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JCI$146.11

Johnson Controls International plc

Last Updated
Jul 1, 20263 months ago
Moat & Trend
Management
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Competitive Radar

Moat Score

52/100

Executive Summary

Johnson Controls has a real but limited economic moat built around its installed base of building automation, fire, security, and HVAC systems. The strongest elements are switching costs and brand credibility in mission-critical commercial infrastructure, where retrofits and service transitions can be disruptive. However, the company does not enjoy meaningful network effects, and its cost position is helped by scale rather than protected by a unique structural advantage. Competition remains intense from large incumbents and regional specialists, which caps pricing power. The moat profile is improving modestly as data-center cooling, software-enabled controls, and service content gain importance, but the business still looks more like a durable niche leader than a truly wide-moat compounder.

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Last Updated
Jul 1, 20263 months ago
Target Price
Analyst Consensus
FAIR VALUE
Financial Strength

Financial Score

62/100

Executive Summary

Johnson Controls’ most notable strength is its solid operating profitability and improving efficiency, with strong ROE, rising asset turnover, and a revenue recovery that analysts expect to continue at mid-to-high single-digit rates. Income statement results are constructive, but core earnings quality is less clean because FY2025 net income and EPS were boosted by discontinued operations and other non-core items. Cash generation remains positive, yet free cash flow has softened and capital returns have exceeded internally generated cash. The main tension is the balance sheet: liquidity is thin, equity has declined, and large goodwill and intangibles leave tangible book value deeply negative despite manageable leverage metrics. Overall, JCI presents a moderately attractive but not pristine profile, combining decent growth and profitability with meaningful balance sheet and cash flow quality risks, consistent with its mid-range ratings.

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Frequently asked questions about Johnson Controls International plc

Does Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) have an economic moat?
MoatScan AI rates Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) 52/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. Johnson Controls has a real but limited economic moat built around its installed base of building automation, fire, security, and HVAC systems.Sign in free to see the Moat Type verdict and the pillar-by-pillar reasoning.
What is Johnson Controls International plc's moat score?
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) has a moat score of 52/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.Sign in free to see each pillar rating, the Moat Type verdict and the moat trend.
Is JCI stock overvalued or undervalued?
MoatScan AI answers this by estimating JCI's intrinsic value with a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, then comparing that estimate to the current market price. A share price meaningfully below the estimate is flagged undervalued; meaningfully above it, overvalued. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis.Sign in free to see the fair value estimate, the implied upside or downside, and the verdict.
What is Johnson Controls International plc's fair value estimate?
MoatScan AI derives Johnson Controls International plc's (JCI) fair value per share from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.Sign in free to see the estimate and the full assumptions behind it.

Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.