Does The Progressive Corporation (PGR) have an economic moat?

MoatScan AI rates The Progressive Corporation (PGR) 67/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. Progressive has built one of the stronger positions in U.S.

What is The Progressive Corporation's moat score?

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) has a moat score of 67/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.

Is PGR stock overvalued or undervalued?

MoatScan AI answers this by estimating PGR's intrinsic value with a dividend discount model (DDM) model, then comparing that estimate to the current market price. A share price meaningfully below the estimate is flagged undervalued; meaningfully above it, overvalued. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis.

What is The Progressive Corporation's fair value estimate?

MoatScan AI derives The Progressive Corporation's (PGR) fair value per share from a dividend discount model (DDM) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.

Back to Database

PGR$212.76

The Progressive Corporation

Last Updated

Jun 29, 20263 months ago

Moat & Trend

Management

AI Impact

Competitive Radar

Moat Score

67/100

Executive Summary

Progressive has built one of the stronger positions in U.S. auto insurance, supported by a large direct and agency distribution footprint, a well-known brand, and long experience in pricing risk with granular data. Its advantages are real, especially in usage-based insurance, claims handling, and marketing efficiency, but the business still competes in a highly competitive, regulated, and relatively price-transparent market. Customers can shop and switch with limited friction, which keeps structural protection from becoming “wide.” Still, Progressive’s scale, data depth, and underwriting discipline create a durable edge that should persist over time. The moat trend appears positive as the company continues to gain share and refine its analytics-driven model.

Network Effects

Data Flywheel, Not True Network

Pillar Strength

6/10

Progressive benefits from a limited but real data-network effect rather than a classic customer network. As the company writes more policies, it accumulates more claims, driving, and pricing information, which can improve underwriting accuracy and product design. That creates a reinforcement loop: better pricing attracts more customers, which in turn generates more data. However, customers do not gain much direct value from other customers being on the platform, and insurance shopping remains highly multi-homed across carriers and agents. Competitors can assemble similar data sets over time, especially large incumbents. The effect is meaningful, but it is indirect, proprietary, and weaker than the self-reinforcing networks seen in platform businesses.

Switching Costs

Moderate Renewal Friction

Pillar Strength

7/10

Switching costs in auto insurance are moderate rather than high. Customers can comparison-shop relatively easily, but they still face enough friction to create retention value for Progressive. Policyholders must re-underwrite, update payment methods, verify coverage details, and sometimes adjust bundled products or agent relationships. Usage-based programs like Snapshot can add behavioral stickiness by embedding the customer in a data-sharing relationship, although participation is voluntary and cancellable. Claims experience also matters: a smooth, trusted claims process can discourage switching after renewal. Still, pricing is the primary driver, and many households re-quote each term. That makes retention more about operational excellence and brand confidence than structural lock-in. Switching barriers exist, but they are not decisive.

Intangible Assets

Brand and Pricing Know-How

Pillar Strength

8/10

Progressive has strong intangible assets built around brand recognition, underwriting expertise, and product innovation. The Flo advertising platform has made the company one of the most recognizable names in personal auto insurance, which helps with top-of-funnel acquisition and recall at renewal time. More importantly, Progressive has long invested in usage-based insurance and claims analytics, including patents and proprietary methods that are difficult to replicate quickly. The brand is not a luxury-style pricing shield, but it reduces customer acquisition costs and supports trust in a commodity-like category. The combination of nationally visible marketing and differentiated actuarial know-how gives Progressive a clearer intangible edge than most insurers. These assets are durable, though not impervious to competitive imitation.

