RTX$198.16
RTX Corporation
Moat Score
62/100
RTX has a durable but not dominant competitive position built on mission-critical aerospace and defense franchises. Its strongest moats come from long certification cycles, entrenched customer relationships, high reliability requirements, and the installed base of engines, avionics, and missile systems that support recurring aftermarket revenue. The company benefits from scale and an oligopolistic industry structure, especially in defense. However, it lacks strong network effects, faces meaningful procurement and execution risk, and operates in segments with only moderate pricing power. Recent legal settlements and Pratt & Whitney engine quality issues cloud near-term perception, but they do not erase the underlying structural advantages. Overall, RTX looks like a solid Narrow Moat business with a stable moat trajectory.
Limited Ecosystem Pull
Pillar Strength
2.5/10
RTX has very little true network effect. Its products are not more valuable simply because more customers use them, and aerospace and defense buyers do not join a self-reinforcing user base in the way software or payments platforms do. Some ecosystem benefits exist through interoperability, parts commonality, and fleet standardization, especially around aircraft engines and defense systems, but these are not classic network effects. Customers choose suppliers based on performance, certification, reliability, and total lifecycle cost rather than the size of the installed user community. Multi-homing is common because airlines, militaries, and primes routinely source across multiple vendors. As a result, network reinforcement is weak and only slightly supports the broader franchise, not the core moat.
Certification Lock-In
Pillar Strength
7.5/10
Switching costs are meaningful across RTX’s businesses, especially in commercial engines, avionics, and defense platforms. Airlines face long qualification cycles, maintenance planning, inventory changes, training requirements, and operational risk when replacing certified components. Defense customers face even greater inertia because systems must integrate with existing platforms, command networks, logistics chains, and maintenance infrastructures. Once an engine or avionics package is embedded in a fleet, the aftermarket relationship can last for decades and creates recurring revenue streams. Switching is possible, but it is slow, expensive, and operationally disruptive. The moat is not absolute because customers can dual-source or shift future programs, yet the combination of certification, reliability, and installed-base dependence creates strong friction that meaningfully protects share and margins.
Trusted Technical Brands
Pillar Strength
7.5/10
RTX benefits from valuable intangible assets, including proprietary engineering know-how, long-lived patents, product certifications, and trusted brands such as Pratt & Whitney, Collins Aerospace, and Raytheon. In aerospace and defense, reputation is itself an asset because buyers heavily weight reliability, safety, and mission performance. The company’s platforms often require years of testing and qualification before revenue begins, which makes copycat entry difficult. Defense programs also involve classified or specialized capabilities that are not easily replicated by smaller competitors. However, the moat is not purely brand-led, and legal or technical advantages can erode if execution falters, as seen in recent engine quality issues and compliance settlements. Even so, RTX’s intellectual capital and certified product base remain a substantial barrier to entry.
Scale Without Dominance
Pillar Strength
6.5/10
RTX has real but not overwhelming cost advantages. Its large production footprint, global supply chain, installed base, and high volumes in engines, avionics, and missiles support purchasing leverage, learning-curve benefits, and better absorption of fixed overhead than smaller peers. The company also benefits from aftermarket economics, where a large fleet can generate higher-margin service and parts revenue over time. Still, this is not a decisive low-cost structure. Aerospace manufacturing is capital intensive, labor intensive, and subject to quality constraints that can offset scale benefits, while defense programs often rely on cost-plus or negotiated pricing rather than pure scale economics. Competitors such as GE Aerospace, Safran, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and BAE can compete effectively. The edge is meaningful, but not structurally unassailable.
Oligopoly Economics
Pillar Strength
7/10
RTX operates in markets with efficient-scale characteristics, especially defense systems and certain aerospace subsystems where only a few large players can serve the market economically. Entry barriers are high because customers demand deep technical capability, long program track records, security clearance, and substantial capital investment. In many programs, the number of credible bidders is limited, which reduces competitive intensity and supports disciplined returns. The market is not a pure natural monopoly, however, because several major rivals remain viable and large buyers can split awards or shift sourcing over time. Commercial aerospace is also more cyclical and competitive than defense. Still, the combination of high barriers, long development cycles, and a relatively concentrated supplier base gives RTX an important scale-based structural advantage.
