Does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) have an economic moat?

MoatScan AI rates Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) 82/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. TSMC is the central manufacturing gatekeeper for the most advanced logic chips in smartphones, AI accelerators, and high-performance computing.

What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.'s moat score?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) has a moat score of 82/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.

How does TSM's share price compare with its estimated fair value?

MoatScan AI estimates TSM's intrinsic value with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and shows how that estimate compares with the market price at the time of analysis. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis and is a research estimate, not a recommendation.

What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.'s fair value estimate?

MoatScan AI derives Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.'s (TSM) fair value per share from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.

Back to Database

TSM$417.52

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.

Last Updated

Sep 2, 2026about 1 month ago

Moat & Trend

Management

AI Impact

Competitive Radar

Moat Score

82/100

Executive Summary

TSMC is the central manufacturing gatekeeper for the most advanced logic chips in smartphones, AI accelerators, and high-performance computing. Its moat is built on process leadership, enormous capital intensity, deep co-development with customers, and an ecosystem that reinforces its status as the default choice for frontier designs. The company also benefits from efficient scale in advanced foundry manufacturing, where very few rivals can credibly match its combination of volume, yield, and time-to-market. Weaknesses remain real: the foundry cycle is volatile, fixed costs are high, and geopolitical exposure in Taiwan forces costly geographic diversification. Even so, the structural position is exceptional. Customers at the leading edge cannot easily switch, and TSMC’s roadmap keeps widening the performance gap that supports its Wide Moat.

Network Effects

Ecosystem Gravity

Pillar Strength

5.5/10

TSMC does not have a consumer-style network effect, but its ecosystem is meaningfully reinforcing. The more leading fabless designers standardize on TSMC's process nodes, PDKs, libraries, packaging flows, and design rules, the more third-party IP, EDA support, and manufacturing know-how accumulate around those nodes. Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, and Broadcom all contribute volume, validation, and credibility that makes TSMC the default choice for new advanced designs. Customers can multi-home on older nodes, so the effect is not self-reinforcing enough to be dominant, but at the cutting edge it reduces the appeal of alternatives and deepens the gravity of the ecosystem.

Switching Costs

Deep Design Lock-In

Pillar Strength

9/10

Switching costs are very high once a customer has designed around a TSMC node. Moving a flagship chip means re-qualifying process design kits, re-optimizing power and performance targets, revalidating yield, and often changing packaging and backend flows. For AI and mobile leaders, a miss on timing can mean losing an entire product cycle, so the cost of switching is not just engineering expense but commercial risk. Customers can and do dual-source on mature nodes, yet the frontier is different: the more complex the chip, the more the accumulated learning curve matters. That makes TSMC the path of least resistance for the most valuable designs.

Intangible Assets

Process Leadership Trust

Pillar Strength

8.5/10

TSMC's intangible edge comes from a rare mix of proprietary process expertise, trade secrets, patents, and a brand synonymous with leading-edge execution. Its value is not a consumer brand premium, but the trust that customers place in its ability to bring the newest node to volume production on schedule. That trust was built over decades through first-to-market EUV adoption, successful node transitions, and the ability to manufacture for the most demanding designers. The company’s know-how is difficult to copy because much of it is tacit: yield learning, defect control, tool integration, and design-rule refinement. Those capabilities are hard to buy and harder to accelerate.

Cost Advantages

Scale-Driven Economics

Pillar Strength

9/10

TSMC enjoys substantial cost advantages from scale, utilization, and manufacturing learning effects. Spreading enormous R&D and capex budgets across the largest advanced-node customer base lowers per-unit economics and supports faster learning than smaller rivals can match. High-volume production also improves tool utilization, supply-chain leverage, and yield recovery, which matter immensely in leading-edge semiconductors. The company can fund successive node transitions while maintaining a broad technology stack from mature to frontier processes, making it harder for competitors to narrow the gap. Offshore expansion raises costs in some locations, but that does not erase the underlying advantage: the most efficient way to make advanced logic at scale is still to run through TSMC's operating system.

Efficient Scale

Advanced Foundry Oligopoly

Pillar Strength

9/10

Advanced foundry manufacturing is a classic efficient-scale business, because the market can support only a few serious players and the fixed-cost burden is enormous. At the frontier, TSMC sits in an entrenched oligopoly with Samsung and a much smaller set of alternatives, while many other foundries focus on mature nodes. The capital required to build and continuously upgrade fabs, plus the need for rare process talent and customer trust, creates a steep barrier to entry. New entrants can appear at the margins, but they are unlikely to displace the incumbent leader in the next generation of high-end logic. That leaves TSMC with a structurally protected position.

