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TSM$436.39

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.

Last Updated
Jun 24, 202620 days ago
Moat & Trend
Management
Strong
Competitive Radar

Moat Score

80/100

Executive Summary

TSMC possesses one of the strongest moats in global industrial technology, anchored by its unmatched leadership in advanced-node foundry manufacturing. Its scale, process know-how, yield discipline, and customer trust make it the default partner for the world’s leading fabless designers, especially in AI and mobile computing. Switching costs are high because chip programs are deeply qualified to TSMC’s processes and supply-chain workflows, and competitors have struggled to match leading-edge performance and production quality. The main weaknesses are geopolitical concentration in Taiwan, capital intensity, and the difficulty of replicating its execution culture abroad. Even so, the moat is still strengthening as AI demand expands and TSMC pushes further ahead at 3nm and 2nm.

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Last Updated
Jun 24, 202620 days ago
Target Price
Analyst Consensus
Strong Buy19 analysts
FAIR VALUE
Financial Strength

Financial Score

87/100

Executive Summary

TSM’s standout strength is its exceptional profitability and cash generation, underpinned by best-in-class semiconductor foundry margins and sustained top-line expansion. Revenue rose from TWD 1.59tn in FY2021 to TWD 3.81tn in FY2025, with TTM revenue and earnings both exceeding the latest full-year results, while gross margin near 60% and operating margin above 50% signal durable pricing power and scale. This strength is reinforced by a very robust balance sheet, including TWD 3.13tn of cash and short-term investments, conservative leverage, and steadily growing equity. Cash flow is also excellent, with strong operating cash flow and solid free cash flow despite heavy capex, reflecting ongoing growth investment. The main tensions are capital intensity, cyclicality, and customer concentration, but overall TSM presents an unusually strong financial profile, consistent with its high ratings across profitability, liquidity, and growth.

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Last Updated
Jun 14, 2026
Short Term
Neutral1–4 weeks
Medium Term
Bullish1–6 months
Long Term
Bullish6m+
Price Outlook
$423.93Price at Analysis

The path of least resistance is modestly higher, with a likely grind toward the $426.41 to $428.73 resistance band if short-term momentum stabilizes. The main downside risk is a loss of $418.98, which would put the $416.68 and $411.76/$411.35 support cluster back into play as the next area to absorb selling pressure.

Technical Overview

TSM’s technical picture is constructive but not fully aligned across timeframes. The short-term setup is mixed, with price holding above the 20-day average but MACD still negative and volume uninspiring, which argues for consolidation rather than immediate acceleration. By contrast, the medium- and long-term structures remain healthy: price is above the 50-day and 200-day averages, the stock remains in Golden Cross territory, and the 52-week range position is firmly in the upper third. The key areas to watch are $418.98–$416.68 on the downside and $426.41–$428.73 on the upside, with $411.35/$411.76 acting as an important support confluence.

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Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.