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F$14.06

Ford Motor Company

Last Updated
Jun 21, 2026about 2 months ago
Moat & Trend
Management
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Competitive Radar

Moat Score

39/100

Executive Summary

Ford has a real but limited competitive advantage anchored in one of the strongest brands in autos, a long-running dealer/service footprint, and scale in profitable truck and commercial segments. The F-Series franchise, Lincoln luxury halo, and Ford Pro fleet business provide pockets of resilience and some customer loyalty, but the core auto market remains intensely competitive and capital intensive. Switching costs are modest, network effects are weak, and cost advantages are not clearly superior to top global peers. The moat is narrower than the brand suggests because product cycles, incentives, and technology transitions can quickly erode margins. The trend is negative as EV investments, write-downs, and pricing pressure continue to weigh on durability.

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Last Updated
Jun 21, 2026about 2 months ago
Target Price
Analyst Consensus
FAIR VALUE
Financial Strength

Financial Score

50/100

Executive Summary

Ford’s strongest feature remains its ability to generate cash despite a challenging operating backdrop. Operating cash flow and free cash flow recovered meaningfully in FY2025 and stayed positive in TTM, supported by disciplined working capital management, even as capex rose. However, the income statement is under pressure: revenue growth has slowed sharply, gross and operating margins have compressed, and recent earnings remain volatile and negative. The balance sheet is sizeable but increasingly leveraged, with debt rising, liquidity ratios weakening, and equity eroding, which limits financial flexibility. Forecasts suggest only a modest revenue rebound and a stronger earnings recovery, but that improvement is not yet evident in current results. Overall, F presents a mixed profile: respectable cash generation offsets weak profitability and a stretched balance sheet, aligning with its mid-range ratings.

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Last Updated
Jun 21, 2026
Short Term
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Medium Term
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Long Term
Price Outlook
$14.06Price at Analysis

The path of least resistance over the next move is modestly higher, but likely capped near $14.13 to $14.28 unless momentum improves materially. The key downside risk is a failure to hold $13.98 and $13.81, which would expose $13.72 and $13.56 as the next support band.

Technical Overview

Ford’s technical picture is mixed but still better on the intermediate and long horizons than in the immediate term. The short-term chart is under pressure, with price below the 20-day average, a very weak RSI, and bearish MACD suggesting the recent move is more likely a reflex bounce than a confirmed reversal. In contrast, the stock remains above both the 50-day and 200-day averages, and the broader trend direction is still labeled uptrend, which keeps the medium- to long-term structure constructive. The most important levels to watch are $14.13 and $13.81 in the near term, with $13.98 and $14.28 defining the weekly battleground. On the upside, the $15.27 to $15.56 area is the next meaningful test.

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Frequently asked questions about Ford Motor Company

Does Ford Motor Company (F) have an economic moat?
Yes, though a limited one. Ford Motor Company earns a Narrow Moat rating with a moat score of 39/100, indicating competitive advantages expected to persist for roughly 10–20 years. Ford has a real but limited competitive advantage anchored in one of the strongest brands in autos, a long-running dealer/service footprint, and scale in profitable truck and commercial segments.
What is Ford Motor Company's moat score?
Ford Motor Company (F) has a moat score of 39/100 with a Narrow Moat rating and a negative moat trend. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. Its strongest pillar is intangible assets (6/10).
Is F stock overvalued or undervalued?
As of MoatScan's latest valuation, F appears undervalued. The AI-estimated fair value is $27.20 versus a market price of $14.06 at the time of analysis, implying roughly 93% upside to fair value. The estimate is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and updates with each new financial analysis.
What is Ford Motor Company's fair value estimate?
MoatScan estimates Ford Motor Company's (F) fair value at $27.20 per share, derived from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. See the Financial Analysis tab for the full assumptions behind the estimate.
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Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.