BKNG$182.64

Booking Holdings Inc.

Last Updated

Jul 2, 202612 days ago

Moat & Trend

Management

Strong

AI Impact

Competitive Radar

Moat Score

67/100

Executive Summary

Booking Holdings has a credible but not impregnable moat built on scale, brand recognition, and a two-sided travel marketplace spanning Booking.com, Agoda, Priceline, KAYAK, and OpenTable. Its largest advantage is the broad supply and demand loop: more inventory attracts travelers, and more travelers attract suppliers, while shared data and technology improve conversion and pricing. However, travel remains highly price-sensitive, consumers often multi-home, hotels push direct bookings, and powerful rivals such as Expedia, Airbnb, Google, and regional specialists keep the market competitive. The result is a durable but narrower advantage rather than a fortress. Booking’s moat looks stable overall, with incremental strengthening from cross-sell and technology, but not enough evidence of a broad, long-lived wide moat.

Network Effects

Large Two-Sided Ecosystem

Pillar Strength

7.5/10

Booking benefits from genuine cross-side network effects. A larger base of travelers makes the platform more valuable to hotels, apartment hosts, car-rental firms, and restaurant partners, while a broader supply set improves selection and pricing for travelers. The effect is strongest in high-density lodging markets where breadth and liquidity matter, especially in Europe and parts of Asia. Still, the network is not perfectly exclusive because travelers can compare options on multiple platforms and suppliers often list inventory across several channels. The reinforcing loop is real, but it is partially diluted by multi-homing, metasearch, and direct booking behavior. Even so, the scale of Booking’s inventory and traffic creates a meaningful barrier that smaller entrants struggle to match quickly.

Switching Costs

Moderate User Lock-In

Pillar Strength

6.5/10

Switching costs are meaningful but not deep. Travelers accumulate saved preferences, loyalty benefits, app familiarity, and booking histories across Booking’s ecosystem, which can create behavioral inertia and encourage repeat use. On the supply side, hotels and partners may be embedded in Booking’s payment, visibility, analytics, and API workflows, making a full migration cumbersome. However, these costs are not prohibitive because consumers can compare rates elsewhere with minimal friction, and suppliers regularly multi-home across OTAs, direct channels, and meta-search. The company’s loyalty programs and cross-sell across lodging, flights, rentals, and attractions improve stickiness, but they do not create hard lock-in. Switching is feasible, which limits moat depth compared with software or payments platforms with stronger embedded workflows.

Intangible Assets

Powerful Global Brands

Pillar Strength

7/10

Booking’s intangible assets are a major strength. Booking.com is one of the most recognized travel brands globally, and the portfolio also includes Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, Rentalcars.com, and OpenTable. These brands support trust, conversion, and repeat usage, especially in markets where travel buyers want a familiar, low-friction booking experience. The company also owns proprietary search, ranking, pricing, and reservation technology that improves monetization and customer matching. That said, the brand advantage is meaningful rather than untouchable: many travelers still shop by price, and competing platforms can replicate comparable interfaces and features with enough investment. Booking’s intangible assets are therefore durable and commercially valuable, but not protected by legal exclusivity strong enough to ensure dominant pricing power on their own.

Cost Advantages

Scale-Led Efficiency

Pillar Strength

7/10

Booking enjoys real cost advantages from scale. Its large booking volume lets the company spread engineering, marketing, customer service, and infrastructure costs across a massive transaction base, improving operating leverage over smaller rivals. The platform can also optimize marketing spend using extensive traffic and conversion data, which supports higher return on advertising than many competitors can achieve. Shared technology across brands further lowers per-transaction overhead. Still, the cost edge is not unassailable because online travel remains marketing-intensive, search costs can rise, and rivals with deep pockets can bid aggressively for traffic. Hotels’ push for direct booking also pressures economics. Booking’s scale makes it a low-cost contender, but the advantage is more about efficiency and leverage than a structurally unbeatable cost position.

Efficient Scale

Large But Competitive

Pillar Strength

5.5/10

Booking operates in a market with scale benefits, but not a true natural monopoly. Online travel shows some efficient-scale characteristics because large platforms can invest heavily in technology, brand, and marketing while smaller entrants struggle to build liquidity. In certain regions and categories, a few players dominate attention and inventory, which helps Booking. However, the broader market is still contestable: Expedia, Airbnb, Google, direct hotel channels, and niche specialists all compete for both traffic and supplier relationships. The presence of several large rivals means Booking does not enjoy the kind of protected oligopoly seen in utilities or regulated infrastructure. Its size is important, but the industry remains dynamic and share can shift. As a result, efficient scale supports the moat, yet only to a moderate degree.

