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SMCI$35.05

Super Micro Computer, Inc.

Last Updated
May 22, 20263 months ago
Moat & Trend
Management
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Competitive Radar

Moat Score

42/100

Executive Summary

Super Micro Computer has carved out a valuable role in AI and high-performance server infrastructure by shipping highly configurable systems quickly and by staying close to Nvidia’s roadmap. That operational agility has created pockets of pricing power and strong demand, especially in liquid-cooled and rack-scale AI deployments. However, the competitive advantage is mostly execution-based rather than structurally protected. Large OEMs, ODMs, and cloud infrastructure vendors can replicate much of the offering, while customer concentration, component dependence, and recurring governance/compliance issues weaken durability. The result is a business with attractive growth opportunities but no clearly enduring moat. Recent expansion in AI systems supports the trend, but credibility and compliance risks keep the moat outlook negative.

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Last Updated
May 22, 20263 months ago
Target Price
Analyst Consensus
FAIR VALUE
Financial Strength

Financial Score

56/100

Executive Summary

Super Micro Computer’s defining strength is its extraordinary revenue growth, with sales scaling from $3.6B to $22.0B and still expected to expand sharply, but that momentum is increasingly offset by weaker quality. Gross, operating, and EBITDA margins have compressed materially, and TTM free cash flow is deeply negative, reflecting volatile working capital, higher capex, and rising non-operating costs. The balance sheet remains functional and liquid, yet inventory, receivables, and debt have grown quickly, lifting leverage and reducing asset quality. Efficiency and returns have softened from prior peaks, while forward earnings recovery is plausible but uneven. Overall, SMCI presents a high-growth, mid-quality financial profile with solid liquidity but pronounced profitability and cash flow volatility, consistent with its mixed ratings.

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Frequently asked questions about Super Micro Computer, Inc.

Does Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) have an economic moat?
MoatScan AI rates Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) 42/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. Super Micro Computer has carved out a valuable role in AI and high-performance server infrastructure by shipping highly configurable systems quickly and by staying close to Nvidia’s roadmap.Sign in free to see the Moat Type verdict and the pillar-by-pillar reasoning.
What is Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s moat score?
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) has a moat score of 42/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.Sign in free to see each pillar rating, the Moat Type verdict and the moat trend.
Is SMCI stock overvalued or undervalued?
MoatScan AI answers this by estimating SMCI's intrinsic value with a P/S model, then comparing that estimate to the current market price. A share price meaningfully below the estimate is flagged undervalued; meaningfully above it, overvalued. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis.Sign in free to see the fair value estimate, the implied upside or downside, and the verdict.
What is Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s fair value estimate?
MoatScan AI derives Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s (SMCI) fair value per share from a P/S model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.Sign in free to see the estimate and the full assumptions behind it.

Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.