Cost Advantages

Scale-Driven Expense Edge

Pillar Strength

7/10

Progressive appears to enjoy meaningful cost advantages, especially in distribution and pricing efficiency. Its direct channel, online quoting tools, and automation help lower acquisition and servicing costs relative to more labor-intensive peers. Scale also improves the economics of claims handling, data science, and ad spend, allowing the company to spread fixed technology and marketing costs across a large premium base. In auto insurance, better risk selection can function like a cost advantage because it reduces loss severity and the cost of mispricing. That said, this advantage is contested: large rivals can invest heavily in similar capabilities, and industry profitability can be cyclical. The edge is real, but it must be continuously earned through execution, not assumed to be permanent.

Efficient Scale

Large But Not Exclusive

Pillar Strength

5.5/10

Progressive operates at substantial scale, but the auto insurance market is not a natural monopoly or an especially tight oligopoly. The company is one of the largest U.S. auto insurers, which supports brand awareness, data depth, and distribution leverage, yet it still faces formidable rivals such as State Farm, GEICO, Allstate, and other large carriers. State-level regulation, fragmented distribution, and customer price-shopping keep entry and expansion possible for well-capitalized competitors. Efficient scale is therefore only modest: size helps, but it does not create a protected market structure where additional entrants are economically futile. Progressive’s scale is an advantage in execution and economics, not an unassailable barrier. The market remains competitive enough that share gains must be defended continuously.

Management Quality Assessment

Evaluating leadership track record, capital allocation, and governance

Verdict

Strong

Tricia Griffith, CEO since 2016, has run Progressive as a disciplined underwriting franchise rather than an acquisition-driven conglomerate. Under her tenure the company has kept gaining share in personal auto while investing in pricing analytics, Snapshot, and direct/agent distribution, which supports its competitive moat. Capital allocation has been conservative: limited M&A, emphasis on organic growth, and shareholder returns through buybacks when cash generation allows. Progressive is not founder-led today, so execution depends on a professional management team; that has worked well. Insider ownership trend is unclear from current public data. CEO pay appears large but broadly consistent with the company’s scale and strong operating performance. Historical claims controversies exist, but no major current governance red flags stand out.

Key Highlights

Tricia Griffith has served as CEO since 2016, and Progressive has continued to expand scale and market share during her tenure while preserving underwriting discipline.
Management has emphasized organic growth, pricing technology, and distribution innovation rather than large, risky acquisitions, which has helped protect competitive position.
Progressive’s long-running investment in usage-based insurance and digital purchasing channels is evidence of management making early, durable strategic bets.
No major current governance red flags are evident from the available information; historical claims-handling controversies appear to be legacy issues rather than an ongoing pattern.

AI Impact Assessment

Evaluating how AI strengthens or disrupts existing moat pillars

Net Reinforcer. AI mainly strengthens Progressive’s existing data-and-operations moat rather than creating a new standalone advantage. Its scale, two decades of telematics data, and 35+ million active policies give it training data that rivals cannot quickly replicate, especially in pricing, underwriting, and claims automation. The main moat pillar affected is informational edge: better risk selection and faster claims can improve loss ratio and retention. Less affected are brand and capital barriers, which still matter in insurance. The near-term uncertainty is whether AI meaningfully widens Progressive’s lead, or simply propagates similar efficiency gains across the industry and compresses underwriting margins over time.

AI Opportunity Highlights

6 / 10

Progressive’s proprietary telematics and driving-behavior dataset, built over two decades, can make pricing and underwriting models more accurate than those of newer entrants that lack comparable longitudinal data. That data asset is difficult to replicate quickly because it is tied to Progressive’s scale and installed customer base.
The company has disclosed an internal AI Strategy Council and use of predictive models that ingest unstructured inputs, including voice recordings, to trigger underwriting and claims decisions. That suggests AI is embedded in core operations rather than limited to customer-facing chat tools.
With more than 35 million active policies, Progressive can train models across a very large claims and policy dataset, improving automation rates and decision quality in ways that smaller insurers cannot match. Scale compounds model performance and reduces unit costs.
Progressive has used AI-generated creative in marketing, reportedly cutting campaign production time from roughly three months to under eight weeks. Faster experimentation can improve customer acquisition efficiency, especially in a highly competitive direct-to-consumer channel.