Management Quality Assessment

Evaluating leadership track record, capital allocation, and governance

Verdict

Strong

Glenn Fogel has served as CEO since 2017 and has spent about 25 years at Booking, rising through finance and operating roles, which suggests strong institutional knowledge rather than founder control. Capital allocation has been disciplined: management has favored large share repurchases over dividends, while the business has continued to generate very high ROIC, recently near the mid-90s and historically above 70%. Acquisitions such as Booking.com, Kayak, OpenTable and Agoda were strategically additive. Insider ownership is low at roughly 0.08% for Fogel and appears to have drifted lower via net selling. CEO pay is rich at about $35 million, but mostly equity-based and broadly supported by performance. Governance looks clean, with a largely independent board.

Key Highlights

Glenn Fogel has been CEO since 2017 and has roughly 25 years of experience inside the company, indicating deep operating knowledge and continuity in strategy.
Booking has used disciplined capital allocation, prioritizing share repurchases and maintaining very high ROIC, with recent readings near the mid-90s and a multi-year level above 70%.
The acquisition record has been largely strategic rather than empire-building: Booking.com, Agoda, Kayak and OpenTable expanded the platform into a broader global travel ecosystem.
Insider ownership is low, with Fogel holding about 0.08% of shares, and recent insider activity has been net selling, so alignment is present but not especially strong.
CEO compensation is high at roughly $35 million annually, but it is mostly equity/performance based and does not look obviously misaligned given the company’s strong operating results.

AI Impact Assessment

Evaluating how AI strengthens or disrupts existing moat pillars

AI Opportunity

5/ 10

AI Threat

6/ 10

Net AI Impact

-1Neutral

Net Pressure. Booking’s moat still rests on scale, brand, supply depth, and a large corpus of historical booking and traveler behavior data, which AI can use to improve search relevance, personalization, conversion, and customer service. That makes AI a meaningful defensive enhancer, not a new standalone moat. The risk is that the same AI advances lower discovery and booking friction for consumers, making it easier for hotels, Google, or agentic interfaces to bypass OTA intermediaries and compress paid search economics. Facts support early uplift from Booking’s AI assistants and trip-planning tools; the key inference is whether those gains offset traffic disintermediation. The near-term uncertainty is how quickly travel discovery shifts from keyword search to conversational agents.

AI Opportunity Highlights

Booking’s proprietary booking and trip-behavior data can improve personalization and ranking inside its own funnel, raising conversion on high-intent traffic.
Its AI assistant offerings, including Penny and Booking.com trip-planning tools, can deepen customer engagement across inspiration, booking, and post-booking service.
AI can improve partner effectiveness and internal automation, supporting margin resilience in a business with large customer-service and merchandising workflows.
Embedding AI across multiple consumer brands helps keep travelers inside Booking’s ecosystem rather than handing them to generic assistants.

AI Threat Highlights

Agentic AI interfaces can bypass OTA search pages and send travelers directly to hotels or other booking endpoints, weakening Booking’s intermediary role.
Google’s AI travel booking expansion increases the odds that discovery shifts to a platform with superior default traffic and distribution.
Natural-language travel planning lowers the friction advantage of OTA search and makes itinerary generation easier for new entrants to replicate.
If search visibility and referral economics are compressed by AI, Booking’s ability to monetize traffic through paid placements and merchandising could erode.

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Last Updated

Jul 2, 202612 days ago

Target Price

Analyst Consensus

Buy37 analysts

FAIR VALUE

Financial Strength

Financial Score

72/100

Executive Summary

Booking Holdings’ defining strength is its exceptional cash generation and profitability: revenue has continued to compound, operating margins remain elite, and free cash flow is consistently near $9 billion with only modest capex. That resilience is reinforced by improving asset efficiency and manageable leverage relative to EBITDA, while forward growth and analyst expectations still point to steady mid- to high-single-digit expansion. However, this strength is offset by a materially weaker balance sheet, where liabilities have outpaced assets, equity has turned deeply negative, and liquidity has narrowed to only a modest cushion. Income statement momentum has also normalized, with net income and non-operating items showing some volatility. Overall, BKNG presents a high-quality earnings and cash flow profile but a structurally fragile capital base, making its financial health strong operationally yet only moderate on balance, consistent with the mixed ratings.

