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MA$574.86

Mastercard Incorporated

Last Updated
Aug 18, 202610 days ago
Moat & Trend
Management
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Competitive Radar

Moat Score

82/100

Executive Summary

Mastercard has one of the strongest structural positions in global payments. Its advantage comes from a powerful two-sided network: consumers want cards that are broadly accepted, and merchants want to accept the cards consumers already carry. That flywheel is reinforced by decades of bank relationships, global acceptance, and a duopolistic market structure alongside Visa. Mastercard also benefits from brand trust, deep integration into issuer and acquirer systems, and scale-driven operating leverage. The main weaknesses are regulatory scrutiny, interchange and scheme-fee pressure, and the fact that switching is easier for some transaction types than in software businesses. Even so, the core rail remains highly embedded and difficult to displace, supporting a Wide Moat classification with a stable trend.

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Last Updated
Aug 18, 202610 days ago
Target Price
Analyst Consensus
FAIR VALUE
Financial Strength

Financial Score

81/100

Executive Summary

Mastercard’s standout strength is its elite profitability paired with exceptional cash generation. Revenue climbed from $22.2 billion in FY2022 to $32.8 billion in FY2025, while net income rose to $15.0 billion, reflecting durable operating leverage and consistently high margins, even as growth has normalized from the prior year’s faster pace. Cash flow remains excellent, with operating cash flow around $17.4 billion TTM and free cash flow near $15.9 billion, comfortably funding buybacks and dividends. The balance sheet is liquid, but not without tension: current assets exceed current liabilities, yet leverage has increased and equity is relatively thin, with negative tangible book value. Key ratios remain strong, especially ROE and margins, and growth/forecast indicators still point to steady compounding. Overall, Mastercard presents a high-quality financial profile, with outstanding earnings and cash flow offset by a more leveraged balance sheet.

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Last Updated
Aug 18, 2026
Short Term
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Medium Term
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Price Outlook
$574.90Price at Analysis

The path of least resistance remains modestly higher, with the next likely test centered on $579.95 and then $582.81 if buyers can absorb the recent MACD weakness. The key downside risk is a loss of $566.77, which would put $563.48 and the weekly pivot zone back in play as the first meaningful support area.

Technical Overview

MA’s technical picture is broadly constructive, but the time horizons are not perfectly aligned. Short term, the stock looks somewhat extended after a strong advance, with price holding above the 20-day average but momentum indicators showing only a neutral-to-soft setup as MACD turns bearish and volume contracts. Medium and long term remain more favorable: price is above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, in Golden Cross territory, and sitting in the upper third of its 52-week range near the highs. The key levels to monitor are $566.77 and $574.62 on the downside, with $579.95 and $582.81 on the upside; those bands will determine whether the current advance consolidates or extends.

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Frequently asked questions about Mastercard Incorporated

Does Mastercard Incorporated (MA) have an economic moat?
MoatScan AI rates Mastercard Incorporated (MA) 82/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. Mastercard has one of the strongest structural positions in global payments.Sign in free to see the Moat Type verdict and the pillar-by-pillar reasoning.
What is Mastercard Incorporated's moat score?
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) has a moat score of 82/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.Sign in free to see each pillar rating, the Moat Type verdict and the moat trend.
Is MA stock overvalued or undervalued?
MoatScan AI answers this by estimating MA's intrinsic value with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, then comparing that estimate to the current market price. A share price meaningfully below the estimate is flagged undervalued; meaningfully above it, overvalued. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis.Sign in free to see the fair value estimate, the implied upside or downside, and the verdict.
What is Mastercard Incorporated's fair value estimate?
MoatScan AI derives Mastercard Incorporated's (MA) fair value per share from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.Sign in free to see the estimate and the full assumptions behind it.
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Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.