AI Threat Highlights

4 / 10

AI lowers the cost of building underwriting, claims, and customer-service workflows, which can help smaller insurers and insurtechs close some of the operating-efficiency gap. That reduces the extent to which process automation alone remains a durable moat.
AI-native players such as Lemonade have shown that chatbot-led onboarding and claims handling can create a frictionless customer experience. Even if their scale is smaller, they raise consumer expectations and put pressure on legacy insurers to match speed and simplicity.
AI-powered comparison and shopping tools can make auto insurance pricing more transparent and increase churn sensitivity. Because auto insurance is already a price-visible product, better AI search and matching tools can intensify margin pressure and weaken distribution advantages.
Foundation models can commoditize generic analytics and document-processing tasks, allowing competitors to deploy similar capabilities without investing in proprietary infrastructure. Progressive’s edge remains strongest where its own data is unique, but the more generic layers of the stack are easier to copy.

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Last Updated

Aug 6, 2026about 2 months ago

Target Price

Analyst Consensus

FAIR VALUE

Financial Strength

Financial Score

77/100

Executive Summary

Progressive’s most notable strength is its durable profitability, with strong underwriting momentum driving revenue from $49.6bn to $87.6bn over four years and net income from $0.7bn to $11.3bn, while TTM earnings remain above the latest full year. This earnings power is reinforced by solid cash generation, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both rising materially and capital returns remaining disciplined. The balance sheet is also conservative and well supported, as equity has expanded steadily, liabilities remain manageable, and leverage has declined, though the sharp drop in cash and short-term investments merits attention. Key ratios confirm the trend, with ROE, ROA, and margins all improving meaningfully. The main tension is in growth: forward revenue is still expected to rise, but EPS is forecast to ease, implying some margin normalization. Overall, PGR screens as financially strong and stable, consistent with its high ratings.

Income Statement

Revenue · Margins · Profitability

Section Score

8/10

Progressive shows strong, durable earnings momentum, with revenue rising from 49.6bn to 87.6bn over four years and TTM still up modestly versus FY2025, suggesting growth is normalizing rather than stalling. Net income expanded sharply from 0.7bn to 11.3bn, and TTM earnings remain slightly ahead of the latest full year, indicating continued profitability strength. The cost structure has climbed in absolute terms, but expenses have been broadly controlled relative to the scale of the business, supporting consistent margin improvement. Other income has also trended higher, though it is not the main driver. Overall, the pattern points to solid underwriting and earnings durability, with the main risk being slower growth after several very strong years.

Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified

Metric	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	TTM
Period Ending	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2025	Jun 30, 2026
Revenue	49,587	62,083	75,343	87,637	91,019
Revenue Growth	—	25.20%	21.36%	16.32%	3.86%
Net Income	722	3,903	8,480	11,308	11,695
Net Income Growth	—	440.58%	117.27%	33.35%	3.42%

Data as of Jun 30, 2026

Balance Sheet

Assets · Liabilities · Equity

Section Score

8/10

The balance sheet shows strong overall stability, with equity rising steadily from 15,891 in FY2022 to 30,323 in FY2025 and 34,333 on a TTM basis. Total assets also expanded consistently, reaching 123,039 in FY2025 and 124,925 TTM, while liabilities increased to 92,716 and then eased to 90,592 TTM, keeping equity positive and well supported. Liquidity appears solid, though cash and short-term investments fell sharply from 76,090 in FY2024 to 19,836 in FY2025 TTM, partially offset by higher receivables. Debt is modest relative to assets and equity, at 8,387 TTM. Overall, the structure is conservative, liquid, and consistent, with no major solvency red flags.

Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified

Metric	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	Current
Period Ending	Dec 31, 2021	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2025	Jun 30, 2026
Total Current Assets	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total Assets	—	75,465	88,691	105,745	123,039	124,925
Total Current Liabilities	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total Liabilities	—	59,574	68,414	80,154	92,716	90,592

Data as of Jun 30, 2026

Cash Flow Statement

Operations · Investing · Financing

Section Score

8/10

Cash generation has been strong and broadly stable, with operating cash flow rising from 6,849 in FY2022 to 17,548 in FY2025, while TTM remains high at 16,339 despite a modest 6.9% decline. Free cash flow is also solid, increasing from 6,557 to 17,200 over the same period after modest capital spending of 252–348. The large swings in purchase and sale of investments reflect portfolio management rather than operating stress. Working capital changes have been consistently positive, supporting cash flow, and the gap between net income and cash generation is manageable. Capital returns are meaningful, especially dividends paid of 2,871 in FY2025 and 8,147 TTM, with buybacks modest, indicating disciplined shareholder distributions.

Financials are in millions USD unless otherwise specified

Metric	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	TTM
Period Ending	Dec 31, 2021	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2025	Jun 30, 2026
Operating Cash Flow	—	6,849	10,643	15,119	17,548	16,339
Operating Cash Flow Growth	—	—	55.39%	42.06%	16.07%	-6.89%
Free Cash Flow	—	6,557	10,391	14,834	17,200	15,951
Free Cash Flow Growth	—	—	58.47%	42.76%	15.95%	-7.26%

Data as of Jun 30, 2026

Key Ratios

Liquidity · Leverage · Efficiency · Returns

Section Score

8.5/10

The company shows a steadily improving earnings profile across the period. ROE has risen sharply from the mid-single digits to the high-30s on an after-tax basis, while ROA has climbed to the upper-single digits, indicating strong profitability and effective use of capital. Margins have expanded materially, with net profit margin moving from about 1.5% to nearly 13%. Leverage is modest for this business model and has trended down, with debt-to-equity falling from 0.40 to 0.24, suggesting a more conservative balance sheet. Asset turnover is stable to slightly higher, which is consistent with the sector. Current and quick ratios are not meaningful here, so they are not used in the assessment.

Ratios are dimensionless unless otherwise noted

Metric	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025	Current
Period Ending	Dec 31, 2022	Dec 31, 2023	Dec 31, 2024	Dec 31, 2025	—
Profit Margin	1.46%	6.28%	11.25%	12.90%	12.90%
After Tax ROE	4.54%	19.25%	33.14%	37.29%	37.29%
Return on Assets	0.96%	4.40%	8.02%	9.19%	9.36%
Debt to Equity	0.4	0.34	0.27	0.23	0.24
P/E Ratio	91.35	34.63	17.41	12.5	10.68
Forward P/E	20.53	20.41	18.28	14.22	13.06

Data as of Dec 31, 2025

Growth

Revenue · EPS · Valuation · Estimates

Section Score

6/10

The company showed a sharp multi-year expansion, with revenue rising from 49.59B USD to 87.64B USD and EPS climbing strongly through FY 2025. The forward outlook still points to growth, but at a slower pace: revenue is expected to move from 87.29B USD to 92.64B USD, suggesting a clear deceleration rather than another surge. EPS is forecast to ease from 17.58088 to 16.286, indicating earnings pressure even as sales continue to edge higher, which implies margin moderation. Analyst sentiment is neutral overall, with a Hold consensus and a wide target range from 198 to 308 USD. Coverage from 21 analysts gives the consensus decent depth, while the recommendation mix has been broadly stable, with only small month-to-month shifts.

