Does PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) have an economic moat?

MoatScan AI rates PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) 52/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. PayPal still has a real competitive advantage, but it is narrower than it once was.

What is PayPal Holdings Inc's moat score?

PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) has a moat score of 52/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.

Is PYPL stock overvalued or undervalued?

MoatScan AI answers this by estimating PYPL's intrinsic value with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, then comparing that estimate to the current market price. A share price meaningfully below the estimate is flagged undervalued; meaningfully above it, overvalued. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis.

What is PayPal Holdings Inc's fair value estimate?

MoatScan AI derives PayPal Holdings Inc's (PYPL) fair value per share from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.

Back to Database

PYPL$59.78

PayPal Holdings Inc

Last Updated

Jul 15, 2026about 1 month ago

Moat & Trend

Management

AI Impact

Competitive Radar

Moat Score

52/100

Executive Summary

PayPal still has a real competitive advantage, but it is narrower than it once was. The company benefits from a globally recognized brand, a large two-sided user base, and meaningful trust in online checkout, especially for consumers who value speed and buyer protection. It also enjoys some switching costs through saved credentials, account history, and merchant integrations. However, those advantages are increasingly offset by weak network exclusivity, intense price competition, and the ease with which merchants and consumers can multi-home across Apple Pay, Stripe, Block, Adyen, and card-network wallets. PayPal is not a low-cost operator and does not enjoy efficient scale in a natural-monopoly sense. The moat is therefore durable but shrinking, with branded checkout and Venmo as the main defenses rather than structural industry dominance.

Network Effects

Large but porous network

Pillar Strength

6.5/10

PayPal benefits from a genuine two-sided network: more consumers make the button more valuable to merchants, and more merchant acceptance makes the wallet more useful to consumers. Venmo adds a separate social and peer-to-peer layer that reinforces engagement and increases the chance users stay inside PayPal’s ecosystem for transfers, checkout, and balances. Still, these effects are materially weakened by multi-homing. Merchants routinely accept several wallets and payment processors, while consumers can keep PayPal alongside Apple Pay, cards, and bank transfers with little friction. That means the network is broad, but not exclusive. The value of the network rises with scale, yet competitors can participate without being locked out, limiting compounding advantage.

Switching Costs

Moderate checkout inertia

Pillar Strength

6/10

Switching costs are real but not especially deep. Consumers accumulate saved credentials, transaction history, balances, and familiar dispute workflows, which creates behavioral inertia and some practical friction. Merchants also face modest switching costs when PayPal is embedded in checkout flows, recurring billing, or account-management systems, especially for small businesses that rely on PayPal’s brand recognition and relatively simple setup. However, the cost of adding or replacing payment options is usually manageable, and many merchants already route volume through multiple providers. Consumers can also pay with alternative wallets in seconds. So while PayPal enjoys convenience lock-in and some workflow stickiness, the switching barrier is moderate rather than structural, and it does not prevent customers from gradually migrating usage elsewhere.

Intangible Assets

Trusted consumer brand

Pillar Strength

7/10

PayPal’s strongest moat element is intangible assets, especially brand trust. The name remains synonymous with online payments for many consumers, and that recognition matters in a category where users care about fraud protection, dispute handling, and the perceived safety of sharing payment details. The company also benefits from licenses and regulatory permissions in multiple jurisdictions, which are not trivial to assemble. Its long operating history and merchant-facing reputation create a layer of credibility that newer entrants must spend heavily to match. That said, the brand is not unassailable: negative publicity around holds, account freezes, policy changes, and acquisition controversies has chipped at goodwill. The asset remains valuable and durable, but it is more a trust-based reputation advantage than a legally protected monopoly position.

