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UPS$98.87

United Parcel Service, Inc.

Last Updated
May 21, 2026about 2 months ago
Moat & Trend
Management
Competent
Competitive Radar

Moat Score

63/100

Executive Summary

UPS owns one of the world’s most valuable logistics networks, built on dense routes, aircraft, hubs, and customer relationships that support dependable time-definite delivery. Its scale, brand, and operational complexity create real barriers to entry, especially in domestic parcel and international express shipping. However, the moat is narrower than a pure network business because customers can multi-home, price competition is persistent, and major shippers increasingly use multiple carriers or internalize volume. Amazon Logistics, USPS pricing dynamics, and labor costs are pressuring economics. UPS remains a high-quality franchise, but its long-term advantage looks durable rather than impregnable, and recent trends suggest gradual erosion at the margin.

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Last Updated
May 21, 2026about 2 months ago
Target Price
Analyst Consensus
Buy28 analysts
FAIR VALUE
Financial Strength

Financial Score

58/100

Executive Summary

UPS’s most notable strength is its still-solid cash generation, with operating cash flow and free cash flow remaining positive despite a clear slowdown from earlier peaks. However, the business has lost momentum since FY2022: revenue and net income have declined, operating margins have compressed, and asset efficiency has softened, while profitability and returns remain respectable but lower than prior levels. The balance sheet is adequate, yet leverage has risen, equity has eroded, and debt has increased, tempering resilience. Cash flow is also under pressure as dividends now exceed free cash flow. While consensus forecasts point to a modest recovery, UPS currently presents a mixed but manageable financial profile, consistent with mid-range ratings across the core analysis areas.

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Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.