Income Statement

Revenue · Margins · Profitability

Section Score

8/10

Revenue has compounded strongly from FY2021 to FY2025, though growth has clearly moderated from post-pandemic rebound rates to low-teens levels; TTM growth of 15.0% is slightly better than FY2025, suggesting modest re-acceleration. Net income has also expanded, but FY2025 dipped 8.1% despite higher revenue, indicating some normalization after prior strong gains. Margins remain excellent and broadly stable to improving, with gross margin rising to 87.4% and operating margin reaching 32.8%, showing strong conversion of bookings growth into earnings. That said, other non-operating expense has been volatile and interest expense has risen, creating noise in pretax results. Against typical online travel peers, this is top-tier profitability, with the main risks being expense creep, non-operating swings, and slowing earnings momentum.

Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified

Metric	TTM	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023	FY 2022	FY 2021
Period Ending	Mar 31, 2026	Dec 31, 2025	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2021
Revenue	27,687	26,917	23,739	21,365	17,090	10,958
Revenue Growth (YoY)	14.95%	13.39%	11.11%	25.01%	55.96%	61.24%
Net Income	6,154	5,404	5,882	4,289	3,058	1,165
Net Income Growth	13.15%	-8.13%	37.14%	40.26%	162.49%	1,874.58%
Profit Margin	22.23%	20.08%	24.78%	20.07%	17.89%	10.63%

Data as of Mar 31, 2026

Balance Sheet

Assets · Liabilities · Equity

Section Score

4/10

Liquidity is adequate but not robust: cash and equivalents rose from $11.1bn in FY2021 to $17.2bn in FY2025, while total current assets increased to $22.3bn, yet current liabilities expanded faster to $16.7bn, leaving only a modest current asset cushion. Solvency is the main weakness. Total liabilities climbed from $17.5bn to $34.8bn over the period and reached $36.4bn TTM, exceeding total assets and driving shareholders’ equity to negative $5.6bn in FY2025 and negative $8.7bn TTM. Debt also increased to $19.3bn, with net debt remaining meaningful. Asset quality is mixed: goodwill and intangibles remain material, but tangible book value is deeply negative, highlighting structural leverage and balance sheet fragility.

Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified

Metric	TTM	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023	FY 2022	FY 2021
Period Ending	Mar 31, 2026	Dec 31, 2025	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2021
Total Current Assets	20,934	22,264	20,491	17,034	15,798	13,145
Total Assets	27,720	29,264	27,708	24,342	25,361	23,641
Total Current Liabilities	19,811	16,698	15,647	13,330	8,474	6,246
Total Liabilities	36,444	34,842	31,728	27,086	22,579	17,463

Data as of Mar 31, 2026

Cash Flow Statement

Operations · Investing · Financing

Section Score

8.5/10

Cash generation is strong and broadly consistent. Operating cash flow rose from $2.8B in FY2021 to $9.4B in FY2025, with TTM at $9.3B, essentially in line with the latest year. Free cash flow follows the same pattern, reaching $9.1B in FY2025 versus $7.9B in FY2024, supported by modest capital spending of roughly $300M to $430M annually. The FCF margin stayed healthy at 33.8% in FY2025 and 32.6% TTM. Working capital movements, especially receivables, remain a noticeable drag, but not enough to weaken overall quality. Capital allocation is aggressive, with large share repurchases, added dividends, and meaningful debt repayment, which suggests disciplined use of cash rather than hoarding.

Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified

Metric	TTM	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023	FY 2022	FY 2021
Period Ending	Mar 31, 2026	Dec 31, 2025	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2021
Operating Cash Flow	9,341	9,409	8,323	7,344	6,554	2,820
Operating Cash Flow Growth	4.93%	13.05%	13.33%	12.05%	132.41%	3,217.65%
Free Cash Flow	9,033	9,087	7,894	6,999	6,186	2,516
Free Cash Flow Growth	-0.59%	15.11%	12.79%	13.14%	145.87%	—

Data as of Mar 31, 2026

Key Ratios

Liquidity · Leverage · Efficiency · Returns

Section Score

7.5/10

Liquidity has softened over time but remains adequate. The current ratio fell from 2.1 to 1.06 and the quick ratio from 2.0 to 0.99, indicating less short-term cushion than in prior years, though still near manageable levels. Leverage looks controlled: debt to EBITDA improved from 3.87 to 1.97, while net debt to EBITDA stayed low at 0.30, showing debt is not excessive relative to earnings. Efficiency has improved steadily, with asset turnover rising from 0.48 to 0.97, suggesting better use of assets. Profitability is strong on an operating basis, with ROA climbing to 24.9%, ROIC and ROCE improving meaningfully, although ROE is distorted by negative equity and not very informative.