Cost Advantages

No durable cost edge

Pillar Strength

3/10

PayPal does not appear to enjoy a durable cost advantage. Payments is a scale-driven technology business, but the economics are not unique enough to create a large structural gap versus well-funded rivals such as Stripe, Adyen, Block, or major card-network wallets. PayPal has meaningful fixed-cost leverage from its platform and global infrastructure, yet those benefits are partially offset by heavy investments in product, risk management, compliance, and customer acquisition. The company also faces intense pricing pressure because merchants can compare economics across several processors. In addition, consumer-facing wallet features are often bundled into broader ecosystems, reducing PayPal’s ability to win purely on cost. Any cost edge is incremental and execution-based, not the result of a deeply protected structural advantage.

Efficient Scale

Competitive crowded market

Pillar Strength

3.5/10

Efficient scale is limited. PayPal operates in a very large, highly competitive market with many viable alternatives and no natural-monopoly characteristics. Digital payments can exhibit scale benefits, but the market is far from a regulated utility or entrenched duopoly. Consumers can switch wallets easily, merchants can route transactions through multiple processors, and large technology or fintech platforms can enter with substantial capital and distribution. PayPal does have significant scale, but that scale is not exclusive enough to keep rivals out or to create a stable oligopoly. In branded checkout, the firm still matters, yet its share is under pressure as payment options become more interoperable and commoditized. The market structure therefore supports only limited efficient-scale protection, not a strong structural barrier to entry.

Management Quality Assessment

Evaluating leadership track record, capital allocation, and governance

Verdict

Concerning

PayPal is run by hired management, not founders; Enrique Lores only became CEO in March 2026 after nearly five years on the board, so there is no long operating track record at the helm yet. His predecessor Alex Chriss lasted about two and a half years, and the board said execution pace had fallen short, which points to operational underperformance rather than disciplined compounding. Capital allocation has been mixed: ROIC has stayed healthy around the high teens, and buybacks plus a modest dividend have returned cash, but acquisitions have been numerous and only some clearly strengthened the franchise. Insider ownership is minimal, and the new pay package looks rich versus weak share-price performance. Governance appears broadly sound, with a majority-independent board and chaired committees.

Key Highlights

Enrique Lores became CEO in March 2026 after serving on PayPal’s board for nearly five years, so management quality at the top is not yet proven in operating execution.
The prior CEO, Alex Chriss, was replaced after roughly two and a half years; the board publicly cited execution pace as being below expectations, signaling underwhelming delivery.
ROIC has remained healthy, around the high teens, which suggests management has not yet destroyed the capital base despite intense competitive pressure.
Insider ownership is very low: the CEO holds about 0.004% of shares, or roughly $1.45 million, limiting direct economic alignment with shareholders.
The board is majority independent and committee chairs are independent, but the CEO’s compensation package is large relative to recent shareholder performance and looks generously structured.

AI Impact Assessment

Evaluating how AI strengthens or disrupts existing moat pillars

AI Opportunity

6/ 10

AI Threat

7/ 10

Net AI Impact

-1Neutral

Net Pressure. AI strengthens PayPal’s network-effects moat by improving fraud detection, checkout conversion, and personalization using proprietary transaction data across 439 million active accounts and millions of merchants. It also supports cost takeout, with management targeting about $1.5 billion of gross run-rate savings from simplification and faster AI adoption, which can be reinvested into checkout, Venmo, and merchant tools. But AI also weakens the moat by moving commerce discovery and order orchestration into agentic interfaces, where standalone payments risk becoming a back-end utility. The key uncertainty is whether PayPal can make its data, trust, and merchant integrations the default layer in AI-driven commerce before rivals or platforms own the customer interface.

AI Opportunity Highlights

PayPal’s two-sided network and transaction graph give its fraud and risk models proprietary training data that rivals cannot replicate quickly.
AI-powered personalization such as Smart Receipts can increase conversion and monetization across PayPal and Venmo using first-party purchase data.
Management has guided to about $1.5 billion of gross run-rate savings from AI-driven simplification over the next two to three years, freeing capital for higher-value products.
Partnerships like Shopware Payments and Hey Savi embed native PayPal checkout into emerging commerce surfaces, extending the network into agentic workflows.

