CSX$48.54
CSX Corporation
Moat Score
75/100
CSX Corporation owns one of the most valuable freight rail franchises in North America, with a dense eastern U.S. network, access to major ports, and irreplaceable rights-of-way that would be prohibitively expensive to replicate. The company benefits from high barriers to entry, strong corridor economics, and customer dependence on rail for long-haul bulk and intermodal freight. Its best defenses are structural rather than cyclical: the network itself, the scarcity of viable competitors, and the scale needed to operate profitably. The main weakness is that some freight can shift to trucking if service slips or pricing becomes uncompetitive. Even so, CSX remains a classic rail moat story with durable assets and limited threat of wholesale substitution.
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Financial Score
60/100
CSX’s most notable strength is its durable cash generation, with operating cash flow remaining solid at $5.32B in TTM despite a softer FY2025 and a rising capital-spending burden. That resilience supports a business whose profitability is still strong for a railroad, even though momentum has weakened: revenue slipped from $14.85B in FY2022 to $14.09B in FY2025, net income fell to $2.89B, and gross and operating margins have both compressed. The balance sheet is more mixed, with shareholders’ equity improving to $14.09B, but current liabilities outpacing current assets and working capital at -$746M, while debt remains elevated at $19.45B. Overall returns are still respectable, yet liquidity, leverage, and free-cash-flow trends constrain the profile. With forecast growth improving and ratings clustered between 4.5/10 and 7/10, CSX appears fundamentally sound but clearly not without pressure.
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CSX presents a mixed technical profile with short-term weakness inside a longer-term constructive trend. Near term, price action is pressured by the move below the 20-day and 50-day averages, an oversold RSI, and a bearish MACD, which together argue for caution despite the potential for a reflex bounce. Medium term, the stock is still supported by its position above the 200-day MA and Golden Cross territory, but the sideways 52-week trend and lack of volume confirmation temper the outlook. Longer term, the structure remains favorable as long as the 200-day trend holds. The key levels to watch are $48.44 and $47.96 on the downside, with $49.49 to $50.69 as the first meaningful resistance band.
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Frequently asked questions about CSX Corporation
- Does CSX Corporation (CSX) have an economic moat?
- MoatScan AI rates CSX Corporation (CSX) 75/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. CSX Corporation owns one of the most valuable freight rail franchises in North America, with a dense eastern U.S.Sign in free to see the Moat Type verdict and the pillar-by-pillar reasoning.
- What is CSX Corporation's moat score?
- CSX Corporation (CSX) has a moat score of 75/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.Sign in free to see each pillar rating, the Moat Type verdict and the moat trend.
- How does CSX's share price compare with its estimated fair value?
- MoatScan AI estimates CSX's intrinsic value with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and shows how that estimate compares with the market price at the time of analysis. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis and is a research estimate, not a recommendation.Sign in free to see the fair value estimate and how it compares with the price.
- What is CSX Corporation's fair value estimate?
- MoatScan AI derives CSX Corporation's (CSX) fair value per share from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.Sign in free to see the estimate and the full assumptions behind it.
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Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. MoatScan AI is an educational research tool. It is not licensed or registered with the Securities Commission Malaysia or any other financial regulator, and it holds no positions in, and receives no compensation from, any company analysed.