Management Quality Assessment
Verdict
Concerning
RTX's management is competent on structure but not a clear capital-allocation standout. Greg Hayes ran UTC and then RTX through the 2020 merger with Raytheon, the Otis/Carrier separations, and the 2023 rebranding/reorganization; new CEO Christopher Calio has only been in place since May 2024, so his record is still short. Capital allocation has been mixed: the $23 billion Rockwell Collins deal and other large acquisitions were aggressive, while the portfolio simplification did create a cleaner aerospace/defense mix. Insider ownership appears modest, though the trend is uncertain. CEO compensation does not obviously look misaligned, but the main issue is governance: RTX paid about $950 million in 2024 settlements and a $200 million ITAR fine, pointing to serious control failures.
Key Highlights
- Greg Hayes led the company through the 2020 Raytheon–UTC merger and the subsequent spin-offs of Otis and Carrier, then the company was rebranded RTX in 2023. That simplification improved strategic focus, especially for a defense/aerospace pure play.
- Capital allocation has been mixed rather than exemplary: the $23 billion Rockwell Collins acquisition was a very large bet and increased integration risk, even though it helped build Collins Aerospace.
- The board authorized a $5 billion share repurchase in December 2020 during the pandemic downturn, suggesting some willingness to buy opportunistically, but repurchase discipline has not been clearly exceptional.
- RTX agreed to pay more than $950 million in 2024 to resolve federal investigations and was fined $200 million for export-control violations. These compliance failures are a material governance red flag, even if much of the misconduct predated 2020.
- Insider ownership and the direction of insider buying/selling are not clearly disclosed in the available evidence, so alignment is hard to verify from ownership trends alone.
AI Impact Assessment
AI Opportunity
AI Threat
Net AI Impact
Net Reinforcer. RTX’s moat is built on long-cycle defense procurement, certified propulsion and weapons IP, deep OEM integration, and government trust; AI does not quickly unwind those pillars. Factually, RTX already operates in avionics, missiles, cybersecurity, ISR, and command-and-control, where AI can improve sensor fusion, predictive maintenance, target recognition, and engineering throughput. Inference: these gains should strengthen performance and switching costs more than create a new stand-alone AI growth engine, because customers still pay for hardware, certification, and mission assurance. The key near-term uncertainty is whether AI-native software, autonomy, or drone competitors can win niche programs in ISR or mission systems faster than RTX can embed AI across Collins, Pratt & Whitney, and Raytheon.
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Financial Score
75/100
Executive summary will appear after all sections are analysed.
Income Statement
Revenue · Margins · Profitability
Section Score
7.5/10
RTX Corporation is not a financial company, operating in aerospace and defense. The company demonstrates strong growth trends, with revenue accelerating from 2.75% in FY2023 to 17.15% in FY2024, before settling at 9.74% in FY2025. Net income also surged, particularly in FY2024 (49.42%) and FY2025 (41.01%), indicating a robust recovery after a dip in FY2023. Gross margins have generally improved, from 17.54% in FY2023 to 20.08% in FY2025, alongside operating margins rising from 5.17% to 10.5% over the same period, suggesting enhanced efficiency. The dip in FY2023's operating and net income appears to be a one-off event. Compared to its industrial sector peers, RTX exhibits solid performance. While the company has shown impressive recovery and growth, the volatility in profitability in FY2023 is a minor flag, albeit one that has been effectively addressed by management in subsequent years.
Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified
| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Ending | Dec 31, 2025 | Dec 31, 2024 | Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 |
| Revenue | 88,603 | 80,738 | 68,920 | 67,074 | 64,388 |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | 9.74% | 17.15% | 2.75% | 4.17% | 13.79% |
| Net Income | 6,732 | 4,774 | 3,195 | 5,197 | 3,864 |
| Net Income Growth | 41.01% | 49.42% | -38.52% | 34.50% | — |
| Profit Margin | 7.98% | 6.21% | 4.90% | 7.94% | 6.44% |
Data as of Dec 31, 2025
Balance Sheet
Assets · Liabilities · Equity
Section Score
7.5/10
RTX Corporation exhibits a generally healthy balance sheet with some areas for close monitoring. Total Current Assets have shown consistent growth, increasing from $42,050 million in FY2021 to $60,332 million in FY2025, outpacing Total Current Liabilities which grew from $35,449 million to $58,784 million over the same period, indicating solid liquidity and working capital. However, Total Liabilities also increased substantially, rising from $86,705 million to $103,941 million, driven largely by a significant jump in Long-Term Debt in FY2023. While Total Assets grew, a substantial portion is goodwill and other intangibles. Shareholders' Equity saw a dip in FY2023 but has since recovered, suggesting resilience. The company's net debt position has increased, but the recent decrease in FY2025 indicates a potential stabilization.
Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified
| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Ending | Dec 31, 2025 | Dec 31, 2024 | Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 |
| Total Current Assets | 60,332 | 51,133 | 48,417 | 42,443 | 42,050 |
| Total Assets | 171,079 | 162,861 | 161,869 | 158,864 | 161,404 |
| Total Current Liabilities | 58,784 | 51,499 | 46,761 | 39,114 | 35,449 |
| Total Liabilities | 103,941 | 100,903 | 100,424 | 84,650 | 86,705 |
Data as of Dec 31, 2025
Cash Flow Statement
Operations · Investing · Financing
Section Score
7.5/10
RTX Corporation demonstrates solid operating cash flow (OCF) generation, growing from $7,142 million in FY2021 to $10,567 million in FY2025, with a notable jump in the latest year. Free cash flow (FCF) also shows a positive trajectory, reaching $7,940 million in FY2025, suggesting a healthy ability to cover capital expenditures. The company consistently reinvests through capital expenditures, averaging around $2.5 billion annually, indicating ongoing investment in its operations. Capital allocation reflects a balance between debt repayment and consistent dividend payments, with significant share repurchases in prior years, though reduced recently. While OCF growth has shown some annual fluctuations, the overall trend supports a robust cash generation profile suitable for an industrial company of this scale.
Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified
| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Ending | Dec 31, 2025 | Dec 31, 2024 | Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10,567 | 7,159 | 7,883 | 7,168 | 7,142 |
| Operating Cash Flow Growth | 47.60% | -9.18% | 9.98% | 0.36% | 64.79% |
| Free Cash Flow | 7,940 | 4,534 | 5,468 | 4,880 | 5,008 |
| Free Cash Flow Growth | 75.12% | -17.08% | 12.05% | -2.56% | 97.24% |
Data as of Dec 31, 2025
Key Ratios
Liquidity · Leverage · Efficiency · Returns
Section Score
7.5/10
RTX Corporation is not a financial company. Its liquidity, as indicated by the current and quick ratios, has generally declined over the years, though showing a slight improvement in the latest periods. The current ratio stands at 1.03 and the quick ratio at 0.67, suggesting some room for improvement in meeting short-term obligations. Leverage ratios show variability, with Debt/Equity peaking in FY2023 but generally stabilizing. The company's efficiency metrics, such as asset turnover, have shown a modest upward trend, indicating better asset utilization. Inventory turnover, however, saw a significant drop in the most recent period. Profitability and returns, including ROE, ROA, and ROIC, have exhibited an improving trend after a dip in FY2023, reflecting strengthening capital returns.
