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MCD$230.88

McDonald's Corporation

Last Updated
Aug 8, 20262 months ago
Moat & Trend
Management
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Competitive Radar

Moat Score

61/100

Executive Summary

McDonald's has one of the strongest consumer franchises in the world, but its moat is better described as narrow than wide because the business depends more on brand, convenience, and scale than on hard customer lock-in. The Golden Arches, global menu familiarity, prime site control, and franchise-led economics create durable advantages that are difficult for peers to match at the same breadth. Yet switching costs are low, network effects are weak, and the restaurant category remains intensely competitive and price sensitive. Recent investments in digital ordering, loyalty, and automation should support efficiency and deepen habit, but they do not fundamentally change the moat profile. Overall, McDonald's remains structurally resilient with a stable competitive position, but not a business with monopolistic or deeply entrenched power.

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Last Updated
Oct 8, 20264 days ago
Target Price
Analyst Consensus
FAIR VALUE
Financial Strength

Financial Score

67/100

Executive Summary

McDonald’s most notable strength is its durable, high-quality earnings engine: revenue has climbed from $25.49B in FY2023 to $26.89B in FY2025, while operating margins have remained exceptional near 45%-46% and free cash flow reached $7.19B in FY2025 and $7.76B TTM. Cash generation is comfortably supporting dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment, and returns remain strong with ROA around 13% and ROIC near 18%–20%. The main tension is the balance sheet, where current assets of $4.35B versus current liabilities of $4.02B, cash of just $822M, and liabilities of $60.94B against assets of $59.92B leave negative equity and elevated leverage. Even so, growth remains steady and forecasts point to continued mid-single-digit expansion, making MCD a fundamentally resilient franchise with strong profitability and cash flow, offset by a comparatively stretched capital structure.

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Last Updated
Oct 8, 2026
Short Term
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Medium Term
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Technical Overview
$230.88Price at Analysis

MCD’s technical picture is decisively negative across all three horizons. Short-term indicators show oversold momentum, but price remains below the 20-day average with MACD negative and volume not showing expansion; medium-term structure is also weak, with price below the 50-day and 200-day averages and still in Death Cross territory. Long-term conditions remain pressured as the stock sits near the 52-week low and in the lower third of its annual range. Near-term support is tightly clustered around $230.53 and $229.99, while resistance begins at $233.04 and $236.00, with monthly resistance farther up at $253.33.

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Frequently asked questions about McDonald's Corporation

Does McDonald's Corporation (MCD) have an economic moat?
MoatScan AI rates McDonald's Corporation (MCD) 61/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. McDonald's has one of the strongest consumer franchises in the world, but its moat is better described as narrow than wide because the business depends more on brand, convenience, and scale than on hard customer lock-in.Sign in free to see the Moat Type verdict and the pillar-by-pillar reasoning.
What is McDonald's Corporation's moat score?
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) has a moat score of 61/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.Sign in free to see each pillar rating, the Moat Type verdict and the moat trend.
How does MCD's share price compare with its estimated fair value?
MoatScan AI estimates MCD's intrinsic value with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and shows how that estimate compares with the market price at the time of analysis. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis and is a research estimate, not a recommendation.Sign in free to see the fair value estimate and how it compares with the price.
What is McDonald's Corporation's fair value estimate?
MoatScan AI derives McDonald's Corporation's (MCD) fair value per share from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.Sign in free to see the estimate and the full assumptions behind it.

Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. MoatScan AI is an educational research tool. It is not licensed or registered with the Securities Commission Malaysia or any other financial regulator, and it holds no positions in, and receives no compensation from, any company analysed.