Does Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) have an economic moat?

MoatScan AI rates Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) 18/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. Rigetti has interesting technology and a credible position in superconducting quantum computing, but it does not yet possess a durable economic moat.

What is Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s moat score?

Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) has a moat score of 18/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.

Is RGTI stock overvalued or undervalued?

MoatScan AI answers this by estimating RGTI's intrinsic value with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, then comparing that estimate to the current market price. A share price meaningfully below the estimate is flagged undervalued; meaningfully above it, overvalued. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis.

What is Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s fair value estimate?

MoatScan AI derives Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s (RGTI) fair value per share from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.

Back to Database

RGTI$16.86

Rigetti Computing, Inc.

Last Updated

May 27, 20263 months ago

Moat & Trend

Management

AI Impact

Competitive Radar

Moat Score

18/100

Executive Summary

Rigetti has interesting technology and a credible position in superconducting quantum computing, but it does not yet possess a durable economic moat. Its platform, chips, and cloud access help it participate in a highly specialized ecosystem, yet customers can multi-home across other quantum providers and large incumbents. The company’s differentiation rests more on technical execution than on entrenched customer lock-in, brand power, or scale economics. That leaves the business exposed to faster-funded rivals, especially as commercialization remains uncertain and capital needs stay high. Recent technical and funding progress may support survival and R&D, but it does not meaningfully change the view that Rigetti’s competitive advantage is still fragile.

Network Effects

Thin Ecosystem Pull

Pillar Strength

1.5/10

Rigetti’s Forest platform and Quil language create a small developer environment, but the network effect is weak. In quantum computing, the user base is still tiny, use cases are experimental, and customer value does not rise meaningfully as more users join the platform. Developers, researchers, and enterprise partners can experiment across multiple providers with limited friction, and there is little evidence that a larger Rigetti community materially improves chip performance, software quality, or customer lock-in. Unlike true platform businesses, the adoption loop is not self-reinforcing enough to create durable scale. The ecosystem may help awareness and early engagement, but it does not yet constitute a meaningful moat.

Switching Costs

Easy Multi-Homing

Pillar Strength

2/10

Switching costs are low because most customers are still experimenting rather than deeply embedded in a production quantum workflow. Users can compare Rigetti’s cloud access, simulators, and development tools with offerings from IBM, IonQ, Quantinuum, and others without abandoning prior work. The software stack is not yet mission-critical for most buyers, and integration burdens remain modest relative to the cost of adopting quantum hardware in the first place. Some familiarity with Quil and Rigetti’s tooling may create light behavioral inertia, but that is far from true lock-in. As quantum computing matures, workflow stickiness could improve, but today customers have enough alternatives that migration friction is limited.

Intangible Assets

Niche Technical IP

Pillar Strength

3/10

Rigetti benefits from specialized know-how in superconducting quantum integrated circuits, custom fabrication, and full-stack system design. That technical expertise, along with any associated patents and process knowledge, matters in a field where engineering talent and experimental iteration are scarce. The company’s brand also carries some recognition among quantum computing followers and researchers. Still, these intangible assets are not yet strong enough to generate clear pricing power or repel well-capitalized rivals. Large incumbents and other startups can pursue similar approaches, and the underlying science is not exclusive to Rigetti. The asset base is real, but it is narrower than a durable proprietary franchise and depends heavily on continued execution.

Cost Advantages

No Scale Edge

Pillar Strength

1.5/10

Rigetti does not appear to have a structural cost advantage. Quantum computing hardware is extremely capital intensive, with expensive cryogenics, fabrication, calibration, and highly specialized labor. As a smaller pure-play company, Rigetti likely faces higher unit costs than diversified technology leaders that can spread R&D and infrastructure over far larger revenue bases. Its fab and development capabilities may support rapid prototyping, but that is an engineering advantage, not a lower-cost operating model. Competitors with deeper balance sheets can also absorb losses while scaling their own systems. Because the market is still early and commercially immature, there is little evidence of a persistent cost gap that would protect margins over time.

Efficient Scale

Crowded Frontier Market

Pillar Strength

1/10

Efficient scale is minimal because the quantum computing market is not a natural monopoly and is already populated by several ambitious rivals. The industry does have high technical barriers, but those barriers have not translated into a stable oligopoly with limited room for entry. Instead, the field remains fragmented among startups and large incumbents, each pursuing different hardware architectures and business models. Customers can often evaluate multiple suppliers simultaneously, and no player has locked up the market in a way that makes entry uneconomic. Rigetti’s addressable niche may be specialized, but it is not exclusive. As a result, scale does not currently protect the company from competition or create meaningful structural scarcity.