Moat Type & Trend

Why this company earns its moat rating, and where the moat is heading

Moat Type

Wide Moat

Trend

Positive

Why This Rating

TSMC earns a Wide Moat because its advantage is not merely scale, but a repeated ability to manufacture the hardest chips at the frontier while sustaining industry-leading yield and reliability. A customer qualifying a leading-edge design on TSMC has embedded years of process tuning, library work, packaging decisions, and supply-chain coordination that are difficult to unwind. Rivals can build fabs, but they cannot quickly replicate the accumulated manufacturing know-how, customer trust, and cadence across successive nodes. Even if more regional capacity appears, the center of gravity for bleeding-edge logic is likely to remain with TSMC.

Why This Trend

The moat trend is Positive because TSMC continues to extend its lead at the most valuable end of the market, with 3nm ramping, 2nm and A13 on the roadmap, and AI/HPC demand pulling more volume toward its newest nodes. The company’s larger capital plan and ongoing overseas expansion are signs that the business is converting technical leadership into more scale and deeper customer reliance. A change to Stable or Negative would require persistent yield or schedule slippage, or a competitor matching TSMC’s leading-node performance and volume at comparable economics.

Management Quality Assessment

Evaluating leadership track record, capital allocation, and governance

Verdict

Strong

C. C. Wei has led TSMC as CEO since 2018 and added the chairmanship in 2024, after decades inside the company in operating and business-development roles; that internal succession has preserved continuity rather than creating founder dependence. Management has been disciplined on capital allocation: TSMC keeps reinvesting heavily in leading-edge capacity, yet ROIC remains exceptional (about 44% TTM versus roughly 32% over three years), dividends have risen steadily without a cut since 2004, and buybacks have been used selectively rather than aggressively. Insider ownership is modest and the direction is unclear from public disclosures. Wei’s NT$2.42b pay is high in absolute terms, but it tracks a company that has delivered superior growth and returns. No major governance red flags are evident; the board includes multiple independent directors.

Key Highlights

C. C. Wei has been CEO since June 2018 and became chairman in June 2024, after serving in senior TSMC roles since 1998. This is a long-tenured internal succession rather than a founder-led structure.
Capital allocation has been disciplined: TSMC combines heavy organic investment with very high ROIC, while maintaining a rising dividend and selective repurchases instead of large, risky M&A.
TSMC’s ROIC is exceptionally high, around 44% TTM versus roughly 32% on a three-year average, indicating management has preserved strong returns despite massive fab spending.
The company has not cut its dividend since 2004, and recent payouts and buybacks suggest management is returning cash while still funding growth.
Insider ownership is relatively modest at the CEO level, and the public record does not show a clear upward or downward trend; CEO pay is rich, but not obviously misaligned given performance.

AI Impact Assessment

Evaluating how AI strengthens or disrupts existing moat pillars

Net Reinforcer. AI strengthens TSMC’s moat primarily through scale, process know-how, and customer lock-in: its vast wafer-level production data lets it use AI for yield learning, defect detection, dispatching, and utilities optimization, and those feedback loops are hard for new entrants to duplicate quickly. AI demand is also pushing mix toward leading-edge 3nm/2nm logic and advanced packaging, where TSMC already holds the clearest execution lead and deepest customer relationships. The threat is less about model substitution than about competitors improving faster and compressing the lead. Key uncertainty: whether Samsung, Intel Foundry, and China-linked capacity can narrow advanced-node execution enough to pressure pricing or share within the next few years.

AI Opportunity Highlights

7 / 10

TSMC's massive proprietary wafer and process dataset gives its AI systems a training base for yield, defect, and recipe optimization that rivals cannot replicate without similar fab scale.
AI-driven process control can improve yields and tool utilization at 3nm and 2nm nodes, directly enhancing returns on TSMC's multi-year capex program.
Demand for AI accelerators is increasing TSMC's mix of leading-edge logic and advanced packaging, deepening lock-in with customers such as Nvidia, AMD, and hyperscale cloud designers.
AI can optimize power, water, logistics, and dispatch across a global fab network, lowering cost per wafer in one of the world's most resource-intensive manufacturing operations.

