of its yearly range and the longer-horizon trend is still best described as sideways to down.

Key Indicators

Price vs 200-day MA-8.34% below

52-Week High$192.67

52-Week Low$91.99

Distance from 52w High-33.4%

BB Bandwidth19.4%

MA CrossoverRecent Death Cross (86 days ago)

Support

$123.80$104.10$102.88

Resistance

$130.27$131.49$140.73

Monthly pivots frame the broader range with resistance at $130.27, $131.49, and $140.73, while support extends to $123.8, $104.1, and $102.88. Over 6+ months, the market will likely need to clear the low-$130s to challenge the upper range, while a sustained break below $123.8 would reopen the lower structural band.

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Frequently asked questions about Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.

Does Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) have an economic moat?: MoatScan AI rates Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) 60/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. Alibaba remains one of the most important digital commerce platforms in China, with powerful scale across marketplaces, logistics, payments, and cloud services.Sign in free to see the Moat Type verdict and the pillar-by-pillar reasoning.
What is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.'s moat score?: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) has a moat score of 60/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.Sign in free to see each pillar rating, the Moat Type verdict and the moat trend.
How does BABA's share price compare with its estimated fair value?: MoatScan AI estimates BABA's intrinsic value with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and shows how that estimate compares with the market price at the time of analysis. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis and is a research estimate, not a recommendation.Sign in free to see the fair value estimate and how it compares with the price.
What is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.'s fair value estimate?: MoatScan AI derives Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.'s (BABA) fair value per share from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.Sign in free to see the estimate and the full assumptions behind it.

Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. MoatScan AI is an educational research tool. It is not licensed or registered with the Securities Commission Malaysia or any other financial regulator, and it holds no positions in, and receives no compensation from, any company analysed.

BABA$108.18

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Frequently asked questions about Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.

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