AI Threat Highlights

Agentic commerce can shift shopping upstream into AI assistants, reducing the importance of branded checkout and weakening PayPal’s consumer-facing control point.
Payments are increasingly exposed to commoditization as Stripe, commerce platforms, and AI-native checkout layers make payment rails easier to swap.
Using SKU-level and cross-merchant purchase data for targeted offers and ads creates privacy and trust risk that could limit monetization.
If merchants adopt platform-native wallets or embedded payments inside AI commerce stacks, PayPal’s checkout frequency and take rate could come under pressure.

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Last Updated

Aug 7, 202621 days ago

Target Price

Analyst Consensus

FAIR VALUE

Financial Strength

Financial Score

68/100

Executive Summary

PayPal’s standout strength is its profitable, cash-generative platform model: margins have improved, ROE and ROA are strong, and free cash flow remains healthy despite uneven earnings momentum. Revenue has continued to rise, but growth is clearly moderating, with recent TTM expansion slowing further and net income showing some normalization after prior margin recovery. The balance sheet remains solid and liquid, with ample cash and short-term investments, current assets comfortably exceeding current liabilities, and leverage still manageable, though the recent uptick in debt and slight drift lower in equity merit attention. Cash conversion is good but not especially smooth, as working-capital drag has periodically weighed on CFO. Overall, PayPal presents a stable, high-quality financial profile with strong profitability and liquidity, offset by decelerating growth and only moderate leverage risk, consistent with its mid-to-high single-digit ratings.

Income Statement

Revenue · Margins · Profitability

Section Score

6.5/10

PayPal shows moderating but still positive growth, with revenue rising from $27.5B in FY2022 to $33.2B in FY2025, while TTM growth slowed further to 2.9% versus 4.3% in FY2025. Net income improved materially over the period, but the path was uneven: FY2023 surged on margin recovery, FY2024 dipped, and FY2025 rebounded; TTM net income is down 6.3%, suggesting some normalization. Gross margin has stayed fairly stable around the low-to-mid 40s, while operating margin improved from 14.7% to 19.3% before easing slightly TTM. Earnings quality is helped by lower tax rates, but other income/expense has been volatile. Assuming this is a digital payments platform, performance is respectable but growth is decelerating and not yet reaccelerating.

Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified

Metric	TTM	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023	FY 2022
Period Ending	Jun 30, 2026	Dec 31, 2025	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2022
Revenue	34,128	33,172	31,797	29,771	27,518
Revenue Growth	2.88%	4.32%	6.81%	8.19%	—
Net Income	4,902	5,233	4,147	4,246	2,419
Net Income Growth	-6.33%	26.19%	-2.33%	75.53%	—

Data as of Jun 30, 2026

Balance Sheet

Assets · Liabilities · Equity

Section Score

7/10

PayPal’s balance sheet shows solid near-term liquidity, with cash and short-term investments of $10.4 billion in FY2025 and $11.3 billion TTM, while total current assets of $59.8 billion continue to exceed current liabilities of $46.4 billion, leaving working capital at $13.3 billion. Total assets have remained broadly stable around $79–83 billion, and total liabilities of $59.9 billion are manageable relative to that asset base. Equity is also steady near $20 billion, though it has edged down from $21.1 billion in FY2023 to $19.8 billion TTM. Debt is moderate, but the TTM increase to $13.4 billion bears watching. Overall, the balance sheet remains stable and liquid, with no obvious solvency stress, though equity growth has been limited.

Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified

Metric	TTM	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023	FY 2022
Period Ending	Jun 30, 2026	Dec 31, 2025	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2022
Total Current Assets	62,346	59,759	58,206	62,569	57,424
Total Assets	82,737	80,173	78,725	82,166	78,624
Total Current Liabilities	48,406	46,443	45,490	48,466	45,008
Total Liabilities	62,917	59,917	58,308	61,115	58,350

Data as of Jun 30, 2026

Cash Flow Statement

Operations · Investing · Financing

Section Score

7/10

Cash generation is healthy overall, with operating cash flow rising from $5.8B in FY2022 to $6.4B in FY2025, and TTM improving to $7.5B versus the latest FY. The path is not perfectly smooth, since CFO dipped in FY2023 and FY2025 after a strong FY2024, and working-capital changes were consistently negative, which weighed on cash conversion. Even so, free cash flow remained solid at $5.6B in FY2025 and $6.6B TTM after capex of $852M and $889M, suggesting reinvestment is manageable. Capital allocation is shareholder-friendly, with continued buybacks near $6.1B and debt activity active, though leverage management deserves attention. Overall, cash quality is good, but not highly stable.

Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified

Metric	TTM	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023	FY 2022
Period Ending	Jun 30, 2026	Dec 31, 2025	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2022
Operating Cash Flow	7,475	6,416	7,450	4,843	5,813
Operating Cash Flow Growth	16.51%	-13.88%	53.83%	-16.69%	—
Free Cash Flow	6,586	5,564	6,767	4,220	5,107
Free Cash Flow Growth	18.37%	-17.78%	60.36%	-17.37%	—

Data as of Jun 30, 2026

Key Ratios

Liquidity · Leverage · Efficiency · Returns

Section Score

7.5/10

Liquidity ratios are unusually high, but for a payments platform they are not very informative on their own; cash remains ample, with the cash ratio still strong despite easing from prior years. Leverage looks controlled, with debt-to-equity broadly around 0.5 historically and only a modest TTM uptick, which is manageable given the earnings base. Efficiency has improved gradually, as asset turnover has edged up from 0.35 to 0.41. Profitability is the strongest area: operating, pre-tax, and net margins have all strengthened, while ROE has risen to 25.8% and ROA to 5.9% TTM. The equity base also appears stable, supporting a solid overall profile.

Ratios are dimensionless unless otherwise noted

Metric	Current	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023	FY 2022
Period Ending	—	Dec 31, 2025	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2022
Current Ratio	128.672	128.672	127.953	129.099	127.586
Quick Ratio	128.672	128.672	127.953	129.099	127.586
Profit Margin	15.78%	15.78%	13.04%	14.26%	8.79%
After Tax ROE	25.834	25.834	20.312	20.17	11.932
Return on Assets	5.92%	6.53%	5.27%	5.17%	3.08%
Debt to Equity	0.68	0.49	0.48	0.46	0.51
P/E Ratio	10.95	11.72	20.42	18.33	36.15
Forward P/E	10.32	10.05	17.36	10.88	14.86

Data as of Dec 31, 2025

Growth

Revenue · EPS · Valuation · Estimates

Section Score

6/10

PayPal’s top line rose from 27.52B USD to 31.80B USD, then is projected to continue growing at a steady mid-single-digit pace to 34.69B USD and 36.17B USD. The pattern shows clear deceleration from the earlier 8.2% pace toward about 4–5%, suggesting a more mature growth profile rather than a renewed acceleration. EPS has been more powerful than revenue over time, moving from 2.09 to 3.84 to 3.99 and then 5.41, with forecast EPS growth moderating before re-accelerating, which points to some margin expansion and operating leverage. Analyst sentiment is cautious: consensus is Hold, the 33-analyst base lends moderate confidence, and the recommendation mix is broadly stable with a slight reduction in Sell ratings.

