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JCI$146.11

Johnson Controls International plc

Last Updated
Jul 1, 2026about 2 months ago
Moat & Trend
Management
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Competitive Radar

Moat Score

52/100

Executive Summary

Johnson Controls has a real but limited economic moat built around its installed base of building automation, fire, security, and HVAC systems. The strongest elements are switching costs and brand credibility in mission-critical commercial infrastructure, where retrofits and service transitions can be disruptive. However, the company does not enjoy meaningful network effects, and its cost position is helped by scale rather than protected by a unique structural advantage. Competition remains intense from large incumbents and regional specialists, which caps pricing power. The moat profile is improving modestly as data-center cooling, software-enabled controls, and service content gain importance, but the business still looks more like a durable niche leader than a truly wide-moat compounder.

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Last Updated
Jul 1, 2026about 2 months ago
Target Price
Analyst Consensus
FAIR VALUE
Financial Strength

Financial Score

62/100

Executive Summary

Johnson Controls’ most notable strength is its solid operating profitability and improving efficiency, with strong ROE, rising asset turnover, and a revenue recovery that analysts expect to continue at mid-to-high single-digit rates. Income statement results are constructive, but core earnings quality is less clean because FY2025 net income and EPS were boosted by discontinued operations and other non-core items. Cash generation remains positive, yet free cash flow has softened and capital returns have exceeded internally generated cash. The main tension is the balance sheet: liquidity is thin, equity has declined, and large goodwill and intangibles leave tangible book value deeply negative despite manageable leverage metrics. Overall, JCI presents a moderately attractive but not pristine profile, combining decent growth and profitability with meaningful balance sheet and cash flow quality risks, consistent with its mid-range ratings.

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Frequently asked questions about Johnson Controls International plc

Does Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) have an economic moat?
Yes, though a limited one. Johnson Controls International plc earns a Narrow Moat rating with a moat score of 52/100, indicating competitive advantages expected to persist for roughly 10–20 years. Johnson Controls has a real but limited economic moat built around its installed base of building automation, fire, security, and HVAC systems.
What is Johnson Controls International plc's moat score?
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) has a moat score of 52/100 with a Narrow Moat rating and a positive moat trend. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. Its strongest pillar is switching costs (7/10).
Is JCI stock overvalued or undervalued?
As of MoatScan's latest valuation, JCI appears overvalued. The AI-estimated fair value is $115.83 versus a market price of $146.11 at the time of analysis, implying the stock traded about 21% above fair value. The estimate is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and updates with each new financial analysis.
What is Johnson Controls International plc's fair value estimate?
MoatScan estimates Johnson Controls International plc's (JCI) fair value at $115.83 per share, derived from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. See the Financial Analysis tab for the full assumptions behind the estimate.

Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.