Management Quality Assessment

Evaluating leadership track record, capital allocation, and governance

Verdict

Concerning

CEO Subodh Kulkarni has led Rigetti since December 2022, bringing credible semiconductor operating experience, but his Rigetti track record is still short and has not yet translated into durable economics. Capital allocation remains weak: ROIC is deeply negative, the company has no dividend policy, and growth has been funded largely through equity issuance rather than internally generated returns. Rigetti is no longer founder-led; it is now run by hired management, which may add discipline but also makes execution the key test. Insider ownership appears low and may be declining, with recent net insider selling and reports that the CEO holds no common stock. Compensation also looks rich relative to losses and shareholder returns, though board independence appears acceptable.

Key Highlights

Rigetti’s latest ROIC is roughly -48%, indicating that management has not yet generated returns above its cost of capital.
The company completed a $350 million at-the-market equity raise and has explicitly said it does not intend to pay dividends, signaling continued reliance on external financing.
CEO Subodh Kulkarni has been in place since December 2022; he brings semiconductor experience, but his tenure at Rigetti is still too short to show a durable operating turnaround.
Recent insider activity shows net selling of about $718,000 over the last 90 days, and the CEO is reported to hold no common stock, which weakens alignment.
The CEO’s pay package includes about a $2 million salary and 600,000 options, which appears elevated relative to the company’s persistent losses and negative ROIC.

AI Impact Assessment

Evaluating how AI strengthens or disrupts existing moat pillars

AI Opportunity

6/ 10

AI Threat

4/ 10

Net AI Impact

+2Moderate Tailwind

Net Neutral. AI is most relevant to Rigetti’s calibration, control, and workflow automation, where the company has already demonstrated AI-assisted tuning of a QPU and partnered with Quantum Machines and NVIDIA. That can improve yield, uptime, and time-to-solution, which matters in a hardware-constrained quantum stack. However, these gains look primarily defensive and engineering-led rather than a durable moat expansion: competitors can pursue similar AI-for-quantum control, and the customer-facing value proposition is still dominated by hardware performance, fabrication, and ecosystem execution. The main uncertainty is whether Rigetti’s accumulated device-calibration data and full-stack integration become proprietary enough to compound into a lasting advantage as systems scale.

Sign in to see the full analysis

The Strategic Factor Breakdown, Management Quality Assessment, and AI Impact Assessment are available to registered users — it's free.

Last Updated

Apr 24, 20265 months ago

Target Price

Analyst Consensus

FAIR VALUE

Financial Strength

Financial Score

37/100

Executive Summary

Rigetti Computing's most notable financial strength lies in its significantly improved liquidity and solvency, with a robust increase in cash and short-term investments bolstering its balance sheet and shareholders' equity. Despite this, the company faces severe operational challenges, marked by consistent revenue decline, deteriorating gross margins, and deeply negative operating and net income. Cash flow remains a major concern, with persistent negative operating and free cash flow, necessitating heavy reliance on stock issuance for funding. While key ratios show improved liquidity, profitability and efficiency metrics are consistently negative. However, analyst forecasts project a substantial revenue turnaround in FY2026 and FY2027, despite continued unprofitability, reflecting a "Strong Buy" consensus. Overall, Rigetti presents a high-risk profile, balancing strong liquidity with severe operational losses and a speculative growth outlook.

Income Statement

Revenue · Margins · Profitability

Section Score

1/10

Rigetti Computing, Inc. exhibits concerning financial trends. Revenue has consistently declined, with a significant drop of over 34% in FY2025, indicating a lack of growth momentum. Gross margins have also deteriorated sharply, falling from 78.07% in FY2022 to 29.12% in FY2025, suggesting a fundamental issue with profitability. Operating and net income have remained deeply negative and are worsening, with substantial operating expenses far outweighing revenue. The company has also seen large, volatile swings in other non-operating income/expense, masking the true operational losses. Assuming Rigetti is a technology company, these metrics are far below industry norms, which typically show revenue growth and a path to profitability. The persistent revenue decline, severe margin compression, and increasing net losses, coupled with significant share dilution, are major red flags.

Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified

Metric	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Period Ending	Dec 31, 2021	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2025
Revenue	—	13.1	12.01	10.79	7.09
Revenue Growth (YoY)	—	—	-8.35%	-10.14%	-34.31%
Net Income	-23.17	-71.52	-75.11	-200.99	-216.21
Profit Margin	—	-545.88%	-625.47%	-1,862.72%	-3,050.37%

Data as of Dec 31, 2025

Balance Sheet

Assets · Liabilities · Equity

Section Score

7.5/10

Rigetti Computing's balance sheet shows improving liquidity and solvency trends. Cash and short-term investments have grown significantly, from $11.73 million in FY21 to $443.51 million in FY25, bolstering current assets which reached $454.76 million in FY25. Total current liabilities remain low at $12.15 million in FY25, indicating strong short-term coverage. Total liabilities have decreased from $158.2 million in FY24 to $120.38 million in FY25, while total assets have expanded substantially to $666.57 million. Shareholders' equity has also seen a remarkable turnaround, moving from negative in FY21 to $546.2 million in FY25, reflecting a strengthening capital base. The company's net cash position has consistently improved, reaching $436.34 million in FY25, demonstrating a healthy financial structure.

Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified

Metric	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Period Ending	Dec 31, 2021	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2025
Total Current Assets	18.07	154.47	107.67	206.76	454.76
Total Assets	46.43	203.44	159.91	284.79	666.57
Total Current Liabilities	7.57	21.75	29.05	11.87	12.15
Total Liabilities	36.43	53.22	50.33	158.2	120.38

Data as of Dec 31, 2025

Cash Flow Statement

Operations · Investing · Financing

Section Score

2/10

Rigetti Computing exhibits a concerning cash flow profile. Operating cash flow has been consistently negative, ranging from -$0.96 million in FY2021 to -$58.54 million in FY2025, indicating the company is not generating cash from its core operations. Free cash flow is also persistently negative and deteriorating, reaching -$77.22 million in FY2025, highlighting a significant cash burn after capital expenditures. The company heavily relies on financing activities, particularly the issuance of common stock, which brought in $439.97 million in FY2025, to cover its operational and investment shortfalls. This reliance on external funding for basic operations and growth is unsustainable and signals a weak financial position. The substantial purchases of investments, reaching -$635.65 million in FY2025, further strain cash resources, despite some proceeds from sales.

Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified

Metric	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Period Ending	Dec 31, 2021	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2025
Operating Cash Flow	-0.96	-62.69	-50.58	-50.63	-58.54
Free Cash Flow	-0.96	-85.43	-59.64	-61.73	-77.22

Data as of Dec 31, 2025

Key Ratios

Liquidity · Leverage · Efficiency · Returns

Section Score

3/10

Rigetti Computing, Inc. exhibits weak financial health. Liquidity, as indicated by the Quick Ratio and Current Ratio, has significantly improved over the period, suggesting a strong ability to meet short-term obligations. However, leverage remains a concern. While the Debt/Equity Ratio has decreased, the Net Debt/EBITDA and Net Debt/FCF ratios show increasing negative trends, indicating growing reliance on debt relative to earnings and cash flow. Efficiency metrics like Asset Turnover have declined, suggesting assets are not being utilized productively. Profitability and returns are consistently negative across all metrics (ROE, ROA, ROIC, ROCE), with no clear signs of improvement, highlighting a persistent inability to generate positive returns from its operations and capital.

Ratios are dimensionless unless otherwise noted

Metric	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	Current
Period Ending	Dec 31, 2021	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2025	Apr 23, 2026
Debt / Equity Ratio	2.42	0.19	0.15	0.05	0.01	0.01
Quick Ratio	1.75	6.85	3.61	16.39	36.71	36.71
Current Ratio	2.39	7.1	3.71	17.42	37.42	37.42
ROEReturn on Equity (ROE)	-231.82%	-89.28%	-57.82%	-170.20%	-64.27%	-64.27%
ROAReturn on Assets (ROA)	-10.56%	-87.31%	-39.79%	-30.81%	-17.80%	-17.80%
ROICReturn on Invested Capital (ROIC)	-16.96%	-274.73%	-150.40%	-106.43%	-56.99%	-56.99%
ROCEReturn on Capital Employed (ROCE)	-12.62%	-98.92%	-46.26%	-33.93%	-18.26%	-18.26%

Data as of Apr 23, 2026

Growth

Revenue · EPS · Valuation · Estimates

Section Score

5/10

Rigetti Computing has experienced a challenging period with revenue contractions from FY 2023 to FY 2025, following earlier growth. However, analyst estimates project a significant turnaround, with revenue growth expected to surge by 225.06% in FY 2026 and nearly 100% in FY 2027, indicating a strong recovery. EPS remains negative throughout the forecast period, suggesting the company is still in a growth phase with profitability yet to be achieved. The absence of Forward P/E data for all years limits valuation analysis. Analyst sentiment is robust, with a "Strong Buy" consensus rating from 9 analysts and a tight price target range (median $31, average $30.78). The recommendation trend shows improving sentiment, with "Strong Buy" recommendations increasing from 3 in November '25 to 5 in April '26, reflecting growing confidence in the company's future prospects despite the current unprofitability.