AI Threat Highlights

3 / 10

Samsung and other foundry rivals are using AI to improve process control and accelerate advanced-node roadmaps, which could narrow TSMC's execution lead over time.
AI-assisted chip design lowers barriers for fabless entrants, increasing the number of customers chasing advanced-node capacity and making pricing more contestable.
Large hyperscalers are designing more custom AI silicon, which can strengthen customer bargaining power and shift some value away from the foundry layer.

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Last Updated

Aug 30, 2026about 1 month ago

Target Price

Analyst Consensus

FAIR VALUE

Financial Strength

Financial Score

87/100

Executive Summary

TSMC’s defining strength is its exceptional combination of scale, profitability, and balance-sheet resilience. Revenue has accelerated from TWD 1.59tn in FY2021 to TWD 3.81tn in FY2025, with TTM revenue of TWD 4.44tn and net income of TWD 2.22tn, supported by industry-leading gross and operating margins. This operating strength is reinforced by very strong liquidity and solvency: cash and short-term investments of TWD 3.52tn exceed total debt of TWD 1.07tn, while leverage ratios and working capital coverage have improved meaningfully. Cash generation remains robust despite heavy capital expenditure, with free cash flow still above TWD 1.0tn and rising. The main tension is that earnings quality can be affected by non-operating gains and ongoing capex intensity, leaving TSMC exposed to semiconductor cyclicality. Even so, the overall profile is outstanding, consistent with the very high ratings across earnings, balance sheet, cash flow, ratios, and growth outlook.

Income Statement

Revenue · Margins · Profitability

Section Score

8.5/10

TSMC shows strong multi-year growth, with revenue rising from TWD 1.59tn in FY2021 to TWD 3.81tn in FY2025, while TTM revenue is even stronger at TWD 4.44tn, indicating continued acceleration. Net income follows the same pattern, expanding from TWD 592bn to TWD 1.70tn, with TTM at TWD 2.22tn. Margin quality is excellent and improving: gross margin recovered to 59.9% in FY2025 and 64.2% TTM, while operating margin reached 50.9% and 56.1% TTM. Earnings appear durable, though TTM includes a sizable gain on investment sales and other non-operating volatility. Compared with typical semiconductor peers, these margins and growth rates are outstanding, though capital intensity and cyclical demand remain key risks.

Financials are in millions TWD unless otherwise specified

Metric	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	TTM
Period Ending	Dec 31, 2021	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2025	Jun 30, 2026
Revenue	1,587,415	2,263,891	2,161,736	2,894,308	3,809,054	4,440,492
Revenue Growth	18.53%	42.61%	-4.51%	33.89%	31.61%	30.56%
Net Income	592,359	992,923	851,740	1,158,380	1,697,604	2,216,808
Net Income Growth	15.98%	67.62%	-14.22%	36.00%	46.55%	53.42%
Profit Margin	37.32%	43.86%	39.40%	40.02%	44.57%	49.92%

Data as of Jun 30, 2026

Balance Sheet

Assets · Liabilities · Equity

Section Score

9/10

TSM’s balance sheet remains exceptionally strong. Cash and equivalents rose to TWD 3.13 trillion, with cash and short-term investments of TWD 3.52 trillion, supporting ample near-term liquidity. Total current assets climbed to TWD 4.66 trillion versus current liabilities of TWD 1.86 trillion, leaving working capital at TWD 2.71 trillion, a very comfortable buffer. Solvency is also robust: total liabilities of TWD 2.90 trillion are well covered by total assets of TWD 9.38 trillion, while shareholders’ equity reached TWD 6.47 trillion. Total debt of TWD 1.07 trillion is modest relative to cash, producing net cash of TWD 2.45 trillion. The main watchpoint is steadily rising accrued expenses and debt, but overall leverage and equity trends remain highly favorable.

