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TSM$410.12

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.

Last Updated
Aug 14, 202614 days ago
Moat & Trend
Management
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Competitive Radar

Moat Score

85/100

Executive Summary

TSMC has one of the clearest structural advantages in global industry. It dominates advanced logic foundry manufacturing, serves the most demanding customers in the world, and repeatedly proves it can move new process nodes into high-volume production before rivals. That lead is reinforced by years of accumulated process know-how, deep integration with fabless customers, and a scale position that compounds learning and utilization advantages. Switching away is technically possible but operationally risky, especially at the leading edge. The main weakness is not competitive but geopolitical: concentration in Taiwan, rising overseas capex, and exposure to export controls and supply-chain shocks. Even so, the underlying moat remains unusually durable, and AI-driven demand is likely to reinforce TSMC’s central role rather than commoditize it.

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Last Updated
Aug 25, 20263 days ago
Target Price
Analyst Consensus
FAIR VALUE
Financial Strength

Financial Score

86/100

Executive Summary

TSM stands out for exceptional profitability backed by elite scale, with revenue and earnings expanding sharply in FY2024–FY2025 and operating margin reaching 50.8%, underscoring strong operating leverage. This performance is supported by a very resilient balance sheet: liquidity is abundant, debt is modest relative to equity, and cash and short-term investments continue to rise alongside steady equity growth. Cash generation is equally robust, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both increasing despite heavy, ongoing capex; the main constraint is the sustained reinvestment burden, though it remains comfortably covered. Growth is still strong, but the pace has normalized in TTM, and elevated other income plus a higher normalized tax rate introduce some period-to-period noise. Overall, TSM presents a high-quality financial profile with only moderate cyclical and execution watchpoints, consistent with its top-tier ratings across the core analysis areas.

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Last Updated
Aug 15, 2026
Short Term
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Medium Term
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Price Outlook
$426.35Price at Analysis

The path of least resistance remains higher, with the most likely next move a push toward the $428.55 to $431.49 resistance zone as momentum stays positive. If that area fails to break, the key downside risk is a fade back toward $425.58 and $424.6, with $421.4 serving as the next support to watch.

Technical Overview

TSM’s technical profile is broadly constructive across all three horizons, with the short term supported by bullish momentum and the medium and long term anchored by price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. RSI remains elevated but not excessive, MACD is positive, and the stock is still residing in the upper third of its 52-week range, which keeps the primary trend pointed higher. The one notable softness is fading volume, suggesting the move may need fresh participation to extend cleanly. Near term, the most relevant levels are the tight cluster around $424.6 to $428.55, while the weekly zone around $425.58 and $431.49 defines the next important medium-term battleground. On a broader basis, $451.75 and $474.36 mark the major long-term resistance area to monitor.

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Frequently asked questions about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.

Does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) have an economic moat?
MoatScan AI rates Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) 85/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. TSMC has one of the clearest structural advantages in global industry.Sign in free to see the Moat Type verdict and the pillar-by-pillar reasoning.
What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.'s moat score?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) has a moat score of 85/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.Sign in free to see each pillar rating, the Moat Type verdict and the moat trend.
Is TSM stock overvalued or undervalued?
MoatScan AI answers this by estimating TSM's intrinsic value with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, then comparing that estimate to the current market price. A share price meaningfully below the estimate is flagged undervalued; meaningfully above it, overvalued. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis.Sign in free to see the fair value estimate, the implied upside or downside, and the verdict.
What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.'s fair value estimate?
MoatScan AI derives Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.'s (TSM) fair value per share from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.Sign in free to see the estimate and the full assumptions behind it.
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Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.