Analyst Price Targets

Low$36-39.78%

Median$57-4.65%

Average$58.83-1.59%

High$147.39+146.55%

HoldConsensus rating based on analyst coverage

33 analysts

Recommendation Trends

Rating	Aug '26	Jul '26	Jun '26	May '26
Strong Buy	3	3	3	3
Buy	5	5	5	5
Hold	32	32	31	32
Sell	3	3	4	4
Strong Sell	0	0	0	0
Total	43	43	43	44

Forecast · Analyst Estimates

Revenue This Year34.69B

+4.57%from 33.17B

FY 2026

Revenue Next Year36.17B

+4.27%from 34.69B

FY 2027

EPS This Year· non-GAAP adj.5.38

+1.35%

FY 2026

EPS Next Year· non-GAAP adj.5.79

+7.61%

FY 2027

Historical · Reported Actuals

Metric	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023	FY 2022
Revenue	33.17B	31.80B	29.77B	27.52B
Revenue Growth	+4.32%	+6.81%	+8.19%	—
EPS (GAAP diluted)	5.41	3.99	3.84	2.09
EPS Growth	+35.59%	+3.91%	+83.73%	—

Revenue in USD · EPS per share · Price targets in USD

Data as of Dec 31, 2025 · Forecast EPS is analyst non-GAAP adjusted; historical EPS is GAAP diluted — not directly comparable.

Fair Value Estimation

DCF · +46.5% Margin of Safety · Undervalued

AI Fair Value Estimate (DCF)

$87.59vs$59.78

Margin of Safety+46.5%

Undervalued — Margin of safety detected

A discounted cash flow framework fits PayPal well because the business is cash-generative and its operating profile can be projected with reasonable confidence through revenue growth, margin expansion, and disciplined capital spending. The cash-flow path suggests a steady improvement in conversion, with EBITDA margins holding at a healthy level while capex remains modest, implying growth is being funded efficiently and fades gradually rather than abruptly.

AI Valuation Verdict

A DCF is the right lens for PayPal because its valuation is driven by durable cash generation, manageable capital intensity, and a visible operating ramp over the next five years. Using an 8.7% discount rate and 0.5% terminal growth, the model embeds 5.73% revenue CAGR, 20.49% average EBITDA margins, and capex at 2.59% of revenue. That framework yields a fair value of 87.59 USD per share versus a current price of 59.78 USD, implying a 46.52% margin of safety and an undervalued verdict. The result is most sensitive to WACC, terminal growth, and whether margin durability holds. Stronger monetization supports the bull case; slower growth or margin compression weakens it.

DCF Assumptions

WACC

8.7%

Weighted avg cost of capital

Revenue Growth (5Y)

5.7%

CAGR assumption

EBITDA Margin

20.5%

Steady-state projection

CapEx / Revenue

2.6%

Capital investment

Terminal Growth

0.5%

Long-run growth rate

Projection Period

5 yrs

Explicit forecast horizon

Projected Cash Flows

Values in millions USD

Year	Revenue	EBITDA	FCF	Discounted FCF
Yr 1	35,151	7,170	5,682	5,227
Yr 2	36,392	7,444	5,473	4,632
Yr 3	39,477	8,087	6,409	4,990
Yr 4	42,282	8,681	6,880	4,928
Yr 5	43,928	9,039	7,163	4,720
Terminal Value (PV)				57,853

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Last Updated

Aug 8, 2026

Short Term

Medium Term

Long Term

Price Outlook

$59.07Price at Analysis

The path of least resistance in the near term is modestly higher as long as PYPL holds the $58.84–$59.29 area, with $60.47 and then $61.38 as the next resistance tests. The main downside risk is a break back below $58.11, which would open a move toward the weekly support band around $55.86 and $55.30.

Technical Overview

PYPL’s technical profile is mixed but not broken. Short-term momentum is still constructive because the stock is above its 20-day moving average and RSI remains in a favorable range, yet a bearish MACD crossover and lighter volume warn that the recent advance may be losing energy. Medium and long-term signals are more cautious: price is comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day averages, but Death Cross territory keeps the broader trend from earning a stronger bullish rating. The most relevant levels to watch are $59.29 and $58.84 on the downside/nearby pivot structure, with $60.47 and $61.38 as the first meaningful resistance zones. Above that, $63.25 becomes the key long-term hurdle.

