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DG$102.90

Dollar General Corporation

Last Updated
Jun 5, 2026about 2 months ago
Moat & Trend
Management
Concerning
Competitive Radar

Moat Score

51/100

Executive Summary

Dollar General has a real but limited moat built on dense rural coverage, convenient locations, and scale purchasing in under-served trade areas. The model works best where customers value proximity over assortment, giving the chain localized pricing and logistics advantages. However, the business lacks meaningful network effects, has low switching costs, and faces persistent execution and reputation problems tied to shrink, labor, pricing, and safety. Its brand is well known but not premium, and competition from Walmart, Dollar Tree, Family Dollar, and grocers keeps pressure on margins. The moat is narrower than the score suggests because the advantages are concentrated in specific geographies rather than broadly defensible across retail.

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Last Updated
Jun 5, 2026about 2 months ago
Target Price
Analyst Consensus
Buy31 analysts
FAIR VALUE
Financial Strength

Financial Score

64/100

Executive Summary

Dollar General’s standout strength is its solid cash generation, which improved in FY2025 as operating cash flow and free cash flow rose while capital spending eased, supporting debt reduction and a steady dividend. Revenue has grown consistently, but profitability has been more uneven: gross margin is stable, yet operating margin and returns remain below earlier peaks due to SG&A pressure. The balance sheet is stable and modestly stronger, with cash, equity, and liquidity improving, though leverage and lease obligations remain material and the quick ratio stays thin. Forward growth appears moderate, with only limited margin expansion expected. Overall, DG presents a resilient, mid-tier profile: cash-rich and improving, but not without earnings and leverage constraints.

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Frequently asked questions about Dollar General Corporation

Does Dollar General Corporation (DG) have an economic moat?
Yes, though a limited one. Dollar General Corporation earns a Narrow Moat rating with a moat score of 51/100, indicating competitive advantages expected to persist for roughly 10–20 years. Dollar General has a real but limited moat built on dense rural coverage, convenient locations, and scale purchasing in under-served trade areas.
What is Dollar General Corporation's moat score?
Dollar General Corporation (DG) has a moat score of 51/100 with a Narrow Moat rating and a negative moat trend. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. Its strongest pillar is efficient scale (7.5/10).
Is DG stock overvalued or undervalued?
As of MoatScan's latest valuation, DG appears undervalued. The AI-estimated fair value is $176.68 versus a market price of $102.90 at the time of analysis, implying roughly 72% upside to fair value. The estimate is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and updates with each new financial analysis.
What is Dollar General Corporation's fair value estimate?
MoatScan estimates Dollar General Corporation's (DG) fair value at $176.68 per share, derived from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. See the Financial Analysis tab for the full assumptions behind the estimate.
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Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.