Ratios are dimensionless unless otherwise noted

Metric	Current	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023	FY 2022	FY 2021
Period Ending	Jul 1, 2026	Dec 31, 2025	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2021
Debt / Equity Ratio	-2.17	-3.46	-4.25	-5.39	4.69	1.83
Quick Ratio	0.99	1.26	1.24	1.2	1.73	2
Current Ratio	1.06	1.33	1.31	1.28	1.86	2.1
ROEReturn on Equity (ROE)	-86.06%	-112.61%	-173.92%	22,573.70%	68.26%	21.05%
ROAReturn on Assets (ROA)	24.90%	24.50%	23.42%	18.37%	16.23%	8.72%
ROICReturn on Invested Capital (ROIC)	69.31%	56.69%	52.83%	63.26%	81.78%	31.72%
ROCEReturn on Capital Employed (ROCE)	88.24%	71.67%	65.49%	41.83%	29.76%	13.93%

Data as of Jul 1, 2026

Growth

Revenue · EPS · Valuation · Estimates

Section Score

8/10

Booking Holdings shows a clear shift from rapid post-2021 recovery to steadier compounding. Revenue growth has moderated from the 2022 rebound into a more sustainable high-single-digit to low-double-digit range, and the forward estimates point to continued mid-to-high single-digit expansion. EPS growth has been more volatile than revenue, with strong gains in the historical period, a temporary dip in 2025, and then a projected rebound in 2026–2027, suggesting earnings leverage improves again. Forward P/E in the mid-teens looks broadly consistent with that growth profile. Analyst sentiment is constructive: a Buy consensus from 37 analysts, a tight concentration of Strong Buy and Buy ratings, and stable monthly trends with no deterioration in the recommendation mix.

Analyst Price Targets

Low$175-4.18%

Median$220+20.46%

Average$224.38+22.85%

High$298+63.16%

BuyConsensus rating based on analyst coverage

37 analysts

Recommendation Trends

Rating	Jun '26	May '26	Apr '26	Mar '26	Feb '26	Jan '26
Strong Buy	24	24	25	24	24	23
Buy	6	6	6	6	6	5
Hold	7	7	7	8	8	11
Sell	0	0	0	0	0	0
Strong Sell	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	37	37	38	38	38	39

Forecast · Analyst Estimates

Revenue This Year29.38B

+9.13%from 26.92B

FY 2026

Revenue Next Year32.10B

+9.26%from 29.38B

FY 2027

EPS This Year· non-GAAP adj.10.45+14.60%Fwd P/E 17.5x

EPS Next Year· non-GAAP adj.12.30+17.70%Fwd P/E 14.8x

Historical · Reported Actuals

Metric	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023	FY 2022	FY 2021
Revenue	26.92B	23.74B	21.36B	17.09B	10.96B
Revenue Growth	+13.39%	+11.11%	+25.01%	+55.96%	—
EPS (GAAP diluted)	6.62	6.91	4.70	3.05	1.13
EPS Growth	-4.20%	+47.02%	+54.10%	+169.91%	—

Revenue in USD · EPS per share · Price targets in USD

Data as of Dec 31, 2025 · Forecast EPS is analyst non-GAAP adjusted; historical EPS is GAAP diluted — not directly comparable.

Fair Value Estimation

DCF · +20.7% Margin of Safety · Undervalued

AI Fair Value Estimate (DCF)

$220.52vs$182.64

Margin of Safety+20.7%

Undervalued — Margin of safety detected

A discounted cash flow framework fits Booking Holdings well because the business is highly cash generative, with scalable economics and a revenue base that can be projected through cycle and network effects. The cash-flow path points to strong margin expansion and disciplined capital intensity as free cash flow grows faster than revenue, while the gradual fade in growth toward the terminal period supports a normalized steady-state valuation.

AI Valuation Verdict

A discounted cash flow lens is appropriate for Booking Holdings because the company generates substantial cash, scales efficiently, and can be modeled through a visible operating ramp. The valuation assumes a 9.1% discount rate, 3% terminal growth, a 13.82% five-year revenue CAGR, a 34.12% average EBITDA margin, and capex held near 1.91% of revenue. That setup produces a fair value of $220.52 per share, above the current $182.64 price, implying a 20.74% margin of safety and an Undervalued verdict. The result is most sensitive to WACC, terminal growth, and whether margin durability holds. Stronger monetization and cash conversion would support upside; weaker growth or margin compression would challenge it.