Analyst Price Targets

Low$198-6.94%

Median$226+6.22%

Average$229.81+8.01%

High$308+44.76%

HoldConsensus rating based on analyst coverage

21 analysts

Recommendation Trends

Rating	May '26	Jun '26	Jul '26	Aug '26
Strong Buy	4	4	3	3
Buy	4	4	4	4
Hold	16	14	16	16
Sell	1	2	1	1
Strong Sell	0	1	1	1
Total	25	25	25	25

Forecast · Analyst Estimates

Revenue This Year87.29B

+4.95%from 87.64B

FY 2026

Revenue Next Year92.64B

+6.12%from 87.29B

FY 2027

EPS This Year· non-GAAP adj.17.58

-3.64%

FY 2026

EPS Next Year· non-GAAP adj.16.29

-7.37%

FY 2027

Historical · Reported Actuals

Metric	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	49.59B	62.08B	75.34B	87.64B
Revenue Growth	—	+25.20%	+21.36%	+16.32%
EPS (GAAP diluted)	1.18	6.58	14.40	19.23
EPS Growth	—	+457.63%	+118.84%	+33.54%

Revenue in USD · EPS per share · Price targets in USD

Data as of Dec 31, 2025 · Forecast EPS is analyst non-GAAP adjusted; historical EPS is GAAP diluted — not directly comparable.

Fair Value Estimation

DDM · +131.0% Margin of Safety · Undervalued

AI Fair Value Estimate (DDM)

$491.48vs$212.76

Margin of Safety+131.0%

Undervalued — Margin of safety detected

A Dividend Discount Model is appropriate for Progressive because the company operates in a balance-sheet-driven financial business where dividend capacity is closely tied to underwriting profitability, investment income, and capital management. For a dividend-paying insurer, the dividend stream is a practical proxy for shareholder value, especially when earnings quality and payout policy are central to the equity case.

AI Valuation Verdict

A Dividend Discount Model is a sensible framework for Progressive because, as a financial institution, shareholder value is strongly linked to the durability and growth of distributable dividends. Using a trailing dividend of $14.04, an expected next-year dividend of $14.74, 5% sustainable growth, and an 8% required return, the model produces a fair value of $491.48 per share. That is well above the current $212.76 share price, implying a 131% margin of safety and an undervalued verdict. The result is most sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions: stronger long-term dividend growth or a lower required return would support upside, while slower growth or a higher hurdle rate would weaken the case.

Key Valuation Ratios

Current vs 5-year average

PE Ratio

10.68x

4Y avg 38.97x

-72.6% vs avg

Forward PE

13.06x

4Y avg 18.36x

-28.9% vs avg

P/FCF Ratio

7.79x

No history available

PS Ratio

1.36x

4Y avg 1.67x

-18.7% vs avg

A multiple below its own multi-year average can indicate the stock is cheaper than its recent history — context, not a standalone signal.

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Last Updated

Aug 6, 2026

Short Term

Medium Term

Long Term

Price Outlook

$212.76Price at Analysis

The path of least resistance is modestly higher, with the most probable next move a probe toward $213.70 and then $215.54 if buyers can defend the $211.42–$210.04 support zone. The key downside risk is a loss of that cluster, which would expose $209.58 and $207.02 as the next support levels.

Technical Overview

PGR’s technical profile is constructive overall, but it is not a straight-line bullish setup. Short-term signals are conflicted: price is hovering near the daily pivot and above key longer moving averages, yet MACD remains bearish and volume is fading, which limits immediate momentum. The medium and long-term structures are healthier, with price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and a recent Golden Cross reinforcing the broader uptrend. The most important levels to watch are $211.42 and $210.04 on the downside, where near-term and weekly support converge, and $219.58 to $231.83 on the upside, where resistance could cap advances if momentum does not strengthen. Overall, the chart favors consolidation with a positive longer-term bias.

Short Term

1 to 4 weeks

Neutral

PGR’s short-term setup is mixed: price is holding just above the daily pivot while remaining slightly below the 20-day moving average, but the MACD trend is bearish and volume is contracting. RSI at 58.4 is constructive but not decisive, leaving the 1–4 week outlook without strong momentum confirmation.

