KDP$28.69

Keurig Dr Pepper shows steady top-line expansion, with revenue rising from $12.7B in FY2021 to $16.6B in FY2025 and TTM running ahead at $16.9B, suggesting growth has re-accelerated. Net income has been more uneven, with sharp swings in FY2022 and FY2024, but TTM earnings improved versus FY2024 while remaining below FY2025. Gross margin has stayed broadly stable in the mid-50s, while operating margin has been choppier, hurt by a large FY2024 other operating expense spike. That looks more like an unusual item than a structural collapse. Compared with typical consumer staples peers, profitability is acceptable but not best-in-class. Key flags are rising interest expense, FCF margin drift, and earnings sensitivity to non-operating items.

Keurig Dr Pepper’s balance sheet shows a large, asset-heavy structure with stable reported equity but mixed liquidity. FY2025 cash rose to 1,026 million and total current assets increased to 5,266 million, yet current liabilities remained higher at 8,290 million, leaving negative working capital. Total debt also climbed to 16,141 million, pushing net debt to 15,115 million, while total liabilities reached 29,943 million against 55,459 million of assets. Shareholders’ equity has been broadly steady over time at 25,516 million, and retained earnings improved to 5,622 million, but tangible book value remains deeply negative because goodwill and intangibles dominate the asset base. The TTM figures show a major reclassification in other current assets, which is a notable structural change and warrants caution.

KDP shows generally positive but uneven cash generation. Operating cash flow was solid in FY2021-FY2022 at about $2.8 billion, fell sharply to $1.3 billion in FY2023, then recovered to $2.2 billion in FY2024 and $2.0 billion in FY2025; TTM CFO of $2.1 billion is slightly above the latest year. Free cash flow stayed positive and reasonably strong, but eased from $1.7 billion in FY2024 to $1.5 billion TTM after capex of roughly $0.5 billion. Working capital swings are material, especially inventories, payables, and other operating items. Dividends have steadily increased to $1.25 billion, while buybacks and debt activity have been active but mixed, suggesting moderate capital allocation discipline rather than exceptional consistency.

Keurig Dr Pepper shows a mixed profile. Liquidity has been weak for most of the period, with current and quick ratios staying below 1.0 until the latest reading, while the quick ratio remains low, so short-term cushion is limited despite the recent jump in current ratio. Leverage has increased meaningfully, with debt-to-equity and net debt-to-EBITDA trending higher, indicating a heavier balance sheet burden. Efficiency is steady but not strong: asset turnover is low and inventory turnover has gradually declined, suggesting less productive use of working capital. Profitability is adequate, with ROA and ROIC generally stable in the mid-single digits and ROE improving from earlier levels, but returns are not especially strong overall.

Historical data runs through FY2025, while FY2026 and FY2027 are analyst-covered forecast years. Revenue grew steadily but unevenly from FY2021 to FY2025, with a brief deceleration in FY2023-FY2024 before rebounding in FY2025. The forward outlook is much stronger, showing a sharp step-up in FY2026 and continued growth in FY2027. EPS has been more volatile than revenue, swinging between gains and declines, which suggests margin pressure and recovery phases rather than a smooth earnings path. Forward P/E data appears only for FY2026-FY2027 and falls as growth moderates, which is broadly consistent. Analyst sentiment is positive: a Buy consensus, 17 analysts, and a wide but constructive target range. The recommendation mix has been broadly stable, with only modest month-to-month shifts.