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ULTA$515.04

Ulta Beauty, Inc.

Last Updated
May 23, 20264 months ago
Moat & Trend
Management
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Competitive Radar

Moat Score

46/100

Executive Summary

Ulta Beauty has built a respectable specialty-beauty franchise, anchored by a broad assortment, a large store base, and a loyalty program that encourages repeat visits. Its strongest advantages come from brand recognition, merchandising scale, and a convenient “all-in-one” shopping format rather than from true structural lock-in. Customers can still multi-home across Sephora, Amazon, department stores, and direct-to-consumer brands with relatively little friction, which limits durability. The moat is therefore real but not deep. The score is low relative to the Narrow Moat label because Ulta’s advantages are concentrated in execution and category position, not in hard-to-replicate economics. Competitive pressure and the ending Target partnership point to a weakening trend.

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Last Updated
May 23, 20264 months ago
Target Price
Analyst Consensus
FAIR VALUE
Financial Strength

Financial Score

71/100

Executive Summary

Ulta Beauty’s most notable strength is its durable cash generation, which has supported positive free cash flow, meaningful buybacks, and steady balance-sheet expansion. Revenue and net income have grown strongly over five years, but momentum has slowed, with operating margins compressing as SG&A rose faster than sales and earnings declining for two straight years. The balance sheet remains healthy overall, yet liquidity has tightened, cash has fallen, inventory has risen, and debt is higher than prior periods. Cash flow quality is solid but somewhat lumpy, while ratios show softer efficiency and returns. With growth expected to re-accelerate, Ulta’s profile remains fundamentally sound, though the ratings point to a high-quality retailer facing moderating profitability and tighter financial flexibility.

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Frequently asked questions about Ulta Beauty, Inc.

Does Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) have an economic moat?
MoatScan AI rates Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) 46/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. Ulta Beauty has built a respectable specialty-beauty franchise, anchored by a broad assortment, a large store base, and a loyalty program that encourages repeat visits.Sign in free to see the Moat Type verdict and the pillar-by-pillar reasoning.
What is Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s moat score?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) has a moat score of 46/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.Sign in free to see each pillar rating, the Moat Type verdict and the moat trend.
Is ULTA stock overvalued or undervalued?
MoatScan AI answers this by estimating ULTA's intrinsic value with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, then comparing that estimate to the current market price. A share price meaningfully below the estimate is flagged undervalued; meaningfully above it, overvalued. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis.Sign in free to see the fair value estimate, the implied upside or downside, and the verdict.
What is Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s fair value estimate?
MoatScan AI derives Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s (ULTA) fair value per share from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.Sign in free to see the estimate and the full assumptions behind it.

Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.