Analyst Price Targets

Low$15-11.03%

Median$31+83.87%

Average$30.78+82.56%

High$43+155.04%

Strong BuyConsensus rating based on analyst coverage

9 analysts

Recommendation Trends

Rating	Nov '25	Dec '25	Jan '26	Feb '26	Mar '26	Apr '26
Strong Buy	3	3	4	4	5	5
Buy	1	3	3	3	3	3
Hold	1	2	1	1	1	1
Sell	0	0	0	0	0	0
Strong Sell	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	5	8	8	8	9	9

Financial Forecast

Metric	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	FY 2026	FY 2027
Revenue	8.94B	13.10B	12.01B	10.79B	7.09B	23.04B	45.98B
Revenue Growth	+61.32%	+46.54%	-8.35%	-10.14%	-34.31%	+225.06%	+99.56%
EPS	-1.79	-0.70	-0.57	-1.09	-0.70	-0.19	-0.19
EPS Growth	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Forward P/E	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Revenue in USD · EPS per share · Price targets in USD

Data as of FY 2027 · Italic columns are analyst estimates

Fair Value Estimation

DCF · -89.6% Margin of Safety · Overvalued

AI Fair Value Estimate (DCF)

$1.76vs$16.86

Margin of Safety-89.6%

Overvalued — Priced above estimated fair value

DCF is the appropriate valuation model for Rigetti Computing as it is a non-financial company, despite currently having negative EBITDA and FCF. The model will project a path to profitability and positive cash flow over the projection period.

AI Valuation Verdict

Rigetti Computing is valued using a 10-year Discounted Cash Flow model, appropriate for this early-stage technology company with negative current profitability. Key assumptions include a WACC of 9.48%, a revenue growth fading from -34.29% in year 1 to a 2.5% terminal growth rate, and EBITDA margin expanding from -1078.84% to a steady-state of 15% over the projection period. The CapEx to Revenue ratio is held constant at 26.35%. The model indicates a fair value of $1.76 per share, suggesting the stock is significantly overvalued at its current price of $16.86. A faster path to profitability or higher terminal growth would be required to justify the current valuation.

DCF Assumptions

WACC

9.5%

Weighted avg cost of capital

Revenue Growth (10Y)

27.6%

CAGR assumption

EBITDA Margin

15.0%

Steady-state projection

CapEx / Revenue

26.4%

Capital investment

Terminal Growth

2.5%

Long-run growth rate

Projection Period

10 yrs

Explicit forecast horizon

Projected Cash Flows

Values in millions USD

Year	Revenue	EBITDA	FCF	Discounted FCF
Yr 1	5	-50	-54	-49
Yr 2	6	-49	-51	-42
Yr 3	8	-47	-47	-36
Yr 4	11	-43	-42	-29
Yr 5	14	-37	-34	-22
Yr 6	18	-29	-25	-14
Yr 7	24	-19	-13	-7
Yr 8	32	-5	1	1
Yr 9	42	15	20	9
Yr 10	55	39	43	17
Terminal Value (PV)				53

Key Valuation Ratios

Current vs 5-year average

PS Ratio

790.08x

4Y avg 363.82x

+117.2% vs avg

A multiple below its own multi-year average can indicate the stock is cheaper than its recent history — context, not a standalone signal.

Sign in to see the full analysis

The Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow, Key Ratios, Forecast, and Fair Value analysis are available to registered users — it's free.

Sign In to Run AI-Powered Technical Analysis

Create a free account to run a fresh technical analysis across three timeframes — short, medium, and long term.

Frequently asked questions about Rigetti Computing, Inc.

Does Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) have an economic moat?: MoatScan AI rates Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) 18/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. Rigetti has interesting technology and a credible position in superconducting quantum computing, but it does not yet possess a durable economic moat.Sign in free to see the Moat Type verdict and the pillar-by-pillar reasoning.
What is Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s moat score?: Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) has a moat score of 18/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.Sign in free to see each pillar rating, the Moat Type verdict and the moat trend.
Is RGTI stock overvalued or undervalued?: MoatScan AI answers this by estimating RGTI's intrinsic value with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, then comparing that estimate to the current market price. A share price meaningfully below the estimate is flagged undervalued; meaningfully above it, overvalued. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis.Sign in free to see the fair value estimate, the implied upside or downside, and the verdict.
What is Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s fair value estimate?: MoatScan AI derives Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s (RGTI) fair value per share from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.Sign in free to see the estimate and the full assumptions behind it.

Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

RGTI$16.86

Sign in to see the full analysis

Sign in to see the full analysis

Sign In to Run AI-Powered Technical Analysis

Frequently asked questions about Rigetti Computing, Inc.

Other No Moat companies