Key Indicators

Price vs 20-day MA-0.99% below

Price vs 50-day MA+0.68% above

RSI (14-day)58.4

RSI InterpretationNeutral

MACD TrendBearish (below signal)

Bollinger PositionMiddle

Volume TrendContracting

Support

$211.42$209.58$208.19

Resistance

$213.70$215.54$217.13

The closest near-term level is the daily pivot at $212.56, with immediate resistance at $213.7 and support at $211.42. A retest of $213.7 looks likely in the 1–4 week window, while failure there would put $211.42 and then $209.58 into play.

Medium Term

1 to 6 months

Bullish

The medium-term picture is supported by price trading above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and by the recent Golden Cross, which keeps the trend structurally positive. That said, the stock is still only modestly above key averages and sits in the middle of its 52-week range, so the trend is bullish rather than emphatic.

Key Indicators

Price vs 50-day MA+0.68% above

Price vs 200-day MA+1.02% above

52-Week Range PositionMiddle third (36%)

Trend DirectionUptrend

MA Cross SignalGolden Cross territory

Relative Volume0.66x avg

Support

$210.04$207.02$202.13

Resistance

$219.58$222.85$227.75

Weekly pivots show support at $210.04, which sits just below the 50-day area, creating a useful confluence zone, while resistance at $219.58 is the first meaningful upside target above the weekly pivot at $214.94. Over 1–6 months, the stock is likely to probe both the $210.04 support area and the $219.58 resistance level as the trend develops.

Long Term

6 months and beyond

Bullish

Over the longer horizon, PGR remains positioned above its 200-day moving average and within an established uptrend, which favors continued structural strength. The middle-third 52-week range position tempers conviction, but the recent Golden Cross and stable placement above major trend support keep the long-term bias positive.

Key Indicators

Price vs 200-day MA+1.02% above

52-Week High$254.93

52-Week Low$189.20

Distance from 52w High-16.5%

BB Bandwidth16.5%

MA CrossoverRecent Golden Cross (2 days ago)

Support

$204.09$196.54$181.66

Resistance

$231.83$240.39$254.26

The monthly structure is framed by support at $204.09 and then $196.54, with major resistance layered at $231.83 and $240.39 before the 52-week high at $254.26. Over 6+ months, the market will likely test the monthly pivot band near $217.96 and, if trend momentum persists, eventually challenge the upper boundary near $231.83.

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Frequently asked questions about The Progressive Corporation

Does The Progressive Corporation (PGR) have an economic moat?: MoatScan AI rates The Progressive Corporation (PGR) 67/100 for moat strength, assessed across five sources of competitive advantage: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages and efficient scale. Progressive has built one of the stronger positions in U.S.Sign in free to see the Moat Type verdict and the pillar-by-pillar reasoning.
What is The Progressive Corporation's moat score?: The Progressive Corporation (PGR) has a moat score of 67/100. The score is a weighted average of five pillar ratings: network effects, switching costs, intangible assets, cost advantages, and efficient scale. A higher score means the competitive advantages MoatScan AI identifies are wider and more durable.Sign in free to see each pillar rating, the Moat Type verdict and the moat trend.
Is PGR stock overvalued or undervalued?: MoatScan AI answers this by estimating PGR's intrinsic value with a dividend discount model (DDM) model, then comparing that estimate to the current market price. A share price meaningfully below the estimate is flagged undervalued; meaningfully above it, overvalued. The estimate updates with each new financial analysis.Sign in free to see the fair value estimate, the implied upside or downside, and the verdict.
What is The Progressive Corporation's fair value estimate?: MoatScan AI derives The Progressive Corporation's (PGR) fair value per share from a dividend discount model (DDM) model built on the company's reported financials, analyst growth forecasts, and a discount rate reflecting its cost of capital. The Financial Analysis tab shows the estimate alongside every assumption behind it.Sign in free to see the estimate and the full assumptions behind it.

Disclaimer: The analysis on this page is generated by AI and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

PGR$212.76

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Frequently asked questions about The Progressive Corporation

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