Financials are in millions TWD unless otherwise specified

Metric	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	Current
Period Ending	Dec 31, 2021	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2025	Jun 30, 2026
Total Current Assets	1,607,073	2,052,897	2,194,033	3,088,352	3,817,131	4,565,701
Total Assets	3,725,302	4,964,459	5,532,197	6,691,765	7,932,843	9,375,655
Total Current Liabilities	758,353	986,564	942,805	1,308,656	1,522,414	1,857,762
Total Liabilities	1,573,620	2,046,627	2,078,330	2,412,493	2,536,623	2,901,184

Data as of Jun 30, 2026

Cash Flow Statement

Operations · Investing · Financing

Section Score

8.5/10

Cash generation is very strong and broadly improving. Operating cash flow rose from TWD 1,112,161 million in FY2021 to TWD 2,274,976 million in FY2025, with TTM at TWD 2,634,679 million, above the latest fiscal year. Free cash flow also remains healthy despite very large capital spending, increasing to TWD 1,002,565 million in FY2025 and TWD 1,143,556 million TTM, showing reinvestment is still producing meaningful surplus cash. The main pressure point is heavy CapEx, which stayed above TWD 950,000 million in most years and reached TWD 1,272,411 million in FY2025. Dividend payouts are rising, while debt use looks contained. Working capital swings are material, but not destabilizing.

Financials are in millions TWD unless otherwise specified

Metric	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	TTM
Period Ending	Dec 31, 2021	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2025	Jun 30, 2026
Operating Cash Flow	1,112,161	1,610,599	1,241,967	1,826,177	2,274,976	2,634,679
Operating Cash Flow Growth	35.19%	44.82%	-22.89%	47.04%	24.58%	23.41%
Free Cash Flow	272,965	527,927	292,151	870,171	1,002,565	1,143,556
Free Cash Flow Growth	-13.46%	93.41%	-44.66%	197.85%	15.21%	21.95%
Free Cash Flow Margin	17.20%	23.32%	13.51%	30.06%	26.32%	25.75%

Data as of Jun 30, 2026

Key Ratios

Liquidity · Leverage · Efficiency · Returns

Section Score

9/10

Liquidity has improved steadily, with the current ratio rising from 2.12 to 2.46 and the quick ratio from 1.85 to 2.13, indicating comfortable short-term coverage. Leverage has also become more conservative: debt-to-equity declined from 0.35 to 0.17, while debt-to-EBITDA fell from 0.71 to 0.34, suggesting a manageable and strengthening balance sheet. Efficiency is solid, with asset turnover improving from 0.49 to 0.54; inventory turnover has been broadly stable, though it eased in the latest period. Profitability and returns are exceptionally strong, with ROE, ROA, ROIC, and ROCE all trending higher over time, reflecting durable capital efficiency and a consistently strong operating profile.

Ratios are dimensionless unless otherwise noted

Metric	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	Current
Period Ending	Dec 31, 2021	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2025	Aug 28, 2026
Debt / Equity Ratio	0.35	0.31	0.29	0.25	0.2	0.17
Quick Ratio	1.85	1.82	2	2.06	2.2	2.13
Current Ratio	2.12	2.08	2.33	2.36	2.51	2.46
ROEReturn on Equity (ROE)	29.74%	39.19%	26.71%	29.94%	35.04%	39.97%
ROAReturn on Assets (ROA)	12.53%	16.14%	10.97%	13.53%	16.55%	19.00%
ROICReturn on Invested Capital (ROIC)	37.44%	49.31%	32.02%	38.49%	51.02%	53.96%
ROCEReturn on Capital Employed (ROCE)	21.90%	28.20%	20.10%	24.60%	30.20%	33.10%

Data as of Aug 28, 2026

Growth

Revenue · EPS · Valuation · Estimates

Section Score

8.5/10

TSM shows a clear growth re-acceleration: revenue rose from 1.59T TWD in FY2021 to 2.26T TWD in FY2022, dipped modestly in FY2023, then recovered strongly to 2.89T TWD in FY2024 and 3.81T TWD in FY2025. The forward estimates point to another step-up, with revenue projected at 5.44T TWD in FY2026 and 7.29T TWD in FY2027, indicating accelerating compounding rather than a flat trend. EPS was volatile early, but recent growth has been strong and the forecast path remains robust, with FY2027 EPS growth still well above 30%, suggesting margins remain supported. Analyst sentiment is very positive: Strong Buy consensus from 19 analysts, a wide but favorable target range, and a stable recommendation mix with no bearish calls.

Third-party Analyst Price Targets

Low$440+5.38%

Median$538.5+28.98%

Average$554.45+32.80%

High$700+67.66%

Strong BuyConsensus rating and price targets published by third-party analysts. Not a MoatScan AI view.

