Does Aptiv PLC (APTV) have an economic moat?

Yes, though a limited one. Aptiv PLC earns a Narrow Moat rating with a moat score of 39/100, indicating competitive advantages expected to persist for roughly 10–20 years. Aptiv has a real but limited moat built on deep OEM integration, validation-heavy switching costs, and engineering credibility in electrical architecture and software-defined vehicles.

What is Aptiv PLC's moat score?

Aptiv PLC (APTV) has a moat score of 39/100 with a Narrow Moat rating and a negative moat trend. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. Its strongest pillar is switching costs (5.5/10).

Is APTV stock overvalued or undervalued?

As of MoatScan's latest valuation, APTV appears undervalued. The AI-estimated fair value is $203.34 versus a market price of $68.05 at the time of analysis, implying roughly 199% upside to fair value. The estimate is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and updates with each new financial analysis.

What is Aptiv PLC's fair value estimate?

MoatScan estimates Aptiv PLC's (APTV) fair value at $203.34 per share, derived from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. See the Financial Analysis tab for the full assumptions behind the estimate.

Back to Database

APTV$68.05

Aptiv PLC

Last Updated

Jun 14, 2026about 2 months ago

Moat & Trend

Management

AI Impact

Competitive Radar

Moat Score

39/100

Executive Summary

Aptiv has a real but limited moat built on deep OEM integration, validation-heavy switching costs, and engineering credibility in electrical architecture and software-defined vehicles. Its global manufacturing footprint and presence in many top-selling models support incumbency, but the company lacks strong network effects, legally protected IP, or a durable cost structure that would insulate margins across cycles. Automotive suppliers face intense bidding, frequent rebids, and price-down pressure, and Aptiv remains exposed to cyclicality and platform mix shifts. The moat is therefore narrow rather than wide, and the trend is negative as competition in wiring, electronics, and ADAS intensifies while the industry migrates to more standardized architectures.

Network Effects

Limited Ecosystem Reinforcement

Pillar Strength

2/10

Aptiv operates in a B2B automotive supply chain with little direct network effect. There is some ecosystem reinforcement when its software, harnesses, connectors, and domain architecture are adopted across multiple OEM platforms, because common tooling and engineering support make it easier to win adjacent programs. However, each OEM program is negotiated separately, and customer value does not meaningfully increase as more automakers or drivers use the products. Suppliers and OEMs can multi-home across rivals. The closest thing to network strength is the expanding installed base of software-defined vehicle platforms, but that is still relationship-led, not a true self-reinforcing network. This pillar is weak and largely incidental rather than a durable moat source.

Switching Costs

Program-Level Lock-In

Pillar Strength

5.5/10

Aptiv has moderate switching costs due to validation. Once an OEM designs Aptiv wiring architectures, harnesses, connectors, or edge software into a vehicle platform, changing suppliers requires re-engineering, qualification, safety testing, and manufacturing retooling that can take a model cycle or longer. These costs are meaningful because automotive programs are highly reliability-sensitive and the cost of failure is high. Still, switching is not prohibitive: OEMs routinely dual-source, rebid programs, and pressure suppliers on price at every platform refresh. Aptiv benefits most where it supplies integrated electrical architecture, ADAS subsystems, and software that sit deep in vehicle electronics. The lock-in is real but program-specific rather than enterprise-wide, so durability is limited.

Intangible Assets

Engineering Credibility Matters

Pillar Strength

5.5/10

Aptiv’s main intangibles are engineering know-how, OEM trust, and its portfolio of validated vehicle architecture and software capabilities. The company also owns brands such as Aptiv, Wind River, and the legacy Delphi technical reputation in automotive electronics. These assets matter because automakers prefer suppliers with proven safety, quality, and integration records, especially in high-voltage, ADAS, and software-defined vehicle applications. However, the advantages are not protected by a fortress of patents or exclusive licenses, and many capabilities are execution-based rather than legally exclusive. Competitors with scale and engineering talent can replicate much of the offering over time. The result is a modest but meaningful intangible advantage, not a dominant one, and pricing power remains limited.