DCF Assumptions

WACC

9.1%

Weighted avg cost of capital

Revenue Growth (5Y)

13.8%

CAGR assumption

EBITDA Margin

34.1%

Steady-state projection

CapEx / Revenue

1.9%

Capital investment

Terminal Growth

3.0%

Long-run growth rate

Projection Period

5 yrs

Explicit forecast horizon

Projected Cash Flows

Values in millions USD

Year	Revenue	EBITDA	FCF	Discounted FCF
Yr 1	31,269	10,647	2,646	2,425
Yr 2	37,002	12,591	9,217	7,744
Yr 3	41,569	14,175	10,466	8,059
Yr 4	46,075	15,740	11,783	8,317
Yr 5	52,488	17,975	13,307	8,609
Terminal Value (PV)				145,366

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Last Updated

Jul 8, 2026

Short Term

Bullish1–4 weeks

Medium Term

Bearish1–6 months

Long Term

Bearish6m+

Price Outlook

$174.48Price at Analysis

The path of least resistance over the next few sessions is modestly higher, with a retest of $178.13 and then $179.66 as the most likely upside sequence if momentum persists. The key downside risk is a loss of $174.09 and especially $172.79, which would expose $170.65 and keep the medium-term trend under pressure.

Technical Overview

BKNG’s technical profile is mixed in the short run but still challenged on the broader horizon. Near-term momentum has improved, with MACD positive and price holding close to the 20-day average, yet the move is not backed by strong volume. Medium and long-term structure remains defensive because the stock is below the 200-day average and still in Death Cross territory, with the 52-week range position stuck in the lower third. The most important levels to watch are the $174.09–$176.53 band on the upside/downside balance and the $172.79 weekly support, which should determine whether this rebound can broaden into a more durable recovery. If BKNG fails to reclaim the upper pivot cluster, the broader range likely continues to cap progress.

Short Term

1 to 4 weeks

Bullish

BKNG’s near-term setup is constructive, with price holding essentially at the 20-day average and MACD still above its signal line. RSI is neutral rather than overextended, which leaves room for follow-through, though the very light relative volume suggests the 9.47% move today may need confirmation.

Key Indicators

Price vs 20-day MA+0.02% above

Price vs 50-day MA+3.54% above

RSI (14-day)48.8

RSI InterpretationNeutral

MACD TrendBullish (above signal)

Bollinger PositionMiddle

Volume TrendContracting

Support

$174.09$172.78$170.65

Resistance

$178.13$179.66$181.79

The nearest short-term support is $174.09, essentially aligned with the current price and the monthly pivot area, making it the first level most likely to be tested in the next 1–4 weeks. Above that, resistance at $178.13 is the key initial hurdle, with $179.66 and $181.79 layered overhead if momentum extends.

Medium Term

1 to 6 months

Bearish

The intermediate trend remains weak because BKNG is still below its 200-day moving average and in Death Cross territory, even though it sits modestly above the 50-day average. The lower-third 52-week range position and sideways trend direction imply that longer-duration buyers have not yet reclaimed control.

Key Indicators

Price vs 50-day MA+3.54% above

Price vs 200-day MA-7.28% below

52-Week Range PositionLower third (30%)

Trend DirectionSideways

MA Cross SignalDeath Cross territory

Relative Volume0.12x avg

Support

$172.79$168.87

Resistance

$176.53$178.67$186.33

Weekly support at $172.79 is the closest downside marker, with $168.87 as the next major buffer; on the upside, $176.53 sits just above the current price and $178.67 aligns closely with the 50-day area, while $186.33 is the larger breakout threshold. Given the price’s proximity to the 50-day but distance from the 200-day, these levels are likely to remain active within 1–6 months.

Long Term

6 months and beyond

Bearish

The long-term picture is still defensive: price is materially below the 200-day average, the MA structure remains in Death Cross territory, and BKNG is trading well off its 52-week high. While Bollinger Bandwidth is elevated, the broader range position in the lower third indicates persistent structural pressure rather than a confirmed secular reversal.

Key Indicators

Price vs 200-day MA-7.28% below

52-Week High$231.80

52-Week Low$150.14

Distance from 52w High-24.7%

BB Bandwidth16.6%

MA CrossoverNone detected

Support

$163.45$162.07$156.75

Resistance

$185.13$190.45$191.83

The monthly structure frames BKNG between structural support at $163.45, $162.07, and $156.75 and resistance at $185.13, $190.45, and $191.83. Over 6+ months, a retest of the monthly pivot near $174.29 is plausible, while the 52-week high at $231.8 remains distant and the lower support band is more relevant if the broader trend weakens further.

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Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.