Short Term

1 to 4 weeks

Bullish

PYPL remains above its 20-day moving average and is trading in the upper half of its Bollinger Band, which keeps the near-term bias constructive despite today’s sharp pullback. RSI at 61.3 is still in a bullish zone, but the bearish MACD crossover and contracting volume suggest momentum is slowing and any upside may be more measured.

Key Indicators

Price vs 20-day MA+5.02% above

Price vs 50-day MA+21.81% above

RSI (14-day)61.3

RSI InterpretationApproaching overbought

MACD TrendBearish (below signal)

Bollinger PositionUpper half

Volume TrendContracting

Support

$58.84$58.11$57.41

Resistance

$59.74$60.47$60.95

The closest short-term level is the daily pivot at $59.29, with immediate support clustered at $58.84 and resistance at $59.74. In the 1–4 week window, a test of $58.84 or $59.74 looks highly likely, with $60.47 the next upside checkpoint if buyers regain momentum.

Medium Term

1 to 6 months

Neutral

The medium-term setup is balanced: price is well above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and the broader trend is still labeled uptrend, but the stock is also in Death Cross territory, which tempers trend confidence. With the range position sitting in the middle third, the chart lacks a clean directional edge and needs stronger confirmation to extend the advance.

Key Indicators

Price vs 50-day MA+21.81% above

Price vs 200-day MA+13.82% above

52-Week Range PositionMiddle third (51%)

Trend DirectionUptrend

MA Cross SignalDeath Cross territory

Relative Volume0.41x avg

Support

$58.91$55.86$55.30

Resistance

$59.29$59.85$61.38

Weekly pivot confluence centers around $59.29 and nearby support at $58.91, while the first notable resistance sits at $59.85 and then $61.38. These levels sit close to the 50-day/200-day moving-average structure, so they are likely to act as important decision points over the next 1–6 months.

Long Term

6 months and beyond

Neutral

Longer term, PYPL’s price remains above the 200-day moving average, which prevents a fully bearish reading, but the Death Cross territory and only mid-range 52-week positioning argue against a strong structural bullish call. Elevated Bollinger Bandwidth also signals an active, less stable backdrop, so the long-term picture is still repairing rather than decisively trending.

Key Indicators

Price vs 200-day MA+13.82% above

52-Week High$79.22

52-Week Low$38.46

Distance from 52w High-25.4%

BB Bandwidth22.4%

MA CrossoverNone detected

Support

$47.36$43.58$37.50

Resistance

$59.49$63.25$69.32

The monthly pivot at $53.41 is the key structural midline, with deeper support at $47.36 and major resistance at $63.25 before the 52-week high zone near $79.22. Over 6+ months, a retest of $63.25 is more plausible than a move to the prior high, while $53.41 remains the critical floor to monitor for trend health.

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Frequently asked questions about PayPal Holdings Inc

Does PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) have an economic moat?: MoatScan AI rates PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) 52/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. PayPal still has a real competitive advantage, but it is narrower than it once was.Sign in free to see the Moat Type verdict and the pillar-by-pillar reasoning.
What is PayPal Holdings Inc's moat score?: PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) has a moat score of 52/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.Sign in free to see each pillar rating, the Moat Type verdict and the moat trend.
Is PYPL stock overvalued or undervalued?: MoatScan AI answers this by estimating PYPL's intrinsic value with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, then comparing that estimate to the current market price. A share price meaningfully below the estimate is flagged undervalued; meaningfully above it, overvalued. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis.Sign in free to see the fair value estimate, the implied upside or downside, and the verdict.
What is PayPal Holdings Inc's fair value estimate?: MoatScan AI derives PayPal Holdings Inc's (PYPL) fair value per share from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.Sign in free to see the estimate and the full assumptions behind it.

Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

PYPL$59.78

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Frequently asked questions about PayPal Holdings Inc

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