Cost Advantages

Scale Helps, Not Dominant

Pillar Strength

3.5/10

Aptiv has some cost advantages from global manufacturing scale, sourcing leverage, and long-standing process expertise in high-volume wiring, connectors, and electrical systems. Its footprint across many countries helps it place labor-intensive production near OEM assembly plants and manage logistics in a just-in-time industry. That said, automotive suppliers face relentless price-down demands, and Aptiv does not appear to enjoy an unassailable structural cost gap. Rivals in Mexico, Eastern Europe, and Asia can often match labor-intensive components, while large peers can spread fixed engineering costs across multiple programs. The company’s software and advanced electronics businesses may have better margins, but those areas do not yet create a broad cost moat across the enterprise. Any edge is partial and constantly contested.

Efficient Scale

Selective Niche Scarcity

Pillar Strength

3/10

Aptiv operates in a large but competitive automotive supply market that is fragmented across many tiers and product lines. Some niches, such as high-complexity electrical architecture, domain controllers, and integrated ADAS components, can support only a limited number of credible suppliers because OEMs demand global support, quality, and scale. Even so, this is not a natural monopoly or a stable duopoly. The industry regularly sees bidding, program wins, and share shifts as vehicle platforms change. Aptiv’s size helps, but new entrants with niche technology or existing industrial scale can still compete, and incumbents do not enjoy the kind of protected scarcity seen in regulated utilities or network monopolies. Efficient scale is therefore limited and localized rather than broad-based.

Management Quality Assessment

Evaluating leadership track record, capital allocation, and governance

Verdict

Competent

Kevin Clark has led Aptiv since the 2017 spin-off, and his record is mixed but generally competent. Management sharpened the portfolio toward electrical architecture, software and ADAS through divestitures, acquisitions and the Wind River deal, which improved strategic focus, but the large Motional autonomy bet has yet to prove durable value creation. Aptiv is not founder-led; it is run by hired executives, so alignment depends more on incentives than ownership, and I could not verify a clear insider-ownership trend from the supplied material. CEO pay appears broadly in the multi-million-dollar range and not obviously scandalous, though recent shareholder returns have not clearly matched compensation. No major governance red flags are evident.

Key Highlights

Kevin Clark has led Aptiv since the 2017 spin-off, and the company is now more focused on electrical architecture, software and ADAS than the legacy Delphi mix.
Capital allocation has been strategic: Aptiv bought Wind River in 2022, NuTonomy in 2017 and helped form Motional with Hyundai in 2019, but the autonomy payoff remains uncertain.
Aptiv redomiciled from the UK to Ireland in 2018 and to Switzerland in 2025 for tax purposes, showing active tax and capital management rather than passive stewardship.
I could not verify a meaningful insider-ownership trend from the supplied material; Aptiv is not founder-led, so alignment depends more on compensation design and board oversight.
No major current governance red flags stand out in the available record; the severe accounting and bankruptcy issues were part of the legacy Delphi era rather than the current Aptiv structure.

AI Impact Assessment

Evaluating how AI strengthens or disrupts existing moat pillars

AI Opportunity

6/ 10

AI Threat

5/ 10

Net AI Impact

+1Neutral

Net Neutral. AI mainly reinforces Aptiv’s existing moat pillars—engineering scale, vehicle electrical/electronic architecture, and OEM integration—by speeding product development, improving verification, and enhancing ADAS/edge-compute performance. Those are real capabilities: Aptiv has described proprietary generative-AI tools, supply-chain analytics, and an intelligent-edge platform, plus partnerships with NVIDIA and Wind River. The inference, not the fact, is that this creates durable differentiation; much of the value still depends on execution, safety validation, and customer design wins rather than a proprietary AI dataset others cannot match. Near term, AI also lowers barriers in automotive software and may encourage OEM in-sourcing, so the threat is meaningful but not yet structural. The key uncertainty is whether Aptiv can monetize AI as recurring software content, or only as a better Tier-1 toolset.