Ratios are dimensionless unless otherwise noted
| Metric | Current | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Ending | Mar 20, 2026 | Dec 31, 2025 | Dec 31, 2024 | Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 |
| Debt / Equity Ratio | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.65 | 0.72 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.6 | 0.63 | 0.69 | 0.81 |
| Current Ratio | 1.03 | 1.03 | 0.99 | 1.04 | 1.09 | 1.19 |
| ROEReturn on Equity (ROE) | 10.95% | 10.95% | 8.12% | 4.98% | 7.15% | 5.58% |
| ROAReturn on Assets (ROA) | 4.51% | 4.51% | 3.26% | 1.96% | 2.99% | 2.58% |
| ROICReturn on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 5.86% | 5.86% | 4.16% | 2.45% | 3.67% | 3.17% |
| ROCEReturn on Capital Employed (ROCE) | 8.32% | 8.32% | 5.77% | 3.03% | 4.48% | 4.07% |
Data as of Mar 20, 2026
Growth
Revenue · EPS · Valuation · Estimates
Section Score
7.5/10
RTX Corporation exhibits a robust growth trajectory, transitioning from a period of slower growth in 2022-2023 (4.17% and 2.75% revenue growth respectively) into a strong recovery, with forecast revenue growth peaking at 17.15% in 2024. This rebound is sustained by estimated double-digit EPS growth through 2026, significantly outpacing revenue, indicating potential margin expansion. The forward P/E ratios of 28.72 (2026) and 26.12 (2027) appear to reflect this strong expected growth. Analyst sentiment is positive, with a consensus "Buy" rating from 12 analysts and a median price target of $205. While the recommendation trend shows a slight shift from Strong Buy to Hold over recent months, overall conviction remains strong, supported by consistent analyst coverage.
| Rating | Mar '26 | Feb '26 | Jan '26 | Dec '25 | Nov '25 | Oct '25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Buy | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Buy | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Hold | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Sell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Strong Sell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| Metric | FY 2027 | FY 2026 | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 100.56B | 94.29B | 88.60B | 80.74B | 68.92B | 67.07B | 64.39B |
| Revenue Growth | +6.65% | +6.41% | +9.74% | +17.15% | +2.75% | +4.17% | +13.79% |
| EPS | 7.59 | 6.90 | 4.96 | 3.55 | 2.23 | 3.50 | 2.56 |
| EPS Growth | +9.95% | +39.10% | +39.72% | +59.19% | -36.24% | +36.71% | — |
| Forward P/E | 26.1x | 28.7x | — | — | — | — | — |
Revenue in USD · EPS per share · Price targets in USD
Data as of FY 2025 · Italic columns are analyst estimates
Fair Value Estimation
DCF · +21.2% Margin of Safety · Undervalued
AI Fair Value Estimate (DCF)
RTX Corporation is a mature industrial company with predictable and positive free cash flow, making a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model the most appropriate valuation method. The company's consistent cash generation and well-defined business segments within aerospace and defense support the reliability of long-term cash flow projections.
AI Valuation Verdict
RTX is well-suited for a DCF valuation due to its predictable and positive free cash flow generated from its stable aerospace and defense operations. Key assumptions include a WACC of 7.5%, a revenue growth rate of 6.0%, an EBITDA margin of 16.0%, CapEx to revenue of 3.5%, and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%. The projected fair value of $240.24 per share suggests the stock is undervalued, offering a 21.23% margin of safety from the current price. Sensitivity analysis indicates that a 1% change in WACC could alter the fair value by approximately 10-15%. A stronger defense spending environment or faster commercial aerospace recovery could lead to higher growth and margins, increasing the fair value. Conversely, unexpected program delays or increased competition could reduce profitability and fair value. The current analyst consensus of 'Buy' with a median target of $205 is below our intrinsic value, suggesting potential upside that the market may not fully appreciate.
DCF Assumptions
WACC
7.5%
Weighted avg cost of capital
Revenue Growth (5Y)
6.0%
CAGR assumption
EBITDA Margin
16.0%
Steady-state projection
CapEx / Revenue
3.5%
Capital investment
Terminal Growth
2.5%
Long-run growth rate
Projection Period
5 yrs
Explicit forecast horizon
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Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.