19 analysts

Third-party Analyst Recommendation Trends

Rating	Mar '26	Apr '26	May '26	Jun '26	Jul '26	Aug '26
Strong Buy	12	12	12	12	12	12
Buy	6	5	5	5	6	6
Hold	1	2	2	2	1	1
Sell	0	0	0	0	0	0
Strong Sell	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	19	19	19	19	19	19

Forecast · Analyst Estimates

Revenue This Year5.44T

+42.69%from 3.81T

FY 2026

Revenue Next Year7.29T

+34.01%from 5.44T

FY 2027

EPS This Year· non-GAAP adj.107.64

+62.48%from 66.25

FY 2026

EPS Next Year· non-GAAP adj.142.13

+32.04%from 107.64

FY 2027

Historical · Reported Actuals

Metric	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	1.59T	2.26T	2.16T	2.89T	3.81T
Revenue Growth	—	+42.61%	-4.51%	+33.89%	+31.60%
EPS (GAAP diluted)	22.84	38.29	32.85	44.67	65.47
EPS Growth	—	+67.64%	-14.21%	+35.98%	+46.56%

Revenue in TWD · EPS per share · Price targets in USD

Data as of Dec 31, 2025 · Forecast EPS is analyst non-GAAP adjusted; historical EPS is GAAP diluted — not directly comparable.

Fair Value Estimation

DCF · Model estimate vs. price -29.3% · Price above model estimate

AI Fair Value Estimate (DCF)

$295.11vs$417.52

Model estimate vs. price-29.3%

Price above model estimate

A discounted cash flow framework fits TSM because the business is highly cash-generative, benefits from long-lived customer relationships, and has a visible operating ramp that can be translated into multi-year revenue and free cash flow estimates. The cash-flow path points to sustained margin strength, disciplined reinvestment through elevated capex, and gradual growth fade as the business scales, with the USD fair value converted at 1 TWD = 0.0316 USD.

AI Valuation Commentary

A DCF is the right lens for TSM because the company’s earnings power is driven by long-duration foundry demand, strong operating leverage, and measurable reinvestment needs. Using a 9.8% discount rate and 3% terminal growth, the model assumes 11.52% revenue CAGR, an 86.67% average EBITDA margin, and capex at 42.55% of revenue, with valuation most sensitive to WACC, terminal growth, and margin durability. The resulting fair value is 295.11 USD per share versus a current price of 417.52 USD, implying a -29.32% margin of safety and an Overvalued verdict. A stronger bull case would require higher sustained margins or faster growth; the bear case is a fading ramp or compression in returns.

DCF Assumptions

WACC

9.8%

Weighted avg cost of capital

Revenue Growth (10Y)

11.5%

CAGR assumption

EBITDA Margin

86.7%

Steady-state projection

CapEx / Revenue

42.5%

Capital investment

Terminal Growth

3.0%

Long-run growth rate

Projection Period

10 yrs

Explicit forecast horizon

Projected Cash Flows

Values in millions TWD

Year	Revenue	EBITDA	FCF	Discounted FCF
Yr 1	4,588,013	3,619,176	1,092,838	995,299
Yr 2	5,426,685	4,339,029	1,509,083	1,251,724
Yr 3	6,536,453	5,336,660	1,903,507	1,437,962
Yr 4	7,411,290	6,295,960	2,385,079	1,640,943
Yr 5	8,472,234	7,395,801	2,960,727	1,855,183
Yr 6	9,263,205	8,226,453	3,409,356	1,945,621
Yr 7	9,968,859	8,999,106	3,822,377	1,986,631
Yr 8	10,694,222	9,749,826	4,214,512	1,994,934
Yr 9	11,442,818	10,502,514	4,578,850	1,973,946
Yr 10	12,243,815	11,261,748	4,921,592	1,932,334
Terminal Value (PV)				29,269,178

Key Valuation Ratios

Current vs 5-year average

PE Ratio

28.44x

5Y avg 20.89x

+36.2% vs avg

P/FCF Ratio

54.83x

5Y avg 41.04x

+33.6% vs avg

PS Ratio

14.20x

5Y avg 8.50x

+67.1% vs avg

A multiple below its own multi-year average can indicate the stock is cheaper than its recent history — context, not a standalone signal.