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Last Updated

Jun 14, 2026about 2 months ago

Target Price

Analyst Consensus

FAIR VALUE

Financial Strength

Financial Score

62/100

Executive Summary

Aptiv’s most notable strength is its still-solid liquidity and ability to generate positive free cash flow despite a cyclical operating backdrop. Revenue expanded from FY2021 to FY2025 and gross margins improved, but operating margin compressed and earnings quality was distorted by one-off tax and non-operating gains, indicating weaker underlying profitability. The balance sheet remains functional, with current assets comfortably covering current liabilities, yet leverage has risen and goodwill/intangibles limit asset quality. Cash flow has stayed positive, though working-capital swings and softer TTM generation add volatility. Overall, Aptiv presents a middling but resilient profile: adequate near-term coverage, moderate growth, and acceptable cash production, offset by margin pressure, higher leverage, and uneven return metrics, consistent with its mid-range ratings.

Income Statement

Revenue · Margins · Profitability

Section Score

5.5/10

Aptiv shows moderate top-line growth over the multi-year period, with revenue rising from $15.6B in FY2021 to $20.4B in FY2025, though momentum slowed after FY2023 and TTM growth of 5.2% is only slightly ahead of FY2025. Profitability quality has weakened: gross margin improved steadily to about 19%, but operating margin fell sharply to 5.8% in FY2025 and 5.4% TTM as operating expenses jumped. Net income has been highly volatile, distorted by a large tax benefit in FY2023 and a big non-operating gain in FY2024, which makes underlying earnings less durable. Assuming a cyclical auto-parts supplier, margins are acceptable but not strong. Key risks are expense inflation, margin compression, and earnings sensitivity to one-offs.

Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified

Metric	TTM	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023	FY 2022	FY 2021
Period Ending	Mar 31, 2026	Dec 31, 2025	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2021
Revenue	20,659	20,398	19,713	20,051	17,489	15,618
Revenue Growth (YoY)	5.20%	3.48%	-1.69%	14.65%	11.98%	19.53%
Net Income	383	181	1,810	2,966	590	609
Net Income Attributable to Preferred Dividends	—	—	—	29	63	63
Net Income Growth	-76.57%	-90.77%	-39.18%	394.61%	0.68%	-67.30%
Profit Margin	1.85%	0.89%	9.18%	14.79%	3.37%	3.90%

Data as of Mar 31, 2026

Balance Sheet

Assets · Liabilities · Equity

Section Score

6.5/10

Aptiv’s balance sheet shows adequate but not especially conservative liquidity. Total current assets rose to $10.7B TTM from $8.7B in FY2024, while current liabilities were relatively stable at $5.1B, implying solid near-term coverage and a current-asset buffer above 2x TTM. Solvency is more mixed: total liabilities increased to $15.7B TTM versus $23.4B in assets, and total debt climbed to $9.7B, leaving net debt at $6.6B. Equity remains intact at $9.5B, but it is below the FY2023 peak of $11.8B and has shown some volatility. The asset base also includes meaningful goodwill and intangibles, which modestly reduces tangible quality and raises balance-sheet sensitivity.

Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified

Metric	TTM	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023	FY 2022	FY 2021
Period Ending	Mar 31, 2026	Dec 31, 2025	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2021
Total Current Assets	10,720	8,745	7,826	8,247	7,784	8,436
Total Assets	25,203	23,413	23,458	24,427	21,884	18,007
Total Current Liabilities	5,069	5,037	5,131	4,808	4,865	4,207
Total Liabilities	15,681	13,914	14,373	12,583	12,790	9,446

Data as of Mar 31, 2026

Cash Flow Statement

Operations · Investing · Financing

Section Score

6.5/10

Aptiv shows decent but uneven cash generation. Operating cash flow improved from $1.2 billion in FY2021 to a peak of $2.4 billion in FY2024, then eased to $2.2 billion in FY2025 and $1.8 billion TTM, so momentum has softened. Free cash flow stayed positive throughout and remained strong at $1.5 billion in FY2025, supported by disciplined but ongoing capital spending of $656 million, though TTM FCF fell to $1.1 billion. Working capital swings are material, especially inventories and receivables, which adds volatility. Capital allocation looks mixed: aggressive buybacks and large debt moves were funded partly through financing, while the 2022 acquisition outflow was very large. Overall, cash quality is acceptable, not exceptional.

Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified

Metric	TTM	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023	FY 2022	FY 2021
Period Ending	Mar 31, 2026	Dec 31, 2025	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2021
Operating Cash Flow	1,769	2,185	2,446	1,896	1,263	1,222
Operating Cash Flow Growth	-28.52%	-10.67%	29.01%	50.12%	3.36%	-13.52%
Free Cash Flow	1,091	1,529	1,616	990	419	611
Free Cash Flow Growth	-28.65%	-5.38%	63.23%	136.28%	-31.42%	-26.30%

Data as of Mar 31, 2026

Key Ratios

Liquidity · Leverage · Efficiency · Returns

Section Score

5.5/10

Aptiv shows improving short-term liquidity, with the current ratio rising to 2.11 and the quick ratio to 1.38 from weaker levels in prior years, suggesting more comfortable coverage of near-term obligations. Leverage has moved the other way: debt-to-equity has climbed to 1.02, while debt-to-EBITDA and net debt-to-EBITDA are both higher than in earlier periods, indicating a heavier balance-sheet burden. Efficiency is broadly stable, as asset turnover has held near the mid-0.8s, but inventory turnover has softened over time. Profitability and returns have weakened notably from the 2023 peak, with ROE, ROA, ROIC, and ROCE all materially lower in the latest periods, pointing to a less robust return profile overall.

Ratios are dimensionless unless otherwise noted

Metric	Current	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023	FY 2022	FY 2021
Period Ending	Jun 12, 2026	Dec 31, 2025	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2021
Debt / Equity Ratio	1.02	0.84	0.96	0.56	0.75	0.51
Quick Ratio	1.38	1.06	0.94	1.08	1.02	1.41
Current Ratio	2.11	1.74	1.53	1.72	1.6	2.01
ROEReturn on Equity (ROE)	4.03%	1.95%	17.30%	28.33%	6.68%	7.31%
ROAReturn on Assets (ROA)	2.29%	1.20%	6.90%	16.44%	5.56%	5.95%
ROICReturn on Invested Capital (ROIC)	3.30%	1.67%	9.37%	22.72%	8.47%	9.87%
ROCEReturn on Capital Employed (ROCE)	5.79%	6.45%	9.71%	8.51%	8.20%	8.72%

Data as of Jun 12, 2026

Growth

Revenue · EPS · Valuation · Estimates

Section Score

7/10

Historical performance runs from FY2021 through FY2025, while FY2026 and FY2027 are analyst-covered forecast years with forward P/E data. Revenue grew strongly from 2021 to 2023, softened in 2024, and recovered modestly in 2025 before a sharp estimated drop in 2026 and another decline in 2027, suggesting a cyclical or demand-related reset rather than steady expansion. EPS is only available from 2025 onward: it rises sharply in 2025, falls in 2026, then rebounds in 2027, showing volatility but some earnings resilience. Forward P/E compresses from 11.06 to 9.98, which looks reasonable given the mixed growth outlook. Analyst sentiment is constructive, with a Strong Buy consensus from 21 analysts and a recent shift toward more Strong Buy ratings and fewer Holds.

Analyst Price Targets

Low$65-4.48%

Median$80+17.56%

Average$78.21+14.93%

High$94+38.13%

Strong BuyConsensus rating based on analyst coverage

21 analysts

Recommendation Trends

Rating	Jun '26	May '26	Apr '26	Mar '26	Feb '26	Jan '26
Strong Buy	13	13	13	12	9	9
Buy	7	7	6	6	6	6
Hold	1	1	3	3	5	5
Sell	0	0	0	0	0	0
Strong Sell	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	21	21	22	21	20	20

Financial Forecast

Metric	FY 2027	FY 2026	FY 2025	FY 2024	FY 2023	FY 2022	FY 2021
Revenue	13.60B	14.48B	20.40B	19.71B	20.05B	17.49B	15.62B
Revenue Growth	-6.08%	-29.02%	+3.48%	-1.69%	+14.65%	+11.98%	+19.53%
EPS	6.82	6.15	7.82	—	—	—	—
EPS Growth	+10.89%	-21.32%	+24.92%	—	—	—	—
Forward P/E	10.0x	11.1x	—	—	—	—	—

Revenue in USD · EPS per share · Price targets in USD

Data as of FY 2025 · Italic columns are analyst estimates

Fair Value Estimation

DCF · +198.8% Margin of Safety · Undervalued

AI Fair Value Estimate (DCF)

$203.34vs$68.05

Margin of Safety+198.8%

Undervalued — Margin of safety detected

A discounted cash flow framework is appropriate for Aptiv because the business is fundamentally cash-generative and its operating performance can be projected through a multi-year cycle of revenue growth, margin evolution, and capital intensity. The forecast cash-flow path suggests a business that expands steadily while preserving disciplined capex, with free cash flow rising faster than revenue as margins hold and growth gradually fades toward a mature terminal profile.

AI Valuation Verdict

DCF is the right lens for Aptiv because its value is driven by long-run cash generation rather than near-term earnings volatility. Using a 6.2% discount rate and 3% terminal growth, the model assumes revenue growth moderates to a 2.85% 10-year CAGR, EBITDA margins average 16.17%, and capex stays disciplined at 4.14% of revenue. On those inputs, fair value is $203.34 per share versus a current price of $68.05, implying a 198.81% margin of safety and an Undervalued verdict. The main swing factors are WACC, terminal growth, and whether margin durability holds. Better-than-expected margin expansion or growth would support further upside; weaker execution or a higher discount rate would narrow it.

DCF Assumptions

WACC

6.2%

Weighted avg cost of capital

Revenue Growth (10Y)

2.9%

CAGR assumption

EBITDA Margin

16.2%

Steady-state projection

CapEx / Revenue

4.1%

Capital investment

Terminal Growth

3.0%

Long-run growth rate

Projection Period

10 yrs

Explicit forecast horizon

Projected Cash Flows

Values in millions USD

Year	Revenue	EBITDA	FCF	Discounted FCF
Yr 1	14,839	1,863	1,401	1,319
Yr 2	15,136	2,081	1,257	1,115
Yr 3	15,858	2,341	1,384	1,155
Yr 4	16,175	2,589	1,659	1,304
Yr 5	16,749	2,915	1,877	1,389
Yr 6	17,084	2,979	1,966	1,370
Yr 7	17,426	3,044	2,014	1,322
Yr 8	17,775	3,107	2,054	1,269
Yr 9	18,296	3,195	2,088	1,215
Yr 10	19,108	3,324	2,129	1,167
Terminal Value (PV)				37,551

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Last Updated

Jun 14, 2026

Short Term

Medium Term

Long Term

Price Outlook

$68.05Price at Analysis

The most probable near-term move is a modest rebound or consolidation above the $67.75–$68.46 zone, with $69.17 and then $71.29 acting as the first upside checkpoints. The key downside risk is a loss of $66.82, which would expose $64.09 and raise the odds of a deeper retest toward the monthly $62.60 pivot.

Technical Overview

APTV presents a mixed technical profile: the short-term trend is still constructive, but the intermediate and long-term pictures remain weighed down by the recent Death Cross and the stock’s position below the 200-day MA. Momentum indicators are not broken, yet the strong daily rebound risk is tempered by contracting volume and an RSI that is approaching overbought territory. The most important levels to watch are $67.75 and $66.82 on the downside, where near-term support begins to cluster, and $69.17 to $71.29 on the upside, where resistance will determine whether the bounce can extend into a broader recovery. The monthly $62.60 pivot remains the key structural reference.

Short Term

1 to 4 weeks

Bullish

APTV’s short-term setup remains constructive despite today’s sharp pullback: price is still above the 20-day MA, RSI is in a bullish zone at 65.1, and MACD remains positive above its signal line. The main caution is that volume is contracting and RSI is nearing overbought, which limits upside follow-through unless demand improves.

Key Indicators

Price vs 20-day MA+6.35% above

Price vs 50-day MA+11.80% above

RSI (14-day)65.1

RSI InterpretationApproaching overbought

MACD TrendBullish (above signal)

Bollinger PositionUpper half

Volume TrendContracting

Support

$67.75$67.33$66.60

Resistance

$69.17$69.61$70.32

The closest short-term level is support at $67.75, with the daily pivot at $68.46 and immediate resistance at $69.17 just overhead. In the 1–4 week window, a retest of $67.75 looks likely, while a break above $69.17 would open a move toward $69.61 and $70.32.

Medium Term

1 to 6 months

Bearish

The intermediate trend is pressured by the price sitting below the 200-day MA, the recent Death Cross, and the broader sideways-to-weaker range structure. While the stock is still above the 50-day MA, that support is not enough to offset the negative longer-window trend signal and the damage from trading well below the 200-day average.

Key Indicators

Price vs 50-day MA+11.80% above

Price vs 200-day MA-8.87% below

52-Week Range PositionMiddle third (44%)

Trend DirectionSideways

MA Cross SignalDeath Cross territory

Relative Volume0.46x avg

Support

$66.82$64.09$59.58

Resistance

$75.76$78.53$83.00

Weekly support at $66.82 sits just below the current price and lines up as the first meaningful buffer, while the 50-day MA nearby reinforces the $64.09 area as a deeper intermediate support zone. On the upside, $71.29 and $75.76 are the key weekly resistance markers, and both are plausible tests over 1–6 months if momentum stabilizes.

Long Term

6 months and beyond

Bearish

Longer term, APTV remains in a structurally challenged position because it trades materially below the 200-day MA and the recent Death Cross still defines the trend backdrop. The stock is also in the middle third of its 52-week range rather than near the highs, and elevated Bollinger Bandwidth suggests a volatile but not yet durable recovery regime.

Key Indicators

Price vs 200-day MA-8.87% below

52-Week High$88.93

52-Week Low$51.68

Distance from 52w High-23.5%

BB Bandwidth45.4%

MA CrossoverRecent Death Cross (55 days ago)

Support

$57.02$56.30$52.40

Resistance

$68.90$72.80$73.52

The monthly structure places $62.60 as the central long-term pivot, with deeper support at $57.02, $56.30, and $52.40 defining the broader floor. Over 6+ months, the market is more likely to oscillate between the $68.90–$72.80 resistance band and the $62.60 pivot than to sustainably challenge the $88.93 52-week high without a major trend reversal.

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Frequently asked questions about Aptiv PLC

Does Aptiv PLC (APTV) have an economic moat?: Yes, though a limited one. Aptiv PLC earns a Narrow Moat rating with a moat score of 39/100, indicating competitive advantages expected to persist for roughly 10–20 years. Aptiv has a real but limited moat built on deep OEM integration, validation-heavy switching costs, and engineering credibility in electrical architecture and software-defined vehicles.
What is Aptiv PLC's moat score?: Aptiv PLC (APTV) has a moat score of 39/100 with a Narrow Moat rating and a negative moat trend. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. Its strongest pillar is switching costs (5.5/10).
Is APTV stock overvalued or undervalued?: As of MoatScan's latest valuation, APTV appears undervalued. The AI-estimated fair value is $203.34 versus a market price of $68.05 at the time of analysis, implying roughly 199% upside to fair value. The estimate is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and updates with each new financial analysis.
What is Aptiv PLC's fair value estimate?: MoatScan estimates Aptiv PLC's (APTV) fair value at $203.34 per share, derived from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. See the Financial Analysis tab for the full assumptions behind the estimate.

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Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

APTV$68.05

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Frequently asked questions about Aptiv PLC

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