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Last Updated

Aug 15, 2026

Short Term

Medium Term

Long Term

Technical Overview

$426.35Price at Analysis

TSM’s technical profile is broadly constructive across all three horizons, with the short term supported by bullish momentum and the medium and long term anchored by price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. RSI remains elevated but not excessive, MACD is positive, and the stock is still residing in the upper third of its 52-week range, which keeps the primary trend pointed higher. The one notable softness is fading volume, suggesting the move may need fresh participation to extend cleanly. Near term, the most relevant levels are the tight cluster around $424.6 to $428.55, while the weekly zone around $425.58 and $431.49 defines the next important medium-term battleground. On a broader basis, $451.75 and $474.36 mark the major long-term resistance area to monitor.

Short Term

1 to 4 weeks

Uptrend

TSM’s short-term setup remains constructive: price is above the 20-day moving average, MACD is firmly bullish, and RSI at 64.5 sits in a healthy momentum zone rather than an overbought extreme. The main caution is that volume is contracting and price is trading very close to the daily pivot, so upside may be less forceful until it clears nearby resistance.

Key Indicators

Price vs 20-day MA+3.45% above

Price vs 50-day MA+0.28% above

RSI (14-day)64.5

RSI InterpretationApproaching overbought

MACD TrendPositive (above signal)

Bollinger PositionUpper half

Volume TrendContracting

Support

$424.60$421.40$418.71

Resistance

$428.55$431.74$434.22

The nearest short-term levels cluster tightly around the current price, with support at $424.6 and immediate resistance at $428.55, making the daily pivot area the key battleground. In the 1–4 week window, a retest of either $424.6 support or $428.55 resistance looks highly likely, with $421.4 and $431.74 acting as the next layers if price expands.

Medium Term

1 to 6 months

Uptrend

The medium-term trend is supported by price holding above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, alongside Golden Cross territory and an established uptrend. Trading in the upper third of the 52-week range reinforces the constructive bias, though the modest distance above the 50-day MA suggests the trend is positive rather than stretched.

Key Indicators

Price vs 50-day MA+0.28% above

Price vs 200-day MA+17.29% above

52-Week Range PositionUpper third (79%)

Trend DirectionUptrend

MA Cross SignalGolden Cross territory

Relative Volume0.48x avg

Support

$425.58$404.11$397.48

Resistance

$431.49$442.95$459.59

Weekly pivots show confluence around $425.58 support and $431.49 resistance, which sit close to the 50-day MA area and may act as the first medium-term decision zone. Over 1–6 months, testing $431.49 or the deeper supports at $404.11 and $397.48 is plausible, with the broader weekly resistance band extending to $442.95 and $459.59.

Long Term

6 months and beyond

Uptrend

The long-term structure is still favorable because TSM remains well above the 200-day moving average and continues to trade in the upper portion of its 52-week range. Bollinger bandwidth is elevated, indicating a volatile but still upward-biased regime, while the absence of any death-cross pressure keeps the multi-month trend intact.

Key Indicators

Price vs 200-day MA+17.29% above

52-Week High$479.00

52-Week Low$223.70

Distance from 52w High-11.0%

BB Bandwidth13.1%

MA CrossoverNone detected

Support

$378.57$361.81$355.96

Resistance

$451.75$457.60$474.36

Monthly pivots frame a wider structural range, with major support at $378.57 and resistance beginning at $451.75, followed by $457.6 and $474.36. Over 6+ months, price is more likely to probe the upper monthly resistance zone and possibly revisit the 52-week high at $479 than to challenge the deep monthly supports unless trend conditions materially weaken.

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Frequently asked questions about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.

Does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) have an economic moat?: MoatScan AI rates Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) 82/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. TSMC is the central manufacturing gatekeeper for the most advanced logic chips in smartphones, AI accelerators, and high-performance computing.Sign in free to see the Moat Type verdict and the pillar-by-pillar reasoning.
What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.'s moat score?: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) has a moat score of 82/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.Sign in free to see each pillar rating, the Moat Type verdict and the moat trend.
How does TSM's share price compare with its estimated fair value?: MoatScan AI estimates TSM's intrinsic value with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and shows how that estimate compares with the market price at the time of analysis. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis and is a research estimate, not a recommendation.Sign in free to see the fair value estimate and how it compares with the price.
What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.'s fair value estimate?: MoatScan AI derives Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.'s (TSM) fair value per share from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.Sign in free to see the estimate and the full assumptions behind it.

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Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. MoatScan AI is an educational research tool. It is not licensed or registered with the Securities Commission Malaysia or any other financial regulator, and it holds no positions in, and receives no compensation from, any